The Odds Board Is Up in Vegas ....... Who's Leading the Pack ?Yes folks, there's less than two months left until the Republican Primary... The camps are now getting into high gear - although some appear to be stuck in first gear, or still looking for the keys. That's not our problem. Today, our job is to give the odds of a candidate's chance at victory in June.
We'd like to thank the Hilton Vegas Hotel for letting us use their odds board for the next 60 days, although we still think we should get comped for our poker chips at the Blackjack table. Anywho, our equation for each candidate's odds is very simple: we took the percentage of votes we think he/she will get, and divided 100 by that number. Hence, a candidate who gets 10% has odds of 10-1, 25% is a 4-1, and so on. Of course, a candidate who is only pulling 10% of the vote has far worse than a 10-1 chance of winning, but let's keep it simple.
We'll be honest, a few races are not our forte. In the 3rd and 4th Congressional district races, we haven't paid much attention. No one Upstate gives a rat's ass about the Pee Dee, so why should we care about them, right? If you think my analysis of those races are off, you're probably right, so don't bother complaining about it.... Anyway, onto the odds:
Governor
Henry McMaster 2-1
Andre Bauer 3-1
Gresham Barrett 3-1
Nikki Haley 5-1
McMaster's base is pretty solid, but can he get to 50% in the runoff. Bauer and Barrett are neck and neck in the race for the runoff. Haley seems to have lost a little traction since the first debate, and she's developed a reputation for canceling local events.
Lt. Governor
Bill Connor 2-1
Ken Ard 2-1
Larry Richter 6-1
Krista Cogdill 10-1
Eleanor Kitzman 20-1
There still is no clear leader between Connor and Ard. Connor has the right-wing and Tea Party votes, Ard the more center and establishment votes. Cogdill started late, and has reports of a stalker right off the bat, which is more than Kitzman has had. Wisely, she has dropped out as we wrote this post. Richter will be somewhat of a force, although he has more baggage than a Louis Vuitton outlet store.
Treasurer
Converse Chellis 2-5
Curtis Loftis 5-2
Loftis had some major missteps right off the bat in front of party faithful, and hasn't had any traction since. Chellis seems pretty secure for another term.
Attorney General
Leighton Lord 3-2
Alan Wilson 3-2
Robert Bolchoz 5-1
This one appears to be heading for a runoff, with Lord and Wilson ready to do battle. Wilson has the party faithful, while Lord has raised money pretty well, and has good private connections. Should be interesting. Bolchoz is in a bad spot, and looks to be the odd man out right now.
Comptroller General
Richard Eckstrom 2-5
Mike Meilinger 5-2
Creepy e-mails aside, Eck has done an excellent job, and will roll to the win. He'll lose some points for his boo-boo, and his closeness to Mark Sanford, but he'll survive.
Superintendent of Education
Mick Zais even odds
Brent Nelsen 5-1
Kelly Payne 7-1
Gary Burgess 17-1
Elizabeth Moffly 17-1
Glenn Price 25-1
For such a crowded field, Zais has a shot at winning without a runoff. Nelsen is the only candidate who has actually improved his reputation since announcing, but Zais has the support of the SCGOP. We had high hopes for Payne, but the Eck e-mail scandal probably hurt her more than it did Eckstrom. Moffly is the only returning candidate, but she disappeared for four years, instead of building a base. Burgess has baggage, and Price is a non-factor.
US Senate
Jim DeMint 1-20
Susan Gaddy 20-1
We hope Gaddy doesn't miss the $10,000 she just dropped to get her name on the ballot for a shot at running against probably the most popular Republican in SC right now, because she would have better spent it at Vegas or Powerball.... And making your Senator waste money on an unnecessary race does not make you popular with the party faithful...DeMint rolls easily.
US House - 1st District
Paul Thurmond 4-1
Tim Scott 9-2
Tumpy Campbell 6-1
Katherine Jenerette 8-1
Mark Lutz 15-1
Clark Parker 30-1
Ken Glasson 30-1
Stovall Witte 30-1
Larry Kabrovsky 30-1
Just get in the top two, then worry about the runoff is the mantra here. This clusterf**k of a race to replace Henry Brown seems to be clearing up a bit between Thurmond and Scott. The key is to get the votes of the rest of them. Campbell has not shown that he is is father's son during the race, like Thurmond has. Jenerette has her work cut out, but it wouldn't surprise us to see her beat Campbell, being the most well-known Grand Strand candidate, and the only woman - but she may have to settle for Miss Congeniality.
