Don't Expect to Keep That Flag Planted for Long, Buddy.......
OK, time to look into out crystal ball, and try to predict the future - for it is only by being able to say, 'See, I told you so.' that people start believing you. So, here we go...... Without a doubt, ISIS is the biggest current threat to Iraq and Syria. Bigger than Al-Qaeda, without a doubt. Why? By it's sheer violence alone. Al-Qaeda was pretty bad, but with the loss of Osama bin Laden, and the withdrawal of US troops, they aren't as bad as they used to be. ISIS however, has taken the ball and run, killing any possible person who disagrees with them. Even Al-Qaeda couldn't hold them back. Now what about the threat to the West? That remains to be seen, and it depends on what we do in the coming months....
That's all in the future, but we're focusing on now for today. We can argue for days on the best way to control and end ISIS. Barack Obama and the folks at the Pentagon will come up with a game plan eventually. We're all hoping the first step wasn't bombing Al-Shabaab, because they missed ISIS by 1000 miles or so....... No, we will be focusing on if they will end, and how. We here don't think IF is a big question. ISIS will be pretty much crushed.. But we have a specific reason on WHY ISIS will almost disappear, and Al-Qaeda will be the leading terrorist threat.
What is it? Well, ISIS is pretty similar to Al-Qaeda in many ways: they are both violent, fundamentalist terror groups that are angry with western influence in the Middle East. But, there is one difference in ISIS that will be there downfall - The Caliphate.
Al-Qaeda's has mainly been a terrorist group that basically wants to create havoc in an area, while laying low in whatever area they inhabit. They are mobile, they are hard to pinpoint, and they don't try to incorporate whatever area they are in. ISIS' goal is to create an Islamic State - and it will ruin them. Every nation has a limit of just how much territory they can control. It's like a bubble - at some point, a nation gets overextended, and it's bubble will burst. Think about Germany in WWII... Hitler's dream of world domination ended when he invaded Britain and Russia - and eventually the United States entered. They couldn't protect all that territory, even when they overmatched their opponents. ISIS is at a decided disadvantage.... Look at what's happened the past few weeks: They got stopped in any and every place we've hit them. Hell, even the Iraqi Army is starting to slow them down....
The United States military had trouble keeping Iraq safe with 140,000 soldiers with the best equipment available. What are the odds of a few thousand relatively low-financed terrorists - mostly made up of western suckers who don't have the skills that Al-Qaeda has - keeping control of Iraq and Syria? Very,very low....... Steps 2,3,4 and 5 will take little time to decide. Personally, we think the best move later is to get rid of the most dangerous of Bashar Assad's enemies - then turn it on him to force a resignation from him. But, the first step is to continue the assault on ISIS from the air, and pound them into a corner. They can't control all that territory. Yes, we will lose a few hostages in a very public fashion. But during all of that, we will save thousands of lives. No one wants ISIS there. Every leader in the Middle East will thank us, then turn a blind eye. But, stopping ISIS in it's tracks now will be easy. Maintaining a Caliphate takes a lot of manpower and work - and they seem incapable of doing it. It's not a compliment, but Al-Qaeda was smarter.......
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