You are not misreading us - the recession is over, and it has been for the past 15 months! There, you now are armed with the facts, and are hereby ordered to go on with your lives and stop whining about how shitty the economy is, and the act that you don't have a job. Your excuses are unwarranted - Happy Days are here again.....
Actually, this IS a true story, at least to the geeks in the economics department at Cambridge... And technically speaking, it is correct - at least in economic terms. According to the Egghead Board, the Recession of 2007 officially ended in June 2009 - a whopping 18 months of economic decline, the worst since World War II. For those of you looking around, and thinking 'Wednesday, Thursday, Friday?', we will explain...
If you are a Cambridge Economic Geek, chances are you are locked in a dark room, with a cigar and a sifter of brandy, overlooking tons of 'empirical data'... A recession officially is a period of time when the indicators all are Goin' South. So, when last Summer came - and stuff just slightly blipped up, or at least leveled off- the Geek will decide that the recession is over. The sad part is he is probably correct. The sadder part is the actual truth we now face....
Truth be known, the economy actualy was worse last year than it is now. Corporations are doing better, unemployment is down just barely, but not dropping. Essentially, we've hit bottom - but it's a new bottom, at least for now. We're in a gestation period of the flat-lined economy. A sort of 'General Economic Malaise' to use a term from Jimmy Carter.... This is the New Economy perhaps. Yeah, it could be getting worse next year, but don't expect it to getting better anytime in the immediate future.
We do remain hopeful for 2011: like we said, companies are doing more with less, but they will need more, and inventories are going up slightly,meaning that pre-orders are rising, which is a good sign. A major possibility of economic upswing? A new Congress.... We try not to tie in politics and economics too much, but Business is scared shitless from what the Democrats have done the past 2 years. We have the feeling that a Republican majority or at least a split in the houses will calm Business down, and give them the green light to hire at least a few people. To us, 2011 looks like a very slow growth year. If you're expecting a boom to occur, do not hold your breath. Last decade was an amalgamation of factors by both business and consumers spending too much on shit they didn't need, and now is when we all face facts... A boom isn't coming at all, which probably is good.
No, we don't blow smoke up your ass.. But we do try to let you know when it's OK to go in the street, bang on a few pots, and celebrate the end of the Recession. Too late you missed it!
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1 comment:
Mike-calling this depression/recession over is comprabable saying WW2 ended in May or August 1945. The fighting was over but we still had to win the peace. The same is true here, the question is have we hit bottom or is this a "false bottom"?
I agree with you,to a point, on the elections and hiring in 2011. But there are several factors that will come in to play: 1)what damage does the 2010 lame duck Congress cause between Nov 2010 and Jan. 2011; 2)after the new Congress is seated,what is the relationship going to be between it and the Obama Administration;3)but most importantly, Congress,Obama,local and state goverments aside, do the voters/taxpayors/people of this country feel that there is a prospect of a "new day" in America? The alternative is similar to what the Japanese faced in the 1990's and "lost decade", which some economists/business/political forecasters think we are headed into.
While no one can predict the future(except a couple of ex's of mine)I think most will agree that the current track Obama and the democrats have us on is the wrong one, it remains to be seen who in the GOP offers an alternative and what it is. One thing I can assure you, be prepared to hear "are you better off now than you were four years ago?"...that phrase will haunt Obama and the democrats from now through Nov 2012 much as it did in 1980. What remains to be seem is will the outcome be the same?...teg
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