OK, we're marking the Illinois Primary at the last minute here, but we figured we better. After last week's blowing the Mississippi and Alabama polls, we felt the need to redeem ourselves.... The funny part is while Wayne and Garth very likely will not be voting, their are a major part of key demographics for some of the candidates...
This one should be pretty easy to call. We'll help you out a bit. Take a picture of Illinois, and draw a line across it about 1/3 of the way down, going east and west. Above the line is Romney's, below it is Santorum's. Sounds good for Rick, right? Nope. You see 70% of voters live North of that line, including Wayne and Garth in Aurora... It'll look on a map like Santorum dominated the state, but it's all in the rural South.
Romney will edge out Santorum statewide, and for all the usual reasons: Illinois is more moderate, and they see Mitt Romney as having the best chance of winning the nomination. Worse for Santorum, he didn't register in 5 congressional districts, so he is starting out with a 10 delegate disadvantage. So, even though he likely won't get 50% of the vote, Romney will take more than half of the delegates..
If Rick Santorum wants a piece of good news, it's that Newt Gingrich may not pull a single delegate from him here. We see no demographic for Gingrich here, and the calls might come back up for him to quit - but Newt's not leaving til after Texas.. In fact, we're more concerned that Ron Paul may actually beat him here. There's lots of colleges here, and they're still brainwashed that he'll pull a miracle, like ten more delegates nationally...
Romney 40%, Santorum 35%, Gingrich 14%, Paul 11%..
.
No comments:
Post a Comment