Nate Silver Is Seeing Red........

The Wizard of the 2012 Election Is Seeing a Republican Senate ....... And That
Just May Be Good For Barack Obama and America.

        Like we have said, and will continue to say over and over, our job here is to cut through the bullshit, and give you the straight dope.   It drives us crazy when politicians will use info from somewhere because it agrees with their needs, but ignore other info when it disagrees with them.  It's called Cherrypicking - and we can't stand it.  So, we will try to introduce you to a couple people that apparently see things with a clear eye. 


       First off, we bring you Nate Silver. Honestly, we never heard of Nate, until his 538 website just about correctly called the 2012 Presidential Election.  We kind of thought he was possibly a partisan hack, but apparently, he's just using data.  When everyone thought that Mitt Romney was going to give Barack Obama a run for his money two years ago, Silver said all the swing states would go Obama's way - and he was right.  Well, now Silver is focusing on the numbers from the states with Senate seats up for grabs - and he says the odds of the GOP taking control is about 64%.   Not a mathematical certainty, but that's pretty good.  Of course, one mistake or two by a GOP candidate, and it all could change.....


    During the discussion of it on This Week, we learned one thing, and thought of another.  First, we saw how the staleness of the Democrat's ticket emotes an sense of entitlement, similar to the House of Lords.  Of the seats up for grabs, four of them are Democratic political legacies - Mary Landrieu, Mark Pryor, Mark Begich and Michelle Nunn.  Honestly, we hate when the seemingly only possible choice for an outgoing Senator or Congressman is his spouse or child...........  Of course, South Carolina is no stranger to this.  We have our Campbells, Ravenels - and someday in the 6th District, the Clyburns. 


   Now, with the real possibility of Barack Obama having to deal with a Republican majority in both houses, you'd think he'd be bummed out for the last two years of his term, before heading off to the golf course.  We disagree.  In fact, if Obama plays his cards right, backs off the political rhetoric, and is the adult in the room, this could be a great opportunity for America - oh, and his legacy. 


    What are we talking about?  THE DEAL.  The Big Deal.  Or even a small deal or two.  Lets face it - DC has been a wasteland for bipartisanship since 2000.  It's no coincidence that the last good bipartisan agreement from DC was the Welfare Reforms in 1995.  Go back in your memory, and remember the setup:  Democrat President, Republican House and Senate.  It's almost the best scenario for decent compromise and change, without going overboard, like when it's a clean sweep.


   Here's why it works.....     The problem right now is you have jerkoffs like Harry Reid and John Boehner running the majorities, from opposite sides.  Nothing they pass is anything close to what the other side is passing.  That doesn't allow for the all-important reconciliation that finalizes change to occur.  Now if you're a Republican, you're thinking you can pass anything you want........  Wrong.  Why? One word:  VETO.  Obama can veto any bill, and it would have to be overridden - a near impossibility. But, the veto is his only option, and Americans - even disinterested ones - don't want to the President act like a veto machine.  No one likes a One-Man Obstruction Crew.......


     There is only one answer - a deal.  Any kind of deal, on a full array of issues.   The one good thing is that we may finally have a clearing up of the confusion on Capitol Hill that were put in place by the voters.  See, it IS your fault.......... It is out best hope right now.  Capitol Hill is where all the problems start.........but it's also when the solutions come from legislatively.  It has to be.


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Cartoon of the Week......

       It's Sunday again, and that means it's time for cartoons!   We need to look harder here, because Real Clear Politics isn't exactly giving us a lot to choose from..... This was the best we could find.  The way things are going. we might need to limit the Presidency to on term, because the second term malaises being suffered by the last few occupants of the White House have us wondering.   Barack Obama definitely seems to be cashing it in lately.  If the Senate goes Republican, he might just give up................... or would it?


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I'm Calling my Ex-Wife, and Thanking Her As Soon As I Finish This Post....

The Mark and Jenny Sanford Show Gets Ugly in Public Again.....

     Honestly, I hate posting on this stuff.   I liked the Sanford's a lot.  When I was running for office, Jenny Sanford was one of my bigger fans amongst the SCGOP Elite.  Mark Sanford had a lot of good ideas when he was Governor, although his inability to work with his detractors killed any success he could have had....  But, this is SC6 - and when something in SC happens, we try to cover something about it - unwillingly or not.


