Some Candidates Have the Straws, Others Are Grasping For Them...
We've mentioned for years that Straw Polls are pretty irrelevant. Anyone who's done statistics knows that the smaller the survey sample, the more inaccurate the results will be. Also, most Straw Poll events are schewed a bit by a candidate's presence at an event. Almost a gratitude/sympathy vote. So, should we totally ignore a Straw Poll completely? Not always. Take Clarendon County for example. Their motto is 'You Can't Win Without Clarendon', and for good reason. I'm not positive, but I think they've picked the winner of every GOP primary since Reconstruction....
A more solid reason we like the people of Clarendon County is that it's centrally located in the 6th District (a REAL 6th District County), and the people involved locally are just active Republicans, not people who use the party as a vehicle to run for public office. It's a decent gauge - but not perfect, of course. So, what are we saying? Not much of anything I guess, but here were the results....
US Senate
Jim DeMint 93%
Susan Gaddy 7%
Governor
Henry McMaster 60%
Andre Bauer 18%
Gresham Barrett 15%
Nikki Haley 7%
Lt. Governor
Ken Ard 65%
Bill Connor 20%
Eleanor Kitzman 11%
Larry Richter 4%
Attorney General
Leighton Lord 40%
Alan Wilson 40%
Robert Bolchoz 20%
Treasurer
Converse Chellis 73%
Curtis Loftis 27%
Comptroller
Richard Eckstrom 74%
Mike Meilinger 26%
Superintendent of Education
Mick Zais 63%
Elizabeth Moffly 20%
Kelly Payne 13%
Brent Nelsen 2%
Gary Burgess 2%
Glenn Price 0%
US House, 6th District
Jim Pratt 44%
Nancy Harrelson 40%
Colleen Payne 16%
What can we draw from the votes. Well, Clarendon might be just a tad more centrist than South Carolina as a whole - possibly from the many Wyboo Yankee transplants that have become more politically active here. Should we expect a McMaster/Ard win in June, without a runoff? Hell no. Clarendon has been snubbed multiple times by the Haley Team for no-shows, and the poll reflects that. Although Clarendon might be a good gauge for Ard-Connor, based on it's being directly in between both candidates home bases, there is no way Ard is a 3-1 favorite.....
Aside from that, most of the others fall in line well with what we've been gauging, although we think Moffly's 20% falls a bit on the sympathy side, due to her team's presence at the Event.. For the winners, they can make a good press release out of it, while the losers know that they have some work to do.. And for now, the folks in Manning, Summerton and on the right side of the lake can still brag, 'YOU CAN'T WIN WITHOUT CLARENDON'......
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2 comments:
I believe we will have a run off int the Governor and Lt. Gov. races. This Supt. race is starting to go big time for Zais. Could be he can pull it off the first time not sure. In Congress it still leans for Nancy but Jim can make a run off with her. Nikki would had done better if she showed and Richter canceled the day before the meeting. Hope you watched all the you tube video we had of them on the Clarendon page and thanks Mike.
Mike--I've been going over the straw polls results across the state and I have noticed a few trends..Henry wins the vast majority and a few of those are by rather large margins...on the Lt.Gov. race Richter is not getting alot of traction once you get outside of the lowcountry..it appears Ken and Bill are headed to a run off...Converse and Richard appear to be on cruise control back to Columbia...The Supt of Education is be probably going to be Zais and ????...and the 6th looks like a run off on 6.22.10 with Jim and Nancy but a lot will depend on the candidates avoiding any last moment verbal flubbs...one things for sure though it's going to be an interesting Tuesday night...teg
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