Guy Smiley Takes Arizona and Michigan .... Sort Of.
A win is a win is a win, right? Well yeah, and no. Confused yet? We are too.. Last night was one of those nights where a lot of the candidates had reason to feel good and bad at the same time. In short, we got a mixed bag and if you think Super Tuesday is going to clear it up, don't bet on it....
First, let's talk about Mitt Romney - aka last night's 'big winner'... he can lay claim to having won both Arizona and Michigan. Arizona's 20 point shellacking was good news, because for a while, Rick Santorum got really close there. The bad news for Romney and good news for Santorum is that he only beat Rick by 3 points in the states he claims as home. Looking at an electoral map, it's pretty clear that Santorum has a stronghold going across the Rust Belt, which is laden with delegate-rich states.
Yeah, Santorum would have much rather won Michigan outright, but as far as delegates, he actually tied Romney with 15 delegates each, based on his winning more congressional districts overall.. Overall, it wasn't a bad night, but his fall from both of them from a week earlier shows that he might want to get his message back on track, be not quite so serious and whiny, and reload...
Newt Gingrich is limping along so badly at this point that he may not even win Georgia, and has been passed by Santorum in much of the Deep South. Basically, if this holds up, his entire strategy to at least get to Tampa has been shot to hell. If he doesn't win anything but Georgia, or at least a solid second in all of them, the calls will start for him to drop out...and he may have to listen to them, hubris aside.
As for Ron Paul, despite his dull showings in both states, we kinda like his chances on Super Tuesday. No, he won't win anything, but he doesn't care about that. he just wants a few delegates, and being the only other guy on the ballot in Virginia helps. Add to that nice Granola states like Washington, Vermont, Idaho, Alaska and Tennessee - where they are very big on their personal freedoms - and he could bag a few of them...
Right now, without having really looked at a single poll, we'd give Washington, Virginia, Vermont, Massachusetts, Idaho and Alaska to Romney. Santorum wins Tennessee, Oklahoma, Ohio and North Dakota. We'll give Gingrich Georgia for now, but that may change. Stay tuned...
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We decided this was the best way to wrap up the discussion we've been having over the past week. We don't always do things the way others would like it, but we are consistent. Here's how we look at what we do... We respect everyone for what they do, but when we think things are being done in a less than fair manner, we call them out on it. Why don't we just call them? Because it's been done before, and unfortunately, it will likely happen again. Putting the fear of Blog and the 25000 hits we get a month in them is the best way we knw how...
We don't run things, and we never try to. We're not leaders here, but we view ourselves as the Conscience of the Party, where our activities - particularly in regards to intraparty dealings - are done in the most ethical way possible. Does it cost us friends in the GOP? Hell yeah, but it's earned us a lot of respect as well. When everyone all the way up to the Chair runs from you in fear of being fairly criticized, that's respect. If you're doing things right, you have NOTHING to worry about, and lots of people get plenty of credit from here for it. We may have enemies (though we don't view anyone as an enemy), but we have plenty of friends...
A note in advance: we won't be at the next GOP meeting in March.. We promised an 8 year old girl that we would be there for her 9th birthday. Besides, the next meeting is focusing on the Young Republicans, so setting a bad example by yelling at each other is the wrong move. It wouldn't come from us, but we'll pass on taking that chance...
Politics is a tough game. A blood sport in a way, where no one literally bleeds, but occasionally, they get injured anyhow.. It requires thick skin, and the ability to hear the criticism, filter out what is bullshit, and take the correct critiquing to heart. If you can't do that, then join a knitting club, where if you screw up making a potholder, you can tell everyone it's a handtowel. Then when you blow it again, it's a blanket, and so on...
We made our point, but we can't help when other people attack. Maybe it's merited. We make our share of errors, but the last thing we'll stop doing is to tell the truth for fear of tipping the ox cart... And we'll still be out there, seeing people, talking politics, and making sure it's done right!
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Vote For Hank: Because MEOW Is the Time, MEOW Is the Place!
Perhaps you've heard about this today, but just in case..... It seems that the Virginia Senate race between former governors Tim Kaine and George 'Macaca' Allen has gotten a bit more interesting. That's because there's a new candidate in the field... One that doesn't just talk tough, he meows it. Sure, Kaine and Allen may think they're hard on crime, but this guy's actually killed people - OK, maybe a mouse or bird.
Say hi to Hank the Cat, a nine year old calico mix from the Cavalier State! His owners have put him full bore into the Senate race, promoting him with a website, a facebook page, and even a Twitter account. No word yet on if he's filed officially with the FEC yet, but we'll keep you updated. We guess that since he's Nine, he would qualify for the minimum age to run - at least in cat years. he's gotta be at least 50 in that respect. In my house nine years for a cat would be TWO lifetimes!
We're not sure what his political leanings are, but we all know stances on the issues are irrelevant.... All Hank needs is some slick campaign slogans, so may we humbly admit these copyrighted slogans for our furry friend....
Hank the Cat: Finally, A Candidate With Some Claws
Hank the Cat