It's a bit ironic today in that after nearly two weeks here in Yankeeville, it's finally sunny yet cool enough for us to get to Belmont Park to watch the horses run.. And now, we have enough polling data to at long last put up some numbers for the odds-on favorites to take the initial primary!
Yes, our bookmaker, Lefty (no, he didn't lose a hand in an accident - he's called Lefty for the direction a certain part of his anatomy points. His eye, Pottybrain!) has been culling through all the data, and here's where we are at. Keep in mind, this is for the Primary only... Once the top two are chosen, we start all over again. There are some risers and dippers, but we think we're in the neighborhood.
Andre Bauer 7-2
Tom Rice 5-1
Jay Jordan 7-1
Chad Prosser 8-1
Katherine Jenerette 14-1
Randal Wallace 15-1
Dick Withington 35-1
Jim Mader 50-1
Renee Culler 50-1
Yeah, we have Andre in the lead right now, because he is the only candidate pulling consistently from both ends of the District. New polling data showed what we thought after the FMU-SC Now first poll: that they overpolled the Grand Strand by about 10 percentage points, and that Tom Rice overpolled and Jay Jordan underpolled. Jordan finally showed us the money, and despite the general consensus that his ads were subpar, the old adage that even a poor ad is better than no ad.
Speaking of ads, the field has seemed to settle a bit, and we think that it may end up very close to these numbers. Though he has risen, we think Jordan may peak at these numbers. Chad Prosser seems to already have peaked, or even dropped a point or two, while Tom Rice is leveling at the 20 percent area. So, although Andre will likely take the first round, it doesn't appear to be a landslide, and the battle for second will be close. Given the rabid enthusiasm Florence Baptist Temple and the FCGOP to a lesser degree have for this race, it may be enough to put Jordan at Number Two if the GOTV effort is strong...
The big surprise to us during the whole race is Randal Wallace being stuck in the pack, and gaining little traction. It appears he's logjammed in a field of candidates with similar resumes, and he just doesn't have the financial backing to break out. Katherine Jenerette has a niche with the military background, and being the leading female candidate, which is why we think she'll pass Wallace, but only good enough to finish in the middle of the pack...
In this huge field, Withington, Mader and Culler are afterthoughts, but we'll give Withington the extra point for having enough cash to buy some radio ads. They've given a couple god ideas - and made the race more interesting at times - but they're in a tough field...
Feel free to trash us and say we don't what the hell we're talking about -especially those that are too close to see clearly. That's always fun. But in 2010, we were 700 miles away, didn't meet a candidate, and called almost every race correctly. Damn you, Trey Gowdy!!!! Now, for us, as for the candidates, it's off to the races!
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6 comments:
With this large a field, the only race that really can be predicted is the primary. With so many candidates in the race and so many voters likely supporting candidates who don't make the run-off, the run-off will likely be a mad scramble where voter loyalties will align very differently.
That being said, I think your call is right. The race is shaping up to a Bauer/Rice race with Prosser and Jordan becoming the B group and the others falling way back behind them.
And the chances Dick Withington will pay up on his wager that he'd get less than ten percent are ... ?
Mike, wish Susan and I were in NYC! Great "town". This is a very unusual day. I think you have done a credible job on the handicapping. Not bad at all. Enjoy NY
Mike, it is indeed an unusual day. I think you did a very good handicapping of this race. You are right on the GOTV. The top three or four are within strking distance. It's going to be a photo finish to determine which two will live to run again. Enjoy New York. Time for Susan and I to visit. Love that "town".
Thanks for the compliment, Bill. Horse Racing is in my blood, so handicapping races kinda comes with the territory! I like the quotations around town, because New York is definitely NOT a town.. It's this mass of buildings and houses that never ends, which is why I'm glad I grew up 50 miles out. At least if you fall off your roof here, you don't end up in your neighbor's living room!
Unfortunately, The House doesn't place odds on things that will NEVER happen! Maybe he'll trade that sabre for it instead.....
Andre will win the Primary and I also believe Rice will be number two. Andre will be the first Congressman out of the new Seventh.
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