We Actually Get to Handicap a Race in the 6th District .....

We Didn't Want to Do a Flying Pig Again, So......

Welcome to the best place in the world for analysis of the upcoming Republican Primary for the 6th Congressional District of South Carolina, also known as the Kingdom of James, aka Whipper Alley. If there is anyone who knows about running in the 6th, and working for the party in the 6th, it's me - not that you care. No, the person who likely will come out of the possible runoff won't have much left to take on Jim Clyburn, but it doesn't really matter anyway. How little chance does the winner have? The SCGOP announced a $365 fundraising drive to take back the seat held by John Spratt, but Clyburn wasn't even mentioned. At least they did put him on the T-shirt.....

I had been dreading and kicking back and forth the possibility of both a Republican challenger, and no challenger at all. We almost got it right. Earlier this week, most of us had been getting a bit squirrely over Nancy Harrelson running again unopposed. If it were me, I mostly likely would have passed if I would be solely blamed (justified of not) for any GOP losses from a Clyburn push in November. With multiple candidates, at least you can split the blame, and it should interesting. God knows me and Gary McLeod sure was... Problem is, we got three, instead of two - but it's better than the nine nutjobs in the 1st who want to run.... With that in mind, we offer our unequalled analysis of the race, which ain't easy, considering none of the three went around the district to build a base.

Nancy Harrelson

By virtue of her candidacy in 2008, Nancy has the most name recognition. That is good, and that is bad - say 'Gary McLeod' at a county GOP meeting in the 6th, and see what happens..... Without a doubt, this is Nancy's last stab at running, lest she ends up with the 'perennial candidate' label. Three races in three years is a lot, and the last one was pretty embarrassing. Anytime you lose after being the only candidate on the ballot, the stigma kinda sticks. As far as November goes, Harrelson says she has a plan: she got 94,000 votes in 2008, but it was still only 33%, which is the same as McLeod got in 2006, 2004, 2002....... No doubt she got a lot of votes for having an 'R' after her name, but some of us felt she was too mechanical and not really supporting ideas that she genuinely believed in, like the Fair Tax.

I've heard whispers about the strategy, but here are the facts: the 6th is 53% black, and they go 95% Democrat, so there is 50% right there. The whites go 2-1 Republican, so there is the 33% you get. Even if the planets realign, the Earth shifts, the sun stops shining, and you get 20% of the black vote, you are only at 43%. It cannot be done.... But, that doesn't apply for the Primary, so Nancy has a chance for the nomination.

Colleen Payne

I don't want to be dismissive of Colleen. After all, she did contact me from Columbia on Facebook about running, which I appreciated. I laid it all out for her, told her what she would have to do and have, and that a part time non-trad college student has no time to run for Congress. I guess she didn't listen, and I hope she doesn't miss the $3500 come tuition time in the Fall. It's not the first time a candidate ignore my good advice - but the smart ones usually do. However, I do understand the need to run just once. I never expected to win, I was hoping to get to 40%, and maybe get the state party to put some kind of effort into the race. The fact is, if a person wants to run, and has the money to get their name on the ballot, they will do it.

Jim Pratt

Pratt is the intriguing one in the race, possibly because I haven't spoken to or met him. From conversations I've had with others, the Orangeburg resident has some advantages over the other candidates. He is centrally located in the 6th, he has money to burn and access to billboards, which makes getting name recognition much easier. Also, he's a man, which is better because we all know men make better candidates. KIDDING !!! I just love to drive the people who think that the GOP doesn't want women in office crazy!

Seriously though, I have heard that Pratt claims he has the Tea Party support. This could be good, and it could be disastrous. If by Tea Party, he means fiscal conservative, great. If by Tea Party, he means the 9-11 conspiracists, Obama Birthers and other fringe kooks that sometimes make it on July 4th and April 15th, then we have a problem. Being the only male, he will need to be prepared to be called a racist, which Payne and Harrelson will not have to worry about. Still, he appears to have the major components that the other two lack. Cash talks where mere words cannot.

As a former 6th District candidate, and current Vice-Chair, my job is to both support any candidate interested, and to advise her/him on what to expect. Harrelson, Payne and Pratt should all be prepared to go down in flames come November - and take a lot of heat if any Republican candidate loses a tight race in the area, like Rose Mary Parham. It comes with the territory. But, that doesn't mean that we shouldn't have a candidate. My hope is that someone will finally get on the same stage as The Whipper, make sense to the voters, and hand him his ass for just one day, like I did in 2005 at Florence-Darlington Tech. I'll be glad to help.... Big Daddy needs a new roof, so just drop me a couple thou, and I'll write all the nice posts you want. Why not? Everyone else does......

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