Runoff 2010: What the Candidates Need To Win

Get It? RUNOFF ??? ... Oh F**k You, Like You Know Funny.

In just a couple days, we'll have the full slate of GOP candidates filled out - Thank God. This was a year for the ages in terms of ugliness. Just when you think the last cycle was as bad as it would get...... For each candidate, the needs and strategy are different. Some can cruise, some need to tinker with an endorsement or two (or twenty), and some have their work cut out. So, we're taking a few minutes to analyze what each candidate has to do to win on Tuesday. Yeah, to have done this about 12 days ago would have been helpful, but no one came paying for the advice. So like a guy at the strip club with his last dollar, we held back.....

Governor

This is the easiest. More important than who would win this race is the effect it has on all the other races. Nikki Haley only needed a point or two. Henry McMaster's help will easily get her over the top, but her main advantage are the motivated Tea Party people. Gresham Barrett absolutely has his work cut out for him. We thought he might drop out, but that didn't happen early, so now he's forced to ride the string out... His only hope was that something new came out to enforce the Haley scandal, and that didn't happen. Any last minute changes of mind? Doubt it. Haley 63-37.

Lt. Governor

Whoever wins has a lot to do to follow up on Andre Bauer - not all of it good. This is one of the more interesting races. Ken Ard pulled out a seven point edge on Bill Connor. If Barrett had dropped out, we think Ard would have a much easier time. Connor is counting on Haley to have some big coattails with Tea Party crowd. Ard did get the endorsement of Eleanor Kitzman's 15%, and was smart enough to avoid outwardly going for Larry Richter's 24%. It kept Connor from being viewed as the total underdog. No, Ard won't get all of Kitzman and Richter's votes, but he'll get enough. Ard 55-45.

Superintendent of Education

Yeah, we got this one wrong, as did a lot of people. No, we don't exactly where Elizabeth Moffly snuck up on everyone at 19%, although she did well in some Straw Polls. We thought Mick Zais had enough to avoid the whole thing, but people weren't paying attention, and Zais - well, his name starts with a Z in a 6-candidate field. Zais' team is more organized,and they got caught napping already. We don't see it happening again. Moffly needs a strong Tea Party - female turnout, but it'll fall just short. Zais 59-41.

1st Congressional District

After an impressive 16 point win in the Primary, you'd think that Tim Scott would take his foot off the accelerator, but he hasn't. Scott has gotten endorsements from the biggest names in the GOP in Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee. Not sure if either actually KNOW Tim (we do), but they see the chance to make history. And we'd love to see him sitting RIGHT NEXT to Jim Clyburn in the SC Congregation Photo.. However, Paul Thurmond has a decent resume, his name if Thurmond for Pete's sake, and Tumpy Campbell is out, so he'll get a lot of the old School vote that might not be ready to vote for a black Congressman. Sorry, can't sugarcoat it.... The wildcard? Oddly enough, the Tea Party people. We see a slight 'the way things used to be' vibe. Thurmond needs it all, but he just hasn't gotten the traction Scott has. Scott 54-46.

3rd Congressional District

Our biggest flub of the Primary? Totally missing Richard Cash. When you give a guy 4%, and he wins, you eff'd up. Told you we didn't know jack about Upstate, but, we'll try again... We're guessing Cash had the Tea Party vote, since he has no experience in politics. That will go far, especially Upstate, but we have a feeling that Jeff Duncan lost a lot to Rex Rice in the primary, and Rice finished a close third. Rice's votes almost get Duncan there, but Haley is still on the ballot, so we see a tight, tight race here. Probably the closest of the night. Its probably the only GOTV race out there. Duncan 51-49.

4th Congressional District

Every year, there is a sacrificial lamb that loses unexpectedly... and then there's Bob Inglis. We thought the Shit Storm had calmed down for Inglis, but his second place finish to Trey Gowdy June 8th signaled the end was near, though not quite over. Called a RINO well before the term was thrown around like a frisbee, Inglis had a hard time calling himself a conservative after his Bush years spendathon. The 'sensible Democrats' we refered to stayed at home, and Inglis has little to hold on to now - unless Haley quits the race. Whattya think? Gowdy beenfits from being the most qualified in an anit-incumbent year. Timing is Everything. Gowdy 56-44.

6th Congressional District

Ahhh, to be home again. We got this one pretty dead on in June, with Jim Pratt coming out ahead of Nancy Harrelson, but with not quite enough to win outright. The bad news for Pratt was that Colleen Payne didn't siphon off very much, so there isn't a lot to draw from. But, Pratt has had a slow, steady mojo going. Harrelson had the advantage of being on the ballot previously, but the attack from inside the party has been pretty harsh, and many feel that Pratt will give the GOP it's best chance to win - and by win, we mean 40% in November. The Tea Party is kind of nullified here, because both have been working with them, so it's a push. The odd part we see is Harrelson actually getting LESS Tuesday than on June 8th. Pratt 60-40.

Personally, we went 0-2 in races we ran in, so what do we know about winning a race? Nothing... Still, you must read us for some reason..... We'll just assume you think we know what we're talking about - just ask Richard Cash and Elizabeth Moffly how much we know!

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