Runoff 2012: Tom Rice Thumps Andre Bauer in the 7th..

Tom Rice Has Plenty to Smile About After His 12 Point Win Over the Former Lt. Governor, Will Face Tinubu in November Election....


     Like we said, if we were great at predicting races, we'd be working for Rasmussen or Real Clear Politics.... In a race that many thought would be tight, Horry County Council Chairman Tom Rice pulled off a comfy 12 point win over Andre Bauer in tonight's 7th District Runoff.  And the win was pretty convincing districtwide.   We were planning on doing a post from the Florence HQ for Bauer, to put you inside of a campaign team as the numbers came in.  We didn't make it that far, and the Bauer camp went to Myrtle beach anyway....


     Yep, it was a pretty short night... We decided to first stop around the corner to the Florence County Elections Office to see if any results were in.  The poll workers were lined up nicely, escorted by Kenney Boone's finest to make sure  nothing funny happened.  We went inside and we knew the night was almost already over.  Thirteen of the sixty precincts had reported, and Rice was up by 11 points.  When I saw that, I told Renee Woodberry - who was calling in results to Stephanie Rawlinson, that it they won. I also knew it was over when I saw Sunny Philips there. Sunny NEVER loses...Bauer slowly closed the gap, but in the end, Rice won Florence County by 4 points - and Darlington County went with them.  For him to win, Bauer needed to win the Pee Dee by at least 15-20 points. Game Over... 



     In hindsight, it's a lot easier to tell why someone won or lost.  Like most races, it was partly what the winner did, and what the loser did or didn't do... We'll go over some of them here quickly, because right now, it doesn't really matter, does it?


Voters Wanted the Adult in the Room
     This morning, Bill Pickle asked me on his radio show what the differences were between Rice and Bauer.  My answer was temperament. Voters would choose what type of congressman they wanted personalitywise, becuase they two are pretty similar.  I referred to Tom Rice as the adult in the room, meaning he was levelheaded, unemotional - maybe even boring.  I was about to give the good points about Bauer, when one of Andre's supporters called in, and went apeshit, spewing the talking points from Bauer's TV ad.  Then the time for the segment ended.. Rather than letting me make a solid argument for him, he solidified what many worry about Andre - that he lacks maturity.  I disagree with that, but what the voters think is what it is...


Homefield Advantage
     While he eeked out small wins in the Pee Dee, the Grand Strand went for Rice in a pretty big way..  Voters prefer to vote for the candidate they can identify with.  Rice was born, raised and spent his entire career there.  I've been in South Carolina for 15 years,and I'm still and will always be considered a Yankee.. Andre could never convince voters he was a Grand Strander, especially having been in the area for a generally short time.


Bauer's Ads Sucked
     I saw my first positive ad for Bauer - this morning! And the ad wasn't event from his own campaign... Basically, he did the ad blitz backwards.  The ads he ran for the first 13 days were negative and pretty deceptive.  We hate going negative, but if you are going to do it, do it late, so your opponent doesn't have 12 days to counterpunch - especially a generally low-key guy like Rice.  My guess is that they finally got some poll numbers that told them that the negative ads were backfiring, and they tried to make up for it on the last day.  Too late.  Yes, Andre Bauer has nigh negatives, but there are plenty of attributes that he had that made him a better candidate than Rice, but he forgot to show them..


The Political Mona Lisa Vito Syndrome
      Like Marisa Tomei's character in My Cousin Vinny, politicians have biological clocks that tick LIKE THIS, and some insiders that used to support Bauer didn't this time around, because they felt he was running out of the need for an office, not love of an area.  We didn't get that feeling, but again, it's what voters think.  It's tough to overcome that carpetbagger tag in a new district like this, and Andre didn't close the deal.  The big question is if Andre Bauer has run his last campaign?  Maybe.  It's difficult to see that star falling until it's already down, but in hindsight, Andre's cache has been on the decline for two years now.  It happens to most of us.  Besides, the private sector isn't so bad...


    So, the voters have given their decision, and they are going with the levelheaded accountant, rather than the hardcharging political pro... Rice now takes on Gloria Bromell-Tinubu, who thumped Preston 'Mulligan' Brittain by a 3-1 margin.  If we have any advice for Rice, it's to bone up on his debating and delivery skills.  Tinubu has been around the block, so even though Rice has the numbers (28,000 Republicans voted today, as opposed to 13,000 Democrats at last count), he needs to be solid, more confident and polished when the debates come around in the Fall... 


     Congrats to Tom Rice and his team for a good campaign, and now it's time for all of the infighting and stupidity that was all too prevalent in the primary and runoff to end.  Nothing is guaranteed for us yet.  Less than 20 percent voted, and Tinubu will have plenty of street money working for her on Election Day.  With Romney and Obama on the ballot, there should be much higher turnout - at least there better be...


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