US House - 2nd District
Joe Wilson 1-5
Phil Black 5-1
Joe Black might be a better name, because he is dead meat in this race. There are some Republicans who will give a no to Joe for 'You Lie', but Wilson rolls onto a rematch with that other guy who I can never remember. Seriously, it's not coming to me - again!
US House - 3rd District
Jeff Duncan 3-1
Rex Rice 3-1
Mike Vasovski 7-1
Richard Cash 20-1
Joe Grimaud 20-1
Neal Collins 20-1
This one is headed for a Duncan-Rice showdown in the runoff to replace Barrett. Mike Vasovski should place third due to his announcing early, but South Carolinians don't like Yankee names they have trouble pronouncing - trust me, I know. Cash, Collins and Grimaud (sounds like a Law Firm) are also-rans from what I can tell.
US House - 4th District
Bob Inglis 3-1
Trey Gowdy 7-2
David Thomas 7-1
Christina Jeffrey 7-1
Jim Lee 9-1
Will Bob Inglis hold onto his seat? We think he'll at least get to the runoff, but in the Upstate, who knows? Thomas has suprisingly not gotten on track, especially with fundraising. Jeffrey will pull a solid share from the Tea Party, but doesn't make the final two. Inglis' pitch for Lee was probably the Kiss of Death. Should be the tightest and craziest race of them all.....
US House - 6th District
Nancy Harrelson 3-2
Colleen Payne 3-1
Jim Pratt 3-1
In an wide open race just looking for a front runner, no one has seemed to grab the bull by the huevos yet. That would benefit Harrelson, which is why she gets the slight edge today. Guys, you have less than 60 days to cover 15 counties - Get To It !!!! Pratt has intimated that he's got the money, but he needs to win June 8th first, and he needs more than the Tea Party supporters to get him there. The truth is, most voters will not recognize any of them on the ballot, unless one of them takes that extraordinary step. You don't win by accident....
We'll update these odds every once in a while, and see how we did in June. Congrats to Mick Mulvaney, Mark Hammond, Hugh Weathers and Bob Livingston for getting a free ride to November....
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31 comments:
Why, Mrs. Kitzman...whatever do you mean? Perhaps politics is not your game.
Man...that was quick.
Haley has canceled on me three times.
After reading your comment P-Luv, I realized that my post was a bit misleading. Kitzman is still in the race, Krista Cogdill is the one who dropped out.
Moye, I didn't want to name you specifically on that, but it is what it is....
I think your picks are very "establishment" and behind the times.
In the Treasurer's race you are way off. Loftis has made a name for himself as a reformer, and Chellis has made a name for himself as an establishment politician and this is not theyear to be seen that way.
My home county executive committe is 100% with Loftis, and 3 weeks ago we were 100% with Chellis. This race is the one to watch in SC
I'll concede that they seem a bit 'establishment', but for a good reason. This is not who I want to win, these are odds of winning. Beating incumbents, especially in a Primary, is not easy, especially when Chellis has been one of the few to not pulbicly embarrass himself.
I do find it interesting that your EC pulled a 180 in just a couple of weeks. Locally, that happens all the time, although I'm not sure why, aside from taking the word of the challenger. Statewide, it's a much harder trend, and honestly, many EC and Chairs that were in Cola that day said Loftis wasn't able to define why he was even running, except that Chellis was chosen by the House.
I thought he defined himself well. He is the outsider with a fact based case against the insider. That is working well for him, I think.
I did not know that Krista dropped out.
Jim DeMint will win the U S Senate nomination is my prediction.
That isn't exactly reaching out on a limb, Moye!
According to FITS, Krista is out.
Curtis Loftis will never win this race. If you look at the Converse Chellis endorsements from the County Chairman and Executive Committeemen the list is long. I heard Curtis Loftis speak at the last EC meeting in Columbia and was not impressed. In fact several times this week he and I have gone back and forth about his campaign. I am sure I will hear from him over this post and no Curtis I am not trying to ruin your campaign as you say I am. You are doing that yourself. Sorry for not putting my name Mike but Mr. Loftis will put it together and I am alright with that. In fact he or his people probably wrote the last comment.
