Well... It IS Derby Weekend .
With just 37 days left until the Primary, things are starting to take shape..... Some campaigns are making moves towards getting into the runoff, which is likely in many races this year. Meanwhile, some pretenders are bubble campaigns are losing traction at just the wrong time. It happens. Some are just victims of too many good candidates, and some kinda shoot themselves in the foot. We've got some changes, albeit shight ones, in the major races - but three or four points is the difference between winning and losing. Without further gabbing, here are the new odds from Louie, our bookie in Vegas....
Governor
Henry McMaster 9-5
Gresham Barrett 3-1
Andre Bauer 7-2
Nikki Haley 7-1
The big move is that Bauer drops just enough to let Barrett slip into second alone. Bauer's bad press and lack of big endorsements hurts, while Haley is beginning to tail off from the others strength...
Lt. Governor
Ken Ard 5-2
Bill Connor 3-1
Larry Richter 11-1
Eleanor Kitzman 30-1
While we don't hold any relevance to local Straw Polls, Ard's win at the statewide poll does have bearing - unless you're Connor's paid blogger at Palmetto State Politics. Still Connor had a good showing, and the Tea Party support he has closes that gap. It's still a toss up at this point. Like many 3rd placers, Richter's power is shrinking, and Kitzman is irrelevant. It's still a two-horse race here.
US Senator
Jim DeMint 1-20
Susan Gaddy 20-1
Like many also-rans, I forgot Gaddy's first name.... That says it all. Demint rolls, no change.
State Treasurer
Converse Chellis 2-5
Curtis Loftis 5-2
No change on this one, although this race did get the most attention last time, due to Loftis' people spatting with a few readers. The race is a bit quiter, but not much...
Attorney General
Alan Wilson 3-2
Leighton Lord 2-1
Robert Bolchoz 8-1
Wilson makes a small break on top, by virtue of his name recognition, and Lord's statement about the AG not needing any prosecutorial experience. Still, Lord has a lot of money behind him, and this one is going to a runoff no matter what. Bolchoz is the odd man out, so his stock slips....
Comptroller
Richard Eckstrom 5-2
Mike Meilinger 2-5
Eck's e-mail fiasco seems to be in his rearview mirror enough to win handily. No change...
Superintendent of Education
Mick Zais even odds
Kelly Payne 5-1
Brent Nelsen 5-1
Gary Burgess 20-1
Elizabeth Moffly 25-1
Glenn Price 30-1
Even we were surprised when we hit the nail on the head on this one from poll results right afterwards. The small news is that, like Eckstrom, Kelly Payne keeps chugging along, and we have her pulling even with Brent Nelsen - although it may not be enough to get to a runoff with Dr. Zais... Sorry bad Planet of the Apes reference....
US House - 1st District
Paul Thurmond 4-1
Tim Scott 4-1
Tumpy Campbell 5-1
Katherine Jenerette 10-1
Mark Lutz 10-1
Stovall Witte 25-1
Clark Parker 33-1
Ken Glasson 33-1
Larry Kabrovsky 33-1
Thurmond and Scott are neck and neck, but Tumpy will not go away. With the three-dog race, it leaves Tea Party faves Jenerette and Lutz on the outside looking in. Witte leapfrogs into 5th, which still leaves him about 30 points short. Congrats!
US House - 2nd District
Joe Wilson 1-10
Phil Black 10-1
Personally, I'd hate for my nickname to be 'You Lie!!', but this is SC....Right or wrong, Joe Wilson has become a favorite in SC, thus his odds go up... BTW, it only took me two minutes to remember Rob Miller's name this time!
US House - 3rd District
Jeff Duncan 5-2
Rex Rice 5-2
Mike Vasovski 10-1
Richard Cash 25-1
Joe Grimaud 25-1
Neal Collins 25-1
Duncan and Rice are the clear leaders, and as it gets closer, the other begin to slide back. Vasovski and the rest may drain enough off to cause a runoff, but it could be close. Post primary endorsements could be the difference here....
US House - 4th District
Bob Inglis 5-2
Trey Gowdy 3-1
David Thomas 10-1
Jim Lee 12-1
Christina Jeffrey 15-1
The unstoppable tide that seemed to be the Anti-Inglis wave has passed it's peak now, and with it, Inglis stands a better chance. Gowdy is still on his heels, and may still win once the others are wiped out. Thomas and Lee fade off a bit, but slower than Jeffrey, whose Tea Party dred has taken serious hits recently - not that supporting Rudy Giuliani is a bad thing - unless you live Upstate.
US House - 6th District
Jim Pratt 2-1
Nancy Harrelson 7-2
Colleen Payne 6-1
Pratt has made the leap in front after all three candidates' YouTube spots in Clarendon County. Though he could have more time living in the district, local leaders appear to be whispering that Pratt is the best shot in the 6th to win - then get clobbered in the General Election by Jim Clyburn. But hey, there are more important things than winning. Harrelson didn't do much to help herself, and Payne admitted to living in SC ( Columbia, no less) only 2 years. 6th District people hate carpetbaggers, folks... Even I waited 8 years!
We'll post updated odds maybe a week or so before the Primary, but this is where we see it for now. Feel free to comment, and tell me how wrong I am.....
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10 comments:
DeMint will win his race.
Loftis just beat Chellis at the Dorchester GOP Breakfast Straw poll (Chellis's back yard) 60% to 40%. Over 200 people voted.
Of course, it is a straw poll...but the results should have been the other way around.
Be careful all the way out on that limb there, Moye...Although you have to admit, Rawl has a hell of a resume and on that alone has to be considered a serious challenger. Whenever I see DeMint talking crazy, I remember how badly Inez blew that race.
Mike--I may be about to damage my prediction's record but I think your odds are pretty dead on: Andre' is starting to fade (guess that must be the stray animal vote)and Richter can not shake the pedophile priest settlement. Zais may not be the best speaker but you can tell he is a cut above e-mail Kelly and in/out Nelson. On the AG's race, the whispers are that Lord is trying to buy the seat for a later run for higher office. Eckstrom and Chellis should win if they keep to the high ground and hard work.
Joe and Bob seem headed back to Washington though the 1st and 3rd could hold surprises in the June runoff. In the 6th Nancy and Jim could make this an interesting June...teg
Loftis is a joke.
I saw the Straw Poll results Anon, and i have a theory. First off, it was in Berkeley, which isn't quite Chellis' backyard - but close. Still, Summerville and N. Chas can't agree on anything, so why would Dorchester and Berkeley.
Theory 2. I noticed the Gov. poll, where Nikki Haley won in almost reverse order of the polling. Either Berkeley is seriously swimming upstream of the rest of the state, but a Haley win is a clear sign that Berkeley is still staunchly for Sanford, and Chellis would not be very well liked there, for obvious reasons. Damn, I'm good!
Run offs:
Betcha that
McMaster & Barrett
Ard & Connor
Wilson & Bolchoz
Zais & Nelsen
Scott & Thurmond
All end up in a run off on June 22nd
I betcha that Bob Inglis gets like 51% of the GOP vote, and avoids a run off too.
You are good and my next prediction is Nikki finish last out of the four in the primary. P-Luv I never go out on a limb. I am just that good.
Kitzman will lose.
Glenn Price will lose
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