Egypt - and the Unites States for that matter - are in a Pig In a Poke situation here. We'll start off bluntly... We don't really have an answer for a smooth resolution here. Short of Hosni Mubarak stepping down, and leaving some sort of strong government behind him, Egypt will be a turbulent mess. In transitioning from a auticracy to real democracy, these things will happen.
Yes, sometimes it involves blood - so far about 35 people - and political upheaval. Things are breaking down as we speak. Violence between the Cairo police and protestors, looting across the nation, and the rock solid demand that Mubarak stepping down is the only reasonable fix.. These are not factors that lead to peaceful resolutions. The Obama administration appears to be working towards a Mubarak resignation. Terms like 'smooth transition' are definite signs they want him to end his reign at 30 years...
The obvious problem is that there are HUGE unknowns: who takes over? what new freedoms will the people be given? how do they fix the economic troubles? Mubarak is not a favorite of the US - he is no Anwar Sadat - but, he is a known at least. Israel may be our bets friend in the Middle East, but Egypt is definitely second. Israel has it easy compared to Egypt... It's no picnic to be an Arab state and support the United States there. The fear that the people expect too much from whoever takes over, and eventually Egypt takes a step back and becomes a fundamentlist Muslim state, is a worst case scenario. The Suez Canal - the gateway from Europe to the Indian Ocean - under extremist control. Big Problems there...
Does Mubarak put his country over himself, and leave it better than it is now? We'll see.... Being a ruler for decades makes you think that you're invincible, and that it will last forever. But, nothing lasts forever. Ask Saddam Hussein. Ask the Shah of Iran. Ask dozens of 'Presidents For Life'... Everything ends at some point - except this blog, maybe! The bigger question may be will it end peacefully .... or does it get ugly? We'll see. We'll see.....
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1 comment:
I think we may be able to infer the world's economic concern by watching the price of oil over the next few days. Friday oil jumped app. $3.50/barrel, estimtes for today are in the $7-$10 range. The possibility of $150-$200 prices are being seriously considered by market forecasters ($200 oil translates to roughly $7/gallon gas).
If oil does spike and stay high we will see a sharp increase in energy/food prices as well as the some items not being available at all due to costs. Persistant high fuel prices will have a major negative impact on any recovery and could transistion this from a "recession" to a full blown depression.
Diplomatic concerns aside for the moment, the unrest in Egypt and it's potential for spill over into Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Sudan, Yemen mostly likely will make world markets extremely volatile in the near future. In short, hold on its going to be a rough and bumpy ride and it is going to ugly...teg
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