5 Days to go until Primary Day, and Thank God! I'm running, and I've had enough of the TV , Radio , Newspaper and Billboard Ads!! Let's get this overwith already. First, I'd like to say thanks to everyone who came out to my Meet & Greet last night in Florence. Honorable Mention goes to Jeff Willis for coming out and making it back to Pickens !
I know Michael Reese is waiting on pins and needles to know who to vote for, so here are my choices, but more importantly, who will win. One thing I can guarantee - my vote is often the kiss of death - ask Mark McBride.........
GOP Governor: Mark Sanford. No slipper for Cinderella on this one. Oscar will get about 20% here. Lovelace has brought out a couple good issues, and it would benefit Sanford to heed some of them, but Marshall has a more solid base than some realize, and he'll roll on.
Dem. Governor: Tommy Moore. No, I don't particluarly care for Frank Willis, and it will be pretty close, but Tommy's support from the Party base will squeak by with a majority (53%). Willis(46%) will finally crack a smile, and admit he really doesn't want to be Governor anyway.
GOP Lt. Governor. Andre Bauer. Welcome to the beginning of the new Andre Bauer(51%). We may not have a runoff, because I don't think Henry Jordan(4%) will be a factor - but I could be wrong. I don't think Mike Campbell(45%) has voiced the info that is on his website well enough to unseat Bauer.
GOP Treasurer. My Vote: Greg Ryberg. Winners: Rick Quinn and Thomas Ravenel. Does anyone doubt that this one is going into overtime? This is strictly a guess on my part. I like Greg(28%) because he has supported lower spending more than anyone else. But it won't be enough. Thomas(30%) seems to be coming on a bit, despite his late start, and too many people don't like Ryberg because he's a Yankee. Too bad. One note: If Ryberg and Ravenel make it to the runoff, Ryberg will get the support of Quinn(30%), and Thomas may wish he didn't say anything during the ETV debate. Jeff Willis (12%) gets to play spoiler, and he earns some well-deserved respect in acroded field. If it's Quinn and Ryberg, who knows.......
GOP Sup. of Education. My Vote: Karen Floyd. Runoff with Bob Staton. All the RINO comments aside, I never met Bob Staton(38%) on the road, but I have met Karen Floyd(48%) a few times, and she's good people. However, the strong enough anti-PPIC crowd will keep Floyd from winning outright. Not a big deal- the Wood(2%), Moffly(2%) and Ryan(10%) voters are pro-reform also, and they'll side with Karen in the runoff.
GOP Agriculture Commish: Hugh Weathers. William Bell has been a strong opponent, but Weathers gets the nod here. He's done a good job bringing stability back to the position, changing the debate from Cockfighting to Ethanol. Bell just hasn't had the cash to get his name out enough, but he's made it fun. Weathers 60% to Bell's 40%.
GOP Sec. of State - Mark Hammond. Mark flies a bit under the radar, but he's done a good enough job to merit re-election. Sometimes having "I'll support Gov. Sanford more" as your slogan doesn't work, and Bill McKown has come off as a bit negative in this campaign, and the multiple signs don't score points with me either. Who knows on this one!
Dem. Primary, SC House Seat 62. I think there are seven candidates for this seat. My guess is Kevin Ethridge will get the white vote, and Wilhelmina Johnson will carry enough to get in the runoff. Ethridge's father being Darlington Co. Party Chair will carry his kid to victory. Don't know what took so long - after all, Kevin did finish Law School two whole years ago!
GOP Primary, SC House Seat 60. I can't vote on this one, but despite my support, I think Licia Stone will fall short of beating Phillip Lowe. Nothing against Phillip, but I've known Licia for a few years, and that counts more. Not a problem for Lowe, he is established in both Sumter and Florence, and the party support will carry him to the win.
GOP Primary, SC House Seat 63. I miss Jim McGee already. Whoever wins has my support, but I'm still making up my mind as to whether either of these guys wants me to help them when I knock on 3000 doors in their District this Summer and Fall. My guess is Bubby Floyd will win, but a Kris Crawford upset is always possible.
Will my prognostications ring out true?? I doubt it. But enjoy the last few days of media blitzing and not knowing what will happen....
8 comments:
Good analysis, Mike.
I'm still very unsure of the Lite Gov race myself, but I think you've hit the nail on the head with the other picks. Floyd may yet pull it off without a runoff (I'm actually doubting Wood, Moffley, and Ryan pick up a combined 5%)
And don't be at all surprised if Kris wins in 63. He's got a ton of momentum...
Mike,
Your analysis is def. going to help me tremendously! Good blog!
Also, you don't think it will be Ravenel and Ryberg in a runoff? I think I might will have to agree with you on your Andre Bauer prediction.
By the way, check out the audio interview I posted late last night with Mayor Frank Willis. He sounds like a philosophy or histroy professor that I had in college.
Ravenel doesn't seem to be catching fire like he did in the closing days of the '04 Senate primary.
Quinn, to his credit, hasn't let being caught between two millionaries, break his spirit, and that's given him a shot at this that I think a lot of people originally didn't think he still had.
I think Ravenel is hurt by his willingness to "step down" from Senate in '04 to Treasurer in '06, and having a hard time connecting why he ran then with why he's running now in the minds of voters.
I say Ryberg gets into the runoff, with either Quinn or Ravenel. It comes down to a question of which is more effective - Quinn's tenacity or Ravenel's checkbook.
I think Staton gets into the runoff with Floyd, but the others don't pull more than 10 percent collectively in that race. They just don't have the resources to get their message out.
Thanks for the local preview though - always interesting to know what's going on locally, since Florence is seldom on the radar screen!
Thanks to the loyal fans..I just have a gut feeling Thomas will be there, and if Quinn doesn't make it, Thomas loses. I think Mike Ryan has enough to pull Horry and some of Chas. to keep Karen from getting 50% the first try. Karen is tied to Sanford , and Horry has a block that HATES Sanford.
Some interesting info on www.conservativesinaction.com - Click on RINO search....Love thier electionmania.com cartoon!
I'm not on the RINO search , am I? It's pronounced like Reno, Nevada.
Quinn in runoff then wins. Bell upsets Weathers. Karen wins runoff. Sanford runs away with it. Andre squeaks by again maybe a runoff.
Hammond hands down over McKown/Flynn ticket.
Post a Comment