It's Here .. Our Final Odds For Primary Day.

Who Takes the Checkered Flag .... And Who Needs the White Flag?

Since our last posting of odds, there has been a lot of action, which is to be expected when a campaign enters it's final weeks. Some races have been quiet, and some candidates have shot up and down in the couple weeks since last time. While some will take the checkered flag, others will be putting up the white flag of surrender - and a few will get the yellow flag, meaning see you in two weeks....

No, we aren't perfect on these things, so when we're wrong on a couple of them, we'll be the first to say of course. Guess we'll all find out Tuesday night or Wednesday AM, right? Or maybe, it'll be dragged out in the courts for weeks and weeks... God forbid. Anyway, here is what we think Las Vegas (or the Sun Cruz Casino boat) would put it at - if they cared....

US Senate

DeMint 1-20

Gaddy 20-1

No comment needed. The SCGOP appreciates the donation, Mrs. Gaddy.

Governor

Haley 5-2

McMaster 7-2

Bauer 4-1

Barrett 5-1

McMaster's lead is gone, as Haley and Bauer make the jump. No doubt we'll be playing on the 22nd, with Haley as pretty likely, but her hands are full in the runoff. Barrett is stuck in neutral and has been almost since Day One. The big question: will Bauer catch McMaster?

Lt. Governor

Ard 7-2

Connor 7-2

Richter 7-2

Kitzman 12-1

Anyone who thinks they know their guy is leading is fooling themselves here. The only leading candidate is Undecided at almost 50%. Some polls have Connor, some have Richter, and Ard is more of the establishment candidate. It's strictly a GOTV effort, which Connor has the motivated people, but hell, even ballot position may play into it. Your guess is as good as theirs...

Treasurer

Chellis EVEN

Loftis 6-5

Loftis has been ripping Chellis in a lot of straw polls, and even though some attacks were weaker than others, he has closed considerably. This one could be real close, but without media buys, the non-active voting public won't know Loftis on Tuesday, so we think Chellis survives - just barely.

Attorney General

Wilson 3-2

Lord 2-1

Bolchoz 6-1

Like we've said all along, Bolchoz will be the odd man out. Wilson's name recognition and Lord's contacts are just too much to overcome. But, Bolchoz can be a bit of a Kingmaker with the 15-20% in the runoff. What he does with it may determine the winner....

Comptroller

Eckstrom 1-5

Meilinger 5-1

Eck rolls along to a third term, his friend on the other hand......

Superintendent of Education

Zais EVEN

Payne 5-1

Nelsen 6-1

Moffly 20-1

Burgess 25-1

Price 50-1

We're going to predict that despite the six candidates, Zais pulls out the 50% by the skin of his teeth. If not, then he'll likely face Payne, who has grassroots support the others lack. Then on the 22nd, she'll face the inevitable. Don't mess with Jay Ragley.....

US House - 1st District

Scott 7-2

Thurmond 4-1

Campbell 9-2

Jenerette 10-1

Lutz 12-1

Witte 25-1

Parker 33-1

Glasson 33-1

Kabrovsky 33-1

Oh, we'll still be going to a runoff, but Scott appears to be the one with the most juice right now. Campbell may still catch Thurmond, but either, along with Jenerette and Lutz to a smaller degree, can affect the runoff. June 22nd is still anybody's game - but will they have any $$$ left? Linda Ketner must be kicking herself....

US House - 2nd District

Wilson 1-10

Black 10-1

One more, and Black gets the 'perennial candidate' tag. Rob Miller !!!! There, I finally remembered. He may not have earned it on The Hill, but Joe's a star in the GOP now, and Miller's best shot was two years ago. Tick, tick, tick........

US House - 3rd District

Duncan 5-2

Rice 3-1

Vasovski 15-1

Cash 25-1

Collins 25-1

Grimaud 30-1

By far the quietest disputed race, give credit for these guys remembering Reagan's 11th Commandment. It's still a Duncan-Rice runoff, but we think Duncan will be a few points ahead, and there are likely no Kingmakers amongst the losers here... Virtually unchanged.

US House -4th District

Inglis 8-5

Gowdy 3-1

Thomas 10-1

Jeffrey 20-1

Lee 25-1

Cockroaches, Cher...... and Bob Inglis. If you're looking for a good reason for closed primaries, this race may be it. While we still expect a runoff, Inglis' cause may be helped by Democrats who know that Inglis is the lesser of five evils in their eyes... It may take 2 tries, but we think Bob goes back to DC.

US House - 6th District

Pratt 7-5

Harrelson 3-1

Payne 6-1

Pratt would make the best choice is at least looking good when he gets hammered by Jim Clyburn, and it's beginning to come around. Harrelson is finding out that being the only option 2 years ago doesn't make you the first choice now....We'll still have a runoff, but who knows what happens then, when they're coming to vote on Governor, Lt. Governor, and AG - and then they see this one again? We don't think Pratt has enough to close it out on Tuesday. If he started six months ago.........

Good Luck to all..