     The Sanford's and I do have one thing in common - we've both gone through a divorce.  The difference is mine was a zero sum divorce, meaning there were little to no assets and kids to fight over.  The irony was I was 32, and my wife was 26, but we handled our divorce with the maturity that neither of us had during  it.  In fact, I took her to lunch after the hearing, which left Judge Patsy shaking her head in disbelief......  And in the 13 years since, it has continued. No, I rarely see her, but we have mutual friends, so we hear about each other.  I've always joked that we had the most amicable divorce in history. You'd think that a couple that has more cash that 99% of the rest of us would move on, and live out their lives in happiness could figure it out as well, but........


     Reading an article in The Hill, it appears that the Battling Sanfords of Sullivan's Island are still counting points.  According to the article, Jenny filed a complaint in court that asks for Mark to have limited visits with their youngest son, who is now 16 years old. In addition, she seeks to "prevent both parents from exposing the teenager to any “overnight” guests of the opposite sex, not related to the parents, “who could reasonably be construed as a paramour," and from bad-mouthing the other parent or the family in the teen’s presence, the TV station reported.
Jenny Sanford’s complaint also asks for a civil restraining order barring her ex-husband from entering or trying to enter her home "without explicit prior written approval.”


    Reading between the lines, Mrs. Sanford thinks Mr. Sanford's fiancée  is a slut, who is downing her in front of the son.  Poor taste, yes. But, is this really something to drag into court?  We have no idea if this is what Jenny was told by the son, or if she is getting that impression, and she's acting upon it.  Either way, this will get ugly - and public - fast.  The son is 16, so he undoubtedly will be dragged into court to testify. If he is getting sick of seeing his Dad with his Argentinian girlfriend, he needs to spout up, and explain that Dad's pissing him off....... He's old enough to give an opinion on this. 

   No matter what the reason, the Sanfords need to grow up a bit. Mark needs to remember that it's NOT his house anymore.  If you're coming, you gotta call first.  And Jenny has to find a way to sit Mark down and have a mature discussion on things, without involving her attorney.  You know.........like regular people do.  I'll end it here - I have a phone call to make.....


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The Flaw That Will Lead to ISIS' Downfall.........

Don't Expect to Keep That Flag Planted for Long, Buddy.......

    OK, time to look into out crystal ball, and try to predict the future - for it is only by being able to say, 'See, I told you so.' that people start believing you.  So, here we go......  Without a doubt, ISIS is the biggest current threat to Iraq and Syria. Bigger than Al-Qaeda, without a doubt.  Why?  By it's sheer violence alone.  Al-Qaeda was pretty bad, but with the loss of Osama bin Laden, and the withdrawal of US troops, they aren't as bad as they used to be.   ISIS however, has taken the ball and run, killing any possible person who disagrees with them.  Even Al-Qaeda couldn't hold them back. Now what about the threat to the West?  That remains to be seen, and it depends on what we do in the coming months....


     That's all in the future, but we're focusing on now for today. We can argue for days on the best way to control and end ISIS.  Barack Obama and the folks at the Pentagon will come up with a game plan eventually.  We're all hoping the first step wasn't bombing Al-Shabaab, because they missed ISIS by 1000 miles or so....... No, we will be focusing on if they will end, and how.   We here don't think IF is a big question.  ISIS will be pretty much crushed..  But we have a specific reason on WHY ISIS will almost disappear, and Al-Qaeda will be the leading terrorist threat.


    What is it?  Well, ISIS is pretty similar to Al-Qaeda in many ways:  they are both violent, fundamentalist terror groups that are angry with western influence in the Middle East.  But, there is one difference in ISIS that will be there downfall - The Caliphate.


