Another act or two played out this weekend in Kansas and Wyoming for the Republican nomination - and it's still going to plan, or at least the way it's been playing out. HO-HUM.... Rick Santorum tore through another Midwestern caucus state like an F5 twister (we just can't get off these Wizard of Oz tangents, can we?), and Mitt Romney won another Western state. Snoozers all the way around - like if Green Bay were playing the St. Louis Rams. But, it's always calmest before the storm...
It may sound odd, but this Tuesday will be the most important day in the race since Florida.. Yes, even more important than Super Tuesday, and definitely more important than the South Carolina primary. It happens. Rarely does a race hinge on the performance of a third place candidate, but this time, all eyes are not on Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum, but on Newt Gingrich - and that's just the way he likes it!
Nevermind the coverage of Newt is comparable to a prisoner on Death Row awaiting a last second clemency from the Governor.... Newt loves the microphone, especially when it's free, so he doesn't have to ask Sheldon Adelson to cut a check for it! Don't let the bluster fool you. Newt knows he is dead without taking BOTH Alabama and Mississippi. Yeah, Rick Santorum really could use a Deep South win to claim the religious conservative vote, no matter where it is. If Mitt Romney finally won here, he really could lay claim to the inevitable winner crown. Either could happen, but what happens to Newt Gingrich will really determine the path of this race...
It might sound weird, but Romney is almost wishing Gingrich takes both states. Yeah, a win in either for Romney may wiper out all hope for both Santorum and Gingrich, but as long as Newt's in it, Santorum is losing probably ten points nationally - and a lot of states. It's a short term win versus a long term loss for Romney. It's a tough call, but it's a better spot than the other two are in.
The best news for Romney is he is taking more than 50% of the delegates, so he can still win the nomination before Tampa. He only needs 47% of the remaining delegates, while Santorum needs 62%, and Gingrich 74% - currently 5 TIMES the rate he's getting them in the first 25 states. We'll see how it plays out. We've already said it - if Newt loses either Alabama or Mississippi, it's time to quit. Whether he will or not is up to him, but if his motivation is to beat Mitt Romney, it'll be time to step aside. Stay tuned...
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