Welcome to SC6's overdue post Election Day coverage... It certainly was an interesting Tuesday, as many surprises took place across America. With wins in the Governor races in Virginia and New Joisey, the Republican Party certainly is viewing the results as a sign that the pendulum is swinging back in their favor. That is true to a point. After all, how much worse could it have gotten for us? And like always, the best way to get support back is to let the Democrats take charge in DC every once in a while, and watch them implode. Then it goes back to us, and we do the same thing, but it's more fun at least to be in charge........
We are always the Salmon swimming upstream to temper the unwarranted enthusiasm of our party, and to be the cheerleader when they think the world is at an end. We're kind of funny that way.... Well, before we go measuring the drapes on the White House in 2012, let's get a grip: We did pretty good, but not THAT great. I was reading the weekly column from Newsday's Ellis Henican, who is a Liberal Douchebag of the highest order. But, he and I did agree on one thing: Tuesday was not a GOP Slam Dunk as much as it was a revolt on Incumbents. Even on local levels. We lost a couple races in Florence County. We lost a congressional seat that we had for over 100 years. NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg, who is pretty much a Republican, spent $100 million, and won by 3 points....There is definitely room for improvement.
Nope, this year was more assuredly an assault on many weak incumbents, as will next year. So, who is in trouble, and who is safe? Right now, Mark Sanford must be happy as all hell that he's a lame duck. How about the others?
Jim DeMint
This may sound weird, but he may have one of the safer seats out there. Why? Becuase come hell or highwater, DeMint has sung the same song. Where six years ago, he was considered the luckiest guy in the party - think about how close we came to Senator Thomas Ravenel that year - to the most popular guy in the SCGOP. That's a fact. His party loves him, and they will bust their butts to keep him in DC. Unless the Dems put up a high profile candidate, which is still possible, DeMint should be safe.
Henry Brown
If Linda Ketner were running again, I'd say Brown would have a hard time. Ketner had a decent resume of private business experience, although she put her foot in her mouth a couple times. Ketner is supposedly out of the race. Brown would be susceptible in his own party, but Tumpy Campbell and Katherine Jenerette don't seem to have the chops to knock him off this year again. Brown stays by the same 52-48 margin.
Joe Wilson
I'll say this once, only because it's true....... "YOU LIE !!" was the best thing that ever happened to Joe Wilson. It made him a star, where he used to be a no-name Congressman with a reputation as a Bush rubber stamper. Rob Miller used his 15 minutes to get a lot of money, but he didn't use it to promote himslef. I'll be honest. I had to Google Joe Wilson Opponent (type in Joe, and Joe Wilson is the first name that pops up) just to remember Miller's name. If I can't rememebr, neither will the voters. Wilson is safe.
Gresham Barrett
I predict he will not be in Congress next year. Of this, I am sure!
Bob Inglis
Where do we start? If Bob wants to transfer into the 6th District, I think we'd gladly take him. He can stay at my house if he wants, because the 6th still doesn't appear to have a candidate. However, Inglis is in the 4th District, where the rule of thumb is the less Right you are, the more Wrong you are..... He's had a hard time since he took back his old seat when DeMint went to the Senate. It looks like there are fifty people running against him, but they'll all fall behind whichever one isn't Bob on Runoff Day, and that person will steamroll to DC in November. Inglis loses....
John Spratt
Cockroaches, Cher and John Spratt after the Nuclear Holocaust, right? When you've been in DC for 27 years, it ain't easy getting unentrenched, but Old Droopy Dog sure is trying this year, ain't he? It's hard to say you're a fiscal conservative after you vote for a $1.2 trillion Health Care plan that you can't pay for, and probably will cost way more than that. Still, Spratt seems to be bulletproof every two years, thanks to his connections at Shaw, where even Republicans tend to vote for him. Mick Mulvaney seems to have the inside track to the GOP nomination over Jamin McCallum. If Mulvaney can rattle and befuddle Spratt like the Town Hall people did - and if he raises a couple million dollars - then he stands a chance. I've seen Spratt spins his web of BS in person, and he can be beat. But, you just can't kill him for some reason. Spratt stays...... barely.
Jim Clyburn
If wishes were fishes, then we'd have a giant Fish Fry in a parking garage in Downtown Columbia - or Sumter - or Santee, wherever Clyburn says he's from. But, there is a little rule that usually holds true. A person who doesn't run will never win - Unless you're me and the seat is the 6th District Vice-Chair. Where is that quote from Teddy Roosevelt when you need it? At this point, we may soon allow people to volunteer their friends or relatives to run for the 6th District, even without their consent or knowledge. Please send all candidates/draftees names, addresses and daytime phone numbers to Tommy Grimes c/o, SCGOP, Columbia, SC 29202.... Clyburn wins, dammit!
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6 comments:
The only way Mulvaney has an easy ride to the nomination is if Spratt's numbers stay high. In that event, Spratt prevails.
Overall, the 5th is a Republican-leaning district and has been for years. If you replayed the 1994 race, where Spratt got 52%, with today's demographics, Spratt would be out.
A lot of ambitious Republicans, especially in York County, which makes up 40% of the district, would love a chance to move up. If they smell blood, you can bet Mick is going to have some candidates get in that race who have as much money he does, but with much more extensive resumes and support networks.
The last time the 5th had a GOP primary was 1992, when a fairly weak nominee with no resources got beat like a drum in the fall. If the GOP runs a hot primary, it's probably a sure sign that as soon as they settle the nomination, Spratt will be in a hell of a fight.
Mike-I don't know if I want to recruit a sacrifical lamb for the SC6. But if there is anyone who wants to take a run at Jimboy Clyburn and has a couple of million laying around to spend I'm all ears. You and I have worked the roads around SC6 for years and we still have a few tricks left up our collective sleaves.
Could Jimboy be beat, history has been stood on its head before. Remember Tom Dashle? Or even better then House Speaker Tom Foley?
As far as the others, I agree Demint appears a slam dunk and Joe Wilson may have to fight some but should finish off Miller 57-43.
I have known Bob Inglis for years and consider him a friend, but some of his recent votes will come back to haunt in the primary.
Henry Brown will have his hands full in the 1st with Katherine Jenerette and Trumpy Campbell,but at the end I think Henry will edge out Trumpy in a close primary run-off.
Finally that leaves Spratt or should it be Splatt? If the turn out in 2010 is strong in the 5th I think DeMint and the top of the GOP state wide ticket could have some coattails for Mulvaney in the general in November 2010. Yes I know thats a year away and that is an eternity in politics but I think we could see an upset with Mulvaney edging Splatt.
Now that I have done a bad imitation on Leonard's Losers, Percy get me out of here!...teg
If the GOP could not get Spratt out last time, I don't think he can be got.
The other side of the coin, does 'Whippa Jimbo remain majority whippa?
WR--as long as Jimbo is in congress I can promise you he'll be whipping something...
Sacrifical candididate or not, Jimbo has earned a fight if not in the primaries then in the general election and the $$$ it pulls from Dems coffers don't get to supoport someone else...
Watusi Jenkins, rebulikin 4 SC 6
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