     Al-Qaeda's has mainly been a terrorist group that basically wants to create havoc in an area, while laying low in whatever area they inhabit.  They are mobile, they are hard to pinpoint, and they don't try to incorporate whatever area they are in.  ISIS' goal is to create an Islamic State - and it will ruin them.  Every nation has a limit of just how much territory they can control.  It's like a bubble - at some point, a nation gets overextended, and it's bubble will burst.   Think about Germany in WWII... Hitler's dream of world domination ended when he invaded Britain and Russia - and eventually the United States entered.  They couldn't protect all that territory, even when they overmatched their opponents.  ISIS is at a decided disadvantage.... Look at what's happened the past few weeks:  They got stopped in any and every place we've hit them. Hell, even the Iraqi Army is starting to slow them down....

      The United States military had trouble keeping Iraq safe with 140,000 soldiers with the best equipment available.  What are the odds of a few thousand relatively low-financed terrorists - mostly made up of western suckers who don't have the skills that Al-Qaeda has - keeping control of Iraq and Syria?  Very,very low.......  Steps 2,3,4 and 5 will take little time to decide.  Personally, we think the best move later is to get rid of the most dangerous of Bashar Assad's enemies - then turn it on him to force a resignation from him.  But, the first step is to continue the assault on ISIS from the air, and pound them into a corner.  They can't control all that territory.  Yes, we will lose a few hostages in a very public fashion.  But during all of that, we will save thousands of lives.  No one wants ISIS there.  Every leader in the Middle East will thank us, then turn a blind eye.  But, stopping ISIS in it's tracks now will be easy. Maintaining a Caliphate takes a lot of manpower and work - and they seem incapable of doing it.  It's not a compliment, but Al-Qaeda was smarter.......

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History Quiz Time: What Day is Today?

Yeah, It's Monday. It's Labor Day.  But ..........

     Happy Labor Day, everyone!  We hope you are enjoying the holiday by not working - or doing anything, for that matter.  We're watching Nat Geo Channel's 80's and 90's retrospective shows....   Yeah, it's a day to let the batteries recharge.  We had a good post to write, but we'll let it wait til tomorrow.

     Not everyday is a day for politics - even for us.  But, we couldn't help but remember that today was September 1st.  It's one of the most important dates in history, although many Americans don't know it.  We recognize another date, because we tend to be a little self-important.  Still guessing?  OK, we'll make it easier. It's the 75th anniversary..........


    Yes, on September 1st 1939, the Nazi's invaded Poland, which started World War II - the most important event of the 20th Century.  While most Americans know December 7th, September 1st is not as well-known. But we're history buffs, because knowing the past helps aid future decisions, which we will show tomorrow.  Anyway, thanks for reading, and we hope we didn't make youthink too much!

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The Return of Cartoons of the Week.....

   It's time for the return of one of our staple posts - Cartoons of the Week.  We had as slight change, as TIME Magazine doesn't seem to do it anymore. Maybe they have to pay for them. That's not a problem we have to worry about, as long as we give credit, right?  So, thank you to Real Clear Politics for giving us the access to keep our Sunday Morning tradition going......


   We'll start with two this week.... First, the 'revelation' from Senator Kirsten Gillibrand's new book, where she says a couple colleagues (translation: Congressmen) told her, 'It's good you're working out - you don't want to get porky.'   Hmm...... Congressmen that say the wrong thing?  NAAAHHHHH !!!!!   Maybe they're right.  Twenty pounds, and the hottest woman in the Senate becomes Mary Landrieu.  But, there are better ways of putting things.  Not that I'm an expert on it.....





     Now, we're not sure if the NRA defended what happened at the Burgers & Bullets in Arizona this week.  We're all for educating kids on proper use of firearms, and a large portion of fault lies with the instructor, who's paid dearly for it.  But, anyone who knows jack about shooting knows an Uzi with 20 rounds in the clip will get away from anyone, much less a 9 year old girl.  Sorry folks, but underage kids need to learn about firearms one shot at a time on a squirrel rifle.  You wouldn't teach a kid to drive in a Lamborghini, would you?






  

       Lastly,  it's been a rough week for the President.  No, there's never been a good time to play golf, which is why we never to seem to have time for it...... But a poorly timed round can make that sand trap turn into quicksand fast.   Minus ISIS, Syria and Ukraine, we expect it is going to be a very quiet Autumn for Barack Obama...... Which leaves plenty of time for golf!


