We can't tell you how many times I wished I was Big too.... But alas, I'm still stuck in Trollville. OK, not troll, but a couple inches taller would be nice. Some of the Republican candidates have a much better chance of winning next year - while others have the same chance as me being 6'2".... Doesn't stop us from trying, does it? So, to give our two cents foresight into the early primary and caucuses, we have looked into our crystal ball, and we're posting ths to see if we can still prejudge voters decisions...
Honestly, we're seeing this as a 3-4 candidate race early on. Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, and to a lesser extent, Ron Paul are first tier candidates with shots at winning any of the races in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. By then, we will have a pretty good idea of which 1-2 have real shots at the nomination. The rest of the field has no shot, and barring a major new entry, we see no reason to see it changing. So, here we go!
Iowa:
Honestly, we see a little bit of a backlash from Perry here for not taking part in any debates or the Straw Poll - and especially for taking the heta awya from it by announcing the same day. He'll do well, but Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul are well organized there. No, we see no clear winner here, but we'll give the slight edge to Bachmann for bordering Iowa, and having being the only female in the race. Yeah, it goes that way sometimes... Bachmann 25%, Perry and Paul 23%, Romney 12%....
New Hampshire:
Well gee, this is Mitt Romney's backyard.... You think he'll pull it off? Of course, but the big question is will it be it the big win he needs? We don't think so... Romney's campaign lacks the fire needed to win it all, and New Hampshire will be the writing on the wall. Perry again will fare decently here as well, but Bachmann and Paul will fare worse in this least Republican of Republican states the good news is half the field will be cleared out by then... Romney 34%, Perry 28% , Bachmann 16%, Paul 13%.....
South Carolina:
Ahh.... What all of you have been waiting for! The State that Picks Winners. Why is SC the place that picks 'em? Well, we're pretty astute first of all. Secondly, we rarely have a candidate from here - or anywhere near here for that matter. So, we are the most objective. Lastly, all the candidates load up on Iowa and New Hampshire. South Carolina is where the real cmapaign begins, and by then, the imposters are gone. So, the question is who has the legs to make it this far, and the juice to rile up supporters without spending a mint to do it? I really think only one fits both.... Romney has the money, but he is a bad fit for SC, and if he is hoping to catch fire on Super Tuesday, he better think again.... ask Rudy Giuliani.
Bachmann and Paul? Good groundforce for sure on both parts, but campaigns need a certain amount of cash to win. That and both have chinks in their political armor... I listened to Bachmann in Spartanburg for 15 minutes, and it was the cliched Conservative BS (Abortion, Gay Marriage, etc) that the moderate voters who actually win elections tired of 6 years ago. BTW, please give me a plan to improve the economy, not saying "I'll fire Barack Obama". Weak, sister - very weak. Paul has all the juice to finish third everywhere, but horses that show every race never get the trophy. Good ideas on some things, and a nice idealist, but his foreign policy and personal freedoms scre the bejeezus out of a lot of voters...
Yeah, we're gonna pick Perry to finally win in the Palmetto State, and to have a nice run from there. Will he take the nomination? We're not 100% on that yet. God knows the reaction by the GOP to succeed Obama with ANOTHER Governor from Texas might go over as well as the Democrats almost nominating Hillary in 2008. But, he has caused the groundswell in the party to finish first of second just about everywhere, and to take over from there. Perry 40%, Bachmann 27%, Paul 19%, Romney 9%....
Maybe the Palmetto State Blessing comes true again in 2012 - or maybe it finally misses the mark. We'll see in the Spring. As for us, we think our compass is dead on - again. Romney will stay in until Super Tuesday, as will Ron Paul, but it wouldn't surprise us to see both drop soon afterwards. We have a feeling Bachmann is going to ride the string for as long as she can, and build her power base. Is Rick Perry our dream candidate? No, but at least he has some kind of leadership resume, and has some traction going... Zoltar says Rick's wish is granted...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjIxic9cBXU&feature=related
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3 comments:
Unquestionably believe that which you stated. Your favorite justification seemed to be on the net the easiest thing to be aware of. I say to you, I definitely get annoyed while people think about worries that they plainly don't know about. You managed to hit the nail upon the top and also defined out the whole thing without having side effect , people could take a signal. Will probably be back to get more. Thanks
Mike-Cain,Santorium,Huntsman and Newt will all be gone by the time we close out the first Super Tuesday (if not sooner). Whoever of the top tier is 4th may hold on a little longer but unless they get a sudden surge they won't make it past the end of March 2012.
I have a feeling that given the geographic placement of Super Tuesday, that if Perry comes out of this with a tremendous lead in delegates and wins in crucial states, Romney, Bachmann drop out then. Ron Paul will hang around but he will be hard pressed to be more than a also ran.
Now, this is a big IF, but if that happens, then the real 2012 race starts in April/May 2012 timeframe and there is a danger in that. What danger you ask? Think two billionaires with more money than most of us could ever dream of---Trump and Bloomberg.
If one of these two gets in it hurts the GOP; if both get in (and there is a possibility given their egos and their wallets); then 2012 could be an 1860/1948 Presidential election moment.
But this far out trying to read these political tealeaves has made me realize one thing--I am going to need a new pair of glasses!!....teg
Anon, I'm sorry, but that's all I have to give. Come back next year!
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