So, another Super Tuesday has come and gone. It's time to clean up all the debris on your floor from the big party you had last night, and get back to your regular life.. What, are we the only ones who have a Super Tuesday party? Whatever...
Anyway, we showed that we are getting better at reading the Tea Leaves in this race. It's not all that tough.. Yeah, Ohio was tight, but the polls trended that way. Tennessee was easier for Rick Santorum than we thought, but the rest were pretty simple. If you look at it, there is a clear geographic trend taking shape - we just saw it a day earlier than most people. Virginia was a breeze, but Romney has a clear Western trend going on, while Santorum has the Great Plains and Upper Midwest locked up. Romney is taking the Midwest (barely) and East. All that is up for grabs now is the Deep South...
That is where another trend will likely repeat itself: like an old car with trash clogged in the fuel injectors, Mitt Romney sputters every time he seems to get some momentum. Yeah, Super Tuesday was set up pretty well for him, but this week is going to look like another example of Mitt not closing the deal, and it's to be expected. The way the field is set, there will be no closer...
A look the upcoming states is all you need to see.. First up this weekend is Kansas, which will very likely go Santorum's way. Midwest, Very Religious Conservative - as the Waco Kid in Blazing Saddles would say, "People of the Land. The Common Clave... You Know - Morons". Just kidding.. It's right up Rick's alley, and we expect him to win. Now, onto the only question mark left...
Yesterday, we joked that Newt Gingrich's strategy was to win all the states between North Carolina and Florida, which he's done to perfection. We still think he is draining wins away from Santorum at this point, and that he should drop out, especially his poor showings in Tennessee and Oklahoma. He didn't sound like a guy about to quit last night. In fact, he sounded more like, as Stephen Hayes put it, 'Uncle Rico from Napoleon Dynamite, tossing his football around, reminiscing about the glory days.' Then we looked at the map...
We're pretty sure that Santorum would like to give Gingrich a swift roundhouse kick in the family jewels for costing him Ohio and Michigan, but Newt has one small chance for at least getting some time in Tampa. He won Georgia and South Carolina. Up next are Alabama and Mississippi. If he takes those, he has a clear regional trend, and the goal will be to clear a swath all the way to Texas in late May. It's a thread of a hope. His campaign strategist laid it out last night. It depends on essentially winning 8 winner take all states, Texas and non-committed delegates, which would JUST give him 1144.
It's almost pathetic in how they're trying to view this. First off, he's running for the GOP Nomination, not the Dixiecrat Party. Secondly, he cannot win all the delegates in Texas and the non-committeds.. Third, if he loses any of the states, it is all over. PLUCK! That thread is broken. Notice he said he'll be in those three states, but none others. Unless Sheldon Adelson is willing to bankroll him further, Newt's days are in the single digits. We'll give him the extra week, but if Santorum wins either Old Miss or 'Bama, Newt needs to get out of the race. If not, Rick Santorum has our permission to actually kick him in the balls...
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