Occasionally, I get a race wrong here and there, although I don't think this is one of them. Some in the party don't like my honesty, but I don't pour the Kool-Aid for anyone. According to the Post & Courier, Tumpy is doing better than I give him credit for, but we'll see.
BTW, I finally remembered - it's Rob Miller!
Most chairmen endorsed Chellis long before Loftis entered the race. The endorsements mean little or nothing now that there is competition. I think it is a horserace.
Endorsements from the establishment have never meant much. This year they ,mean even less.
In any event, it will be interesting.
I pick Converse Chellis in the Treasurer race.
I will agree with the endorsements. Only once did I give one, and it wasn't in SC. Personally, I would wait until the gates are closed, then endorse, because you never know who will enter at the last minute, like in Chellis' predecessor.
Overall, pretty good picks, I think.
Hey Mike Earl is giving 16 points in the Sixth. I may raise that to 20.
I predict Richard Eckstrom to win his primary.
If you think Loftis is any competition for Chellis you dont know nothing about politics. Loftis is such a negative person most people want to throw up after listening to him if they dont do it while they are listening to him.
I pick Nikki Haley to finish last in the Primary.
Moye, considering we are working off of a 34 point loss last time, neither of you will find any takers.. Kinda like a basketball team getting whipped by Duke by 50 points, but swearing they'll win this time because they had a good practice...
Mike, you live up to your reputation as the Bad Boy Blogger of South Carolina politics, but I mean it in a nice way. But Miss Congeniality? That reminds me of high school or my Mrs. South Carolina pageant of over a decade ago. Shoot! I’ve threatened to whistle Dixie to Nancy Pelosi in a Capital elevator, I jump out of C-17s in Airborne operations at Ft. Bragg, and I’ve challenged every candidate to a 10-kilometer run that I would love to run along the proposed I-73 route through Horry County. Darn it! Miss Congeniality? I’d rather be a Congressman. Love ya Mike! Keep up the good work.
Thanks Katherine, and best of luck to you too. I feel bad when some people can't seem to make up their minds as far as what they want, and they hurt those who did know in the process...
Just curious, but why do you say that Zais has the backing of the SCGOP in the Supt. race?
Well Zais' campaign manager happens to currently work in the SCGOP for one thing. He was made the parliamentarian by Floyd AFTER he was already the campaign manager. Todd Kincannon , also from the SCGOP (or is he gone already, I can't keep up with that group), recently called Kelly Payne a Democrat.
The SCGOP supports McMaster, Ard, Zais, they hand-picked Livingston and Chellis. Comptroller and AG are harder to tell. Although I assume they are against Eckstrom. I think they also want Leighton Lord but I'm not certain.
Thanks Anon, that explains it better than I knew.. From my end, I had just always heard mumurs that Zais was the one the SCGOP was hoping would win.
I can share how things smell here in the 4th CD. Most people are thinking it will be a Inglis-Gowdy runoff, but a lot of the dynamics of this race are still up in the air. For one, just how strong is the tea party/grassroots conservative folks in a district that is Republican anyway? Those folks are splitting their votes between Jeffrey and Lee. Here in Spartanburg County, Gowdy's support is strong among just your run-of-the-mill voters who aren't activists but just show up to vote. Apparently Gowdy and Jeffrey and Lee are combined catching more steam in Greenville County than Thomas is...not sure how much Thomas' appeal extends beyond Fountain Inn and that small tip of Laurens in the district.
Gotcha - I was just wondering who was being referred to as the SCGOP - the party staff in Columbia, or local, and state elected officials or what.
So you mean the party staff in Columbia is backing Zais?
Glenn Price will lose the Supt. of Ed. race.
Loftis or should I say Mr. No Show has done it again this time leaving Chairman Ben Kinlaw drawing a blank over in Bamberg. The guy is a joke.
yes, Anon. I always refer to Columbia as the SCGOP. Even though the local groups are part of the SCGOP, I'll always refer to them as locals..
Thanks Jim, I appreciate the input, and I'm surprised I was as correct as you say I am. I know as much about the 4th in SC as I do the 4th in Iowa...Well, maybe a bit more...
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