Nate Silver Is Seeing Red........

The Wizard of the 2012 Election Is Seeing a Republican Senate ....... And That
Just May Be Good For Barack Obama and America.

        Like we have said, and will continue to say over and over, our job here is to cut through the bullshit, and give you the straight dope.   It drives us crazy when politicians will use info from somewhere because it agrees with their needs, but ignore other info when it disagrees with them.  It's called Cherrypicking - and we can't stand it.  So, we will try to introduce you to a couple people that apparently see things with a clear eye. 


       First off, we bring you Nate Silver. Honestly, we never heard of Nate, until his 538 website just about correctly called the 2012 Presidential Election.  We kind of thought he was possibly a partisan hack, but apparently, he's just using data.  When everyone thought that Mitt Romney was going to give Barack Obama a run for his money two years ago, Silver said all the swing states would go Obama's way - and he was right.  Well, now Silver is focusing on the numbers from the states with Senate seats up for grabs - and he says the odds of the GOP taking control is about 64%.   Not a mathematical certainty, but that's pretty good.  Of course, one mistake or two by a GOP candidate, and it all could change.....


    During the discussion of it on This Week, we learned one thing, and thought of another.  First, we saw how the staleness of the Democrat's ticket emotes an sense of entitlement, similar to the House of Lords.  Of the seats up for grabs, four of them are Democratic political legacies - Mary Landrieu, Mark Pryor, Mark Begich and Michelle Nunn.  Honestly, we hate when the seemingly only possible choice for an outgoing Senator or Congressman is his spouse or child...........  Of course, South Carolina is no stranger to this.  We have our Campbells, Ravenels - and someday in the 6th District, the Clyburns. 


   Now, with the real possibility of Barack Obama having to deal with a Republican majority in both houses, you'd think he'd be bummed out for the last two years of his term, before heading off to the golf course.  We disagree.  In fact, if Obama plays his cards right, backs off the political rhetoric, and is the adult in the room, this could be a great opportunity for America - oh, and his legacy. 


    What are we talking about?  THE DEAL.  The Big Deal.  Or even a small deal or two.  Lets face it - DC has been a wasteland for bipartisanship since 2000.  It's no coincidence that the last good bipartisan agreement from DC was the Welfare Reforms in 1995.  Go back in your memory, and remember the setup:  Democrat President, Republican House and Senate.  It's almost the best scenario for decent compromise and change, without going overboard, like when it's a clean sweep.


   Here's why it works.....     The problem right now is you have jerkoffs like Harry Reid and John Boehner running the majorities, from opposite sides.  Nothing they pass is anything close to what the other side is passing.  That doesn't allow for the all-important reconciliation that finalizes change to occur.  Now if you're a Republican, you're thinking you can pass anything you want........  Wrong.  Why? One word:  VETO.  Obama can veto any bill, and it would have to be overridden - a near impossibility. But, the veto is his only option, and Americans - even disinterested ones - don't want to the President act like a veto machine.  No one likes a One-Man Obstruction Crew.......


     There is only one answer - a deal.  Any kind of deal, on a full array of issues.   The one good thing is that we may finally have a clearing up of the confusion on Capitol Hill that were put in place by the voters.  See, it IS your fault.......... It is out best hope right now.  Capitol Hill is where all the problems start.........but it's also when the solutions come from legislatively.  It has to be.


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Cartoon of the Week......

       It's Sunday again, and that means it's time for cartoons!   We need to look harder here, because Real Clear Politics isn't exactly giving us a lot to choose from..... This was the best we could find.  The way things are going. we might need to limit the Presidency to on term, because the second term malaises being suffered by the last few occupants of the White House have us wondering.   Barack Obama definitely seems to be cashing it in lately.  If the Senate goes Republican, he might just give up................... or would it?


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I'm Calling my Ex-Wife, and Thanking Her As Soon As I Finish This Post....

The Mark and Jenny Sanford Show Gets Ugly in Public Again.....

     Honestly, I hate posting on this stuff.   I liked the Sanford's a lot.  When I was running for office, Jenny Sanford was one of my bigger fans amongst the SCGOP Elite.  Mark Sanford had a lot of good ideas when he was Governor, although his inability to work with his detractors killed any success he could have had....  But, this is SC6 - and when something in SC happens, we try to cover something about it - unwillingly or not.


     The Sanford's and I do have one thing in common - we've both gone through a divorce.  The difference is mine was a zero sum divorce, meaning there were little to no assets and kids to fight over.  The irony was I was 32, and my wife was 26, but we handled our divorce with the maturity that neither of us had during  it.  In fact, I took her to lunch after the hearing, which left Judge Patsy shaking her head in disbelief......  And in the 13 years since, it has continued. No, I rarely see her, but we have mutual friends, so we hear about each other.  I've always joked that we had the most amicable divorce in history. You'd think that a couple that has more cash that 99% of the rest of us would move on, and live out their lives in happiness could figure it out as well, but........


     Reading an article in The Hill, it appears that the Battling Sanfords of Sullivan's Island are still counting points.  According to the article, Jenny filed a complaint in court that asks for Mark to have limited visits with their youngest son, who is now 16 years old. In addition, she seeks to "prevent both parents from exposing the teenager to any “overnight” guests of the opposite sex, not related to the parents, “who could reasonably be construed as a paramour," and from bad-mouthing the other parent or the family in the teen’s presence, the TV station reported.
Jenny Sanford’s complaint also asks for a civil restraining order barring her ex-husband from entering or trying to enter her home "without explicit prior written approval.”


