Who'll Win In Iowa... SC6 Predicts.

One day 'til Iowa....... We are at long last going to start picking a President. Iowa is a very strange fish compared to all the other states. It's not a primary, where everyone privately goes in booth and pulls a lever. Each person stands in the room and publicly chooses their candidate. They are pushed and goaded into choosing a candidate. If an important person at the caucus votes a certain way, he/she may pull other votes with them. It is clearly a vote where the strength of the organization is the most important thing......

Republicans:

It's clearly a two horse race between Romney and Mike Huckabee. Huckabee had a small lead, but it's been dwindling since he got on top a month ago, and Huckabee has not been very steady in the last week. The 'not airing' of the attack ad was a big mistake. But, like i said, the most important thing is the organization, and Romney has it all over Huckabee in Iowa. Romney will bus everyone in Iowa if he has to, and he just may. McCain, Thompson, Giuliani, Paul and the rest will be far away. Romney 33%, Huckabee 27%, McCain 15%.

Democrats:

I hate to say it, but this is the most interesting of the two races tomorrow. A tight three-way race between groups that are pretty well organized, two of which are flush with cash. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama appear to have the popular vote, but John Edwards has been moving up, and he gets free ads from every Union in Iowa - a state where unions still have some pull. I just have a gut feeling that the Obama crowds are more motivated and excited, and somehow, they will pull the minor upset in Iowa. it won't be by much, but first is first, and then they'll move onto New Hampshire. After that, Kucinich, Biden, Dodd and Richardson will all quit, with Edwards leaving the race after he loses South Carolina. Obama 30%, Clinton 29%, Edwards 25%.

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