Sunday, July 22, 2012
Is Mitt Romney About To Have His Best Month Yet?
For a little while here, we've been wondering - along with a lot of political insiders - why Mitt Romney has been pretty quiet during the recent barrage of attack ads from the Obama camp. After much contemplation, we seemed to have gotten confirmation that we were right: it's Summertime, and no one is listening, so why bother? Yessiree, like a tree falling in the woods, if no one is there to hear it, it didn't really happen.
We ran across an article from Real Clear Politics' Robert Tracinski, and it pretty much confirms what we thought: Team Obama needs to try and label Romney now, while Romney cools his heels until next month... Then, Mitt kicks it into overdrive for what looms to be his best month yet.
Two big problems for a challenger is being labeled by the incumbent, and not ever looking Presidential. Obama overcame both of those in 2008 - the second one with his trip to Europe. As far as labeling, Romney seems to be in good shape.. After two weeks of endless attacks that even inferred he might have committed a felony, Obama is still stuck in a statistical dead heat at 47%. Not a good sign. Meanwhile, Romney is about to go on a month-long juggetnaut of good press...
It all starts next week, when he will attend the London Olympics - something he knows a little bit about. Obama can stop by and look important, but Romney's actually organized one of these, so it's hard to get any bad press from that. He continues his tour around Europe, which will lead right into making his VP pick. Lastly, comes the GOP Convention in Tampa before Labor Day kicks in.... Not a bad run, is it.
Of course, there are lots of variables to this... Just like Obama's ads, all of this could slide under the radar of voters obsessed with Back to School and one last vacation before Summer ends. Then what? There's a good chance that Romney's campaign could fall flat the same as Obama's try did. Add to that Obama has the last go around with the Democratic convention, so if Romney is still stuck in a dead heat after the GOP convention, he's in a lot of trouble once Obama riles up America with another of his hopeful missives... Not everyone's gonna buy it like 2008, but many will.
The big problem for Romney is not the nationwide vote - it's the Electoral College, which determines the winner. A 2-3 point swing will not win him the election. RCP has Obama with 250 votes in the bag, to Romney's 181. He needs to capture all the swing states, and maybe one or two not in play now. Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin ALL have to turn, and somehow snatching Michigan wouldn't hurt... Still, it all has to start somewhere - and Romney is banking on it beginning next week. If it doesn't, he is in a lot of trouble. Start your clocks............... NOW!