In the coming weeks, Republicans in the Palmetto State will head to Columbia to drink their asses off, schmooze, get their pictures taken, raise money - oh yeah, and select a new Chairman, along with passing any changes to the party platform. In that order....
Much to everyone's disappointment, i will not be attending the SCGOP Silver Elephant Dinner or the Convention - AWWWWWWWW!!!!! You'll have to trudge on without me. I went to three of these as a candidate and delegate, so I can see the difference between the ones I went to. Katon Dawson ran unopposed on the first two, and the last one appeared ready to be a tight battle - that is, until Kevin Hall dropped out due to health issues, clearing the path for a realtively easy win for Karen Floyd.
We don't see this ging on in 2011.... Now, we haven't been tracking Straw Polls for SCGOP Chair with a fine toothed comb, but we have read a bunch of them as they've come in, and to us, there is no clear winner. Barring a dropout of one of the two leaders will mean we will be heading for a long, multivote battle for our next leader.
Each candidate has won a poll, with Bill Connor and Chad Connelly showing the best overall results. Stephen Brown won Charleston handily (hometown vote?), but lagged elsewhere, and Ben Kinlaw had trailed as well. This has made things interesting. Kinlaw and/or Brown dropping out will not change much, with the exception of swaying Charleston one way or the other. The odd part is that Connelly and Connor were tied to each other during Connor's Lt. Governor run, so they are essentially splitting their own vote. If either drops out, then the race is over - the other wins. But, that appears slim...
The Number Three candidate generally has the power in these types of races, and that appears to be Brown. He might make a deal to pull his supporters either way - if he can - in exchange for some type of concessions. if I were Brown, that's what I'd do. Even then,it might not turn the tide. Connor waited so long , and his opening statement was so odd that it made delegates wonder how much thought he did put into this race, and he's paying for the delay. A month or so earlier, and this race would be his. Instead, he's running against his buddy Connelly. It could be messy, and it often is. Eventually, the smoke will clear, and we'll have a leader. Maybe not one with a clear, strong consensus, but a leader nonetheless...
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4 comments:
Ben Kinlaw has dropped out.
See, he took my advice already. Oh... Well, he was running a distant 4th, so he'll have a negligble effect on the race. It could be a one vote majority, but I think someone will have to drop out, or tail off badly.
Mike--I have been to a number of the county conventions and the poll numbers are pretty well split. Stephen Brown won Greenville and Charleston, Chad won Spartanburg and York, Bill won O'burg(all their votes).
My prediction is that there will be two ballots, where no one wins the majority, then on the 3rd someone drops out. If the 3rd place candidate endorses another candidate its overwith. If he doesn't and the delegates are freed to vote for who they want, it could be interesting.
There is another possibility: the SCGOP goes several ballots and no candidate gets 50% and no one drops out. That leaves the potential for a 4th candidate to be nominated from the floor, that would pull votes from the first three candidates.
One thing is for sure, this SCGOP convention will not lack for fireworks; back room deals; and the potential for politics at its finests (or worst).
Sorry you won't be here this year but the rest of the Horsemen will be, and when the Horsemen gather, it is always interesting...teg
If Bill would had got in earlier he would had a chance. This is anybodys race but Chad has the advantage.
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