Yes, our 7th Grade English teacher, Mrs. Bisig, would be proud.... We're about 5 hrs away from ending our long trip to Yankeeville, and heading back to South Carolina, so we'll be quick. Yep, Rick Santorum pulled off what we thought would happen on Super Tuesday, but the polls played a trick or two on us, and we got both Mississippi and Alabama wrong. We are not infallible after all...
Now, for the truth about what is going on, and not according to Book According to Newt. We had another mixed bag of info last night.. No, Mitt Romney is far from a clear cut national leader for the nomination, but The South does not run this election. Each region is having a different outcome, and Newt just hit as good a week as he is going to have. Finishing second in two states about 30 miles from your home is not a mandate that you need to run, much less that you're a leading contender. Still, Gingrich appears to be continuing on, and if his sole goal is to NOT let Mitt Romney win, he may have a point here...
OK, here's what Newt's doing. Yes, if he dropped out, most of his votes would go Rick Santorum - but not all of them. At this point, even he knows that neither he or Santorum will likely get to 1144, so all he can do is prevent Mitt Romney from getting to 1144. Yeah, he's going to cost Santorum about 200 delegates to the convention, but he also cost Romney maybe 50 from his count as well - and that's what his goal is.
The real question is how many delegates can Newt get? We're not so sure he'll be much of a factor. You probably didn't notice, but there were caucuses in Hawaii and American Samoa - yes, brown people get to vote in primaries too. Romney took both. Newt was dead last in Hawaii. At the end of the day, Romney collected 41, Santorum 35, and Gingrich 24. Crazy, but they both beat Romney - and he's still six and 17 more delegates ahead than when he started the day. It pays to have a national campaign in place. Newt isn't even close - all he has left are Louisiana and Texas.
Next big state up is Illinois, and it should be interesting... It's smack in the middle of the contested areas that Santorum and Romney have dominated. To the West, Rick's won Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota and Kansas. To the East is Michigan, where Romney won a tight race. Whoever takes Illinois very well may take Indiana and Wisconsin with them in the near future - swing states, people.. As usual, we'll check the polls, and tell you next week... We hoped yesterday would clarify a lot of things, but we fell short of that. Newt is not a real threat to win, but he's not going anywhere. Aside from that, we're going to keep taking these battles one state at a time. It has to end eventually, right? Not until the Fat Guy sings...
.
1 comment:
When you say Santorum, bankrolled is more the deal. Just look at all his lobbyist buddies from his Senate/K Street days.
Post a Comment