The Audacity of Audacity: A Warning to Those 'Safe Incumbents' Out There..

From County Executive to Recycling Ambassador ? Maybe If He Spent a Little of That $2.1M He Raised, He'd Still Be in Office ...

Like we gave in our post election wrapup, this was a bad year for the incumbents of both parties, and we see no reason for a change in 2010. New York City Mayor Michaal Bloomberg spent $102 million of his own dollars to win re-election. That is sick, and I'm sure there is a point of oversaturation where voters get ticked off from the media assault. But, you do need to keep your name out there to a certain point, and more importantly, your Election Day team better be ready to rock. Here is our prime example of thinking you have it made....

Say hello to Tom Suozzi (pronounced SWO-zee, for those of you who are Italian Impaired). The prince of the Nassau County Democrats, Suozzi's Dad and Uncle were both big shots in the party. A two-term incumbent, Suozzi even ran for Governor three years ago, but lost to Eliot Spitzer - he of the hotel with the prostitute scandal. Despite the loss, Suozzi seemed to be still on the rise, and possibly eyeing another run for Governor next year. If this is all sounding a bit like former Florence Mayor Frank Willis to you, congrats - you now see the SC-NY similarity here.

Well, Suozzi didn't pay much attention to the air of anger among voters, preferring to smell his air of invincibility instead. When polls showed it was a tight race, Suozzi ignored the signs to spend some of the $2.1 Million he had in cash on hand (yes, it takes $2 million to win a county election) , and bolster his Get Out the Vote efforts - and after the official handcount of the ballot was done, he lost by 377 votes...... That's about $60,000 a vote. I'm sure he could have done it for much cheaper than that, but when you blame voters for not getting out to vote, and you have $2.1 million in the bank to drive all of Hempstead to the polls....... I feel no pity for you.

Like Willis' 'unexpected' loss to Stephen Wukela, Suozzi lost to Republican Ed Mangano , who spent about 1/4 what he did. Therein lies our sage advice: if you are an incumbent, don't sit pat, and expect things to be like in previous elections. I've seen people involved in politics that I didn't see in five years in the biz before. They're pissed, they're motivated, and they're coming for you. Henry Brown, Joe Wilson, and John Spratt should know this. Bob Inglis has known this for a while now, even from his own side. Jim Clyburn doesn't, but even he will probably see that 40% line be broken next year, even in his gerrymandered district.

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