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What Ever Happened to Just Trying to Garner Votes?

Does Mary Landrieu Still Live With Her Parents, Or Has a Tea Party Senate  Candidate Decided That It's Easier to Knock a Competitor Out on a Lame Technicality? 

    This one snuck up on us today.... We remember the good, old days - when you ran for office, paid your entry fee, participated in a Primary, and if you lost, you went away until the next time.   If the past couple years has taught us anything, it's that politics is attracting a bunch of crybabies.....


    Our first recollection of when it hit the crapper was the Great Financial Disclosure fiasco of South Carolina in 2012, when improper filing cost almost 200 candidates statewide to have to drop out.  Not that it really had anything to do with whether any of them really should have been denied entry - it just made it 50 times harder,with no time to do it...Thanks again, Jake Knotts. Well, 2014 has seen the childlike sideways entry into trying to win an election go into hyperdrive......


    First, we had Chris McDaniel cry foul after the people who were sleeping in the first Primary finally got up and voted for Thad Cochran in the runoff.  By the way, his complaint finally was thrown out yesterday - for filing late.  Then after the SCGOP held their Senate Primary, Thomas Ravenel, late of Southern Charm fame, enters as a write-in candidate for Lindsey Graham's seat.  It was pretty obvious that Ravenel had been planning a run for sometime, but knowing that he had NO CHANCE of beating Graham, he has gone the other route.  So far, Ravenel has failed to catch fire in a way to win, though whether he can syphon enough Tea Party votes to make Graham lose to Brad Hutto remains to be seen. If his goal was to win, he got some bad advice......


     Now, we give you Rob Maness.  He's the Tea Party choice for US Senate in Louisiana, currently held by Mary Landrieu.  She's running for a fourth term, and her family's political history is almost as well-known as Gumbo and The Saints..... Like most Tea Party entries this year, Maness is laying spoiler.  But, like most things they do, Louisiana plays the primary differently.  They don't have party primaries - all the candidates run together, and the top two move on to the finals.  In a state like Looosiana, Maness could possibly, but not probably, make it to the General Election.   So, in a move that can be best described as a desperate hope at catching political lightning in a bottle - but more correctly, it's a stunt - Maness sued to have Landrieu taken off the ballot, because..............wait for it............... she's not a Louisiana resident.   Give us a minute, while we take a break to laugh our asses off.

      OK, we're back.  Hold on...........  HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!   Sorry.   Apparently, Landrieu doesn't own a home in Louisiana.  Her house is in DC.  On her disclosure form, her parents house in Nawlins is her home.  Splitting hairs a bit here, aren't we.  If this were Hillary Clinton just moving into town and running for Senate, maybe Maness' complaint would have merit.  But living in the real world, we understand that $174k doesn't pay for a pad in both DC and New Orleans - at least not a decent place. If Maness is trying to point out that Landrieu has emplanted herself in Washington, rather than her home state, he's right. But, tell us something we don't know.  Most Senators have a place there.  If I were working in DC for six years, I'd buy a place too.  She's been there 18.  To us,it seems like she's doing the fiscally responsible thing, and hanging with Mom & Pop Pop.  So, our answer to the complaint is 'Yeah, But'.......... However, like most Tea Party plans, it's shortsighted and ultimately, it will fail...........


      Let us explain.  There are three candidates: Landrieu, Maness, and GOP establishment candidate Bill Cassidy.  Now suppose by some strange twist of fate, in a world where up is down, down is up, and Tea Party pixie dust snows everywhere, that Landrieu ACTUALLY was taken off the ballot.  What is left?  Right Wing Maness and Centrist Cassidy.  In a state where Democrats still make up close to half of the votes, who do you think they will vote for?  Oh wait........ since Landrieu isn't on the ballot, everyone will stay home.  Just try to restrict the number of voters, and maybe they can steal a Senate seat.  Nah. Gunnah. Happuh.......... Democrats will show up - there are still Congressional seats, and probably stuff that matters more to them - like Sheriff and Dogcatcher.  All signs point to fail.