    Reading between the lines, Mrs. Sanford thinks Mr. Sanford's fiancée  is a slut, who is downing her in front of the son.  Poor taste, yes. But, is this really something to drag into court?  We have no idea if this is what Jenny was told by the son, or if she is getting that impression, and she's acting upon it.  Either way, this will get ugly - and public - fast.  The son is 16, so he undoubtedly will be dragged into court to testify. If he is getting sick of seeing his Dad with his Argentinian girlfriend, he needs to spout up, and explain that Dad's pissing him off....... He's old enough to give an opinion on this. 

   No matter what the reason, the Sanfords need to grow up a bit. Mark needs to remember that it's NOT his house anymore.  If you're coming, you gotta call first.  And Jenny has to find a way to sit Mark down and have a mature discussion on things, without involving her attorney.  You know.........like regular people do.  I'll end it here - I have a phone call to make.....


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The Flaw That Will Lead to ISIS' Downfall.........

Don't Expect to Keep That Flag Planted for Long, Buddy.......

    OK, time to look into out crystal ball, and try to predict the future - for it is only by being able to say, 'See, I told you so.' that people start believing you.  So, here we go......  Without a doubt, ISIS is the biggest current threat to Iraq and Syria. Bigger than Al-Qaeda, without a doubt.  Why?  By it's sheer violence alone.  Al-Qaeda was pretty bad, but with the loss of Osama bin Laden, and the withdrawal of US troops, they aren't as bad as they used to be.   ISIS however, has taken the ball and run, killing any possible person who disagrees with them.  Even Al-Qaeda couldn't hold them back. Now what about the threat to the West?  That remains to be seen, and it depends on what we do in the coming months....


     That's all in the future, but we're focusing on now for today. We can argue for days on the best way to control and end ISIS.  Barack Obama and the folks at the Pentagon will come up with a game plan eventually.  We're all hoping the first step wasn't bombing Al-Shabaab, because they missed ISIS by 1000 miles or so....... No, we will be focusing on if they will end, and how.   We here don't think IF is a big question.  ISIS will be pretty much crushed..  But we have a specific reason on WHY ISIS will almost disappear, and Al-Qaeda will be the leading terrorist threat.


    What is it?  Well, ISIS is pretty similar to Al-Qaeda in many ways:  they are both violent, fundamentalist terror groups that are angry with western influence in the Middle East.  But, there is one difference in ISIS that will be there downfall - The Caliphate.


     Al-Qaeda's has mainly been a terrorist group that basically wants to create havoc in an area, while laying low in whatever area they inhabit.  They are mobile, they are hard to pinpoint, and they don't try to incorporate whatever area they are in.  ISIS' goal is to create an Islamic State - and it will ruin them.  Every nation has a limit of just how much territory they can control.  It's like a bubble - at some point, a nation gets overextended, and it's bubble will burst.   Think about Germany in WWII... Hitler's dream of world domination ended when he invaded Britain and Russia - and eventually the United States entered.  They couldn't protect all that territory, even when they overmatched their opponents.  ISIS is at a decided disadvantage.... Look at what's happened the past few weeks:  They got stopped in any and every place we've hit them. Hell, even the Iraqi Army is starting to slow them down....

      The United States military had trouble keeping Iraq safe with 140,000 soldiers with the best equipment available.  What are the odds of a few thousand relatively low-financed terrorists - mostly made up of western suckers who don't have the skills that Al-Qaeda has - keeping control of Iraq and Syria?  Very,very low.......  Steps 2,3,4 and 5 will take little time to decide.  Personally, we think the best move later is to get rid of the most dangerous of Bashar Assad's enemies - then turn it on him to force a resignation from him.  But, the first step is to continue the assault on ISIS from the air, and pound them into a corner.  They can't control all that territory.  Yes, we will lose a few hostages in a very public fashion.  But during all of that, we will save thousands of lives.  No one wants ISIS there.  Every leader in the Middle East will thank us, then turn a blind eye.  But, stopping ISIS in it's tracks now will be easy. Maintaining a Caliphate takes a lot of manpower and work - and they seem incapable of doing it.  It's not a compliment, but Al-Qaeda was smarter.......

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History Quiz Time: What Day is Today?

Yeah, It's Monday. It's Labor Day.  But ..........

     Happy Labor Day, everyone!  We hope you are enjoying the holiday by not working - or doing anything, for that matter.  We're watching Nat Geo Channel's 80's and 90's retrospective shows....   Yeah, it's a day to let the batteries recharge.  We had a good post to write, but we'll let it wait til tomorrow.

     Not everyday is a day for politics - even for us.  But, we couldn't help but remember that today was September 1st.  It's one of the most important dates in history, although many Americans don't know it.  We recognize another date, because we tend to be a little self-important.  Still guessing?  OK, we'll make it easier. It's the 75th anniversary..........


    Yes, on September 1st 1939, the Nazi's invaded Poland, which started World War II - the most important event of the 20th Century.  While most Americans know December 7th, September 1st is not as well-known. But we're history buffs, because knowing the past helps aid future decisions, which we will show tomorrow.  Anyway, thanks for reading, and we hope we didn't make youthink too much!

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