     It's another example of the Tea Party's Scorched Earth policy.  They don't care what people think, how they look in doing what they do, or even if they lose.  If they can point to at least one trivial thing that they got, they consider it a victory. And they wonder why Democrats attack them whenever they get a chance.  Good Luck with this one, Col. Rob!

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Why Beach Music People Suck.....

Pardon Us as We Commit Blasphemy Against One of the Carolinas' Biggest Traditions....

    Now, I know what you're thinking..... You're saying 'Hey Reino, this is a political blog. What does Beach Music have to do with politics?'  Well trust us - it IS a political story. It just takes a minute to get there.... But to preface here, we don't have a problem with Beach Music or Shagging in general. We like almost all kinds of music.  Like many things in life we don't like, it's not the music we hate..............it's their fans.


    Onto the story.   Since I moved to Laurinburg 2 years ago, I've purposely stayed away from politics here. But, I did feel the need to try and join some type of social groups to meet people.  I joined the local Catholic church, and I joined the Chamber of Commerce.  We have the Friday After Five during the summer months, and this year's events were pretty successful.  About ten of us work the events, and plan and book the bands.  The bands aren't cheap..... They cost between $1500-3000 this year, so booking a band that will draw is important, or the Chamber loses money.  We had four events, and two of the bands were Beach Music-type bands - The Fantastic Shakers and The Tams.  We also booked Sea Cruz, but they canceled...  Well, word came back to us that the owner of one of the local furniture stores wanted to sit with us to book a band whose leader was from Laurinburg.  I haven't seen them play, but word is the bands we had booked were better. They also were a beach band, and word was he wanted us to book all beach bands.  Herein lies the problem.....


     I've dealt with this problem before, so I already saw it coming.  Like I said, Beach Music is cool.  The problem is Beach Music Fans don't play well with others.... What this guy was proposing is we pay about $1000-2000 MORE per band, that we move it to Thursday because Beach Music people leave for the coast every weekend for the Summer, and maybe we'll have more people come.  Laurinburg is 50/50 when it comes to racial makeup, and 75% are under the age of 60,which is what these old, white and generally wealthy people are.  Yeah, they pull out their dorky son or daughter who shags.  But as a member of Chamber Committee, and lead singer in a band for 25 years, my job is to try to find bands that EVERYONE would like to see.  Not four straight Beach Bands that maybe 50 people will come see.  BTW, we charge ONE DOLLAR to attend these events.  It's a steal........


    So, meeting day comes this week, and since I have to work til 530,I show up late.  So the Furniture Man makes his pitch.......... I'll give $1000 as a sponsor of the band, but I want some say, and a kickback of some of the revenue. And as I usually do, I am watching, listening, but not talking.  Finally after hearing all sides, I do something that freaks Furniture Man out - I whisper into the ear of the lady next to me.  What did I say?   I HAVE A SOLUTION TO THIS...........


    So the meeting ends, and Furniture Man comes to me, and asks who I am.  It turns out that Furniture Man is the MAYOR OF LAURINBURG.....   As I usually do, I make enemies without even trying!  He may think that, but I'm a compromiser, and like I said, I had a solution:  book the band for the July gig that didn't make much money, give them Thursday and book the rest for Friday, and give them $1000 bucks less for playing on an off-night.  If they don't like it, screw 'em. As for the Mayor, tell him to keep his $1000 - we got this one.  Everyone gets a little of what they want, and Laurinburg After Five doesn't become the Summer Shag Series.  Trust me, being in a band for so long, I know that I have to play songs I don't like. But open social events require it. 


    My advice to the Shag People is to continue to go to your rotation of clubs like Grateful Dead fans.  I'd like to see MUSE or Pearl Jam play Laurinburg. I'm sure we'd draw a ton of out of town people, the hotels would book out, and the Chamber would be flush with cash.  But, I live in an integrated community of varying age groups.  We're trying to keep blacks and even young people happy.  But from what I've ever seen, Beach Music people are self-centered, pushy, and obnoxious.  My world revolves around people other than myself, which is why I'm a good public servant........... and some aren't.

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Funny Facebook Post of the Day...

       We're bringing back some of our favorite recurring posts from the past.   One of our favorites was the daily Facebook posts.  Some are political, but all we care about is if it makes us laugh.  We snagged this one from my friend and drummer from my band, Big Bri.  He always had black cats, one of which I adopted and named Mosh.  Good cat.......... This coming from a guy who'sfavorite bumper sticker was "I Love Cats - Dead Ones"!

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Who's Ruining America , Part II - Gerrymandering

When Your Congressional District Looks Like a Game of Space Invaders, Be Pretty Sure It's Gerrymandered........

      Happy Labor Day Weekend to everyone!  It's been a long week for us, so the prospect of having the next three days off with little to do came just in time.  Kicking off the rebirth of SC6, we are trying to define what needs fixing in American Politics.  Yesterday was an easy and popular target.  Today, we are going into a lesser know, but even more dangerous cause of our current mess: Gerrymandering.


     For those political neophytes out there, gerrymandering is when the lines of a district are manipulated to give a certain party or candidate a decided advantage.  Simply put, it's rigging the game.  Ask most strategists, military or otherwise, what's the most effective way to win a fight, and most will tell you to fix the battle ahead of time.  Most battles are won BEFORE they are fought.........   

   Above, you see the 4th Congressional District of Illinois, which for the past 21 years has been held by Luis Gutierrez.  I didn't pull up his election results, but it's safe to say that he probably hasn't encountered much of a challenge in his 11 terms.  The 4th is widely regarded as one of the best examples of gerrymandering.   Clearly, when they made the district map, they had the two major section northwest and southwest of Chicago, and they needed to find a path of least resistance to connect the two. Hence, the west loop that is probably about two blocks wide..... 


   Now you might be thinking this isn't a big deal, but the problem is this goes on all over the country, in every national, state and local district.  Don't believe me?  Just check out your state senator or representative's district map.... While you'd like to blame the other party for the problem, here is the saddest part - BOTH parties set it up in coercion.  Yep, just look at South Carolina as an example.  It's a pretty red state, with Republicans usually winning statewide by about 10%.    With seven districts, common sense would dictate that the seats would be split 4-3 in favor of Republicans. Nope, it's 6-1........... and that one isn't changing hands anytime.  Why, because it's agreed to by all congressmen involved.  The 6th District is set up like scraping up table scraps of minority voters to give Jim Clyburn a permanent 67% cakewalk every two years in perpetuity.  If he gave up some of his voters, Democrats might actually have a second or possibly third congressman in Washington......

    While congressmen get an idea of the district map long before it comes down the pike, it is eventually OK'd by the Justice Department.  But, if you're waiting for the day that DoJ comes down on a district that is overwhelmingly in favor of minority congressmen, don't hold your breath.... Both Democrats and Republicans have no problem with the current setup, because Republicans have a pretty good idea that if not for gerrymandering, they might NEVER control the House of Representatives.  Cozy arrangement indeed.....

    Now, here is the part that should worry you. First, a warning....... If you are a super Left Wing or Right Winger, I am about to piss you off.   Gerrymandering ultimately hurts America by making these districts MORE red, and MORE blue.  It's estimated that 90-95% of Congress gets re-elected every two years.  Why? Because they have little to no competition. What little competition there is usually comes from within the party from a more extreme sect.  So eventually, the districts become more and more extreme, and the center whittles away.  In 2010, I did a post which named the 20 congressmen/women as 'the easiest to get along with' by the other party.  By 2013, 16 of them were out of Congress, and three of them were dead.....

     Back in the 80's, the members of Congress used to go to the bar, have a drink, and work out whatever issue was at hand.  Now, simply being in a picture with a member of the opposing party is grounds for a primary challenge....   Why?  Because of gerrymandering, and because the 80% of sensible voters stopping showing up at off-year and primary elections, surrendering the power to the extreme and motivated 20%.  It's unlikely to go away.  The Get Out The Vote programs are so detailed, they know which houses to knock on, and which to skip, and pray they forget it's Election Day.

    While more competitive districts make it harder to keep control of Congress, they ultimately empower the moderates to run Congress, leading to compromise and legislation that eventually can help end the gridlock and lack of action that we pay these clowns (Bobby?) $174,000 a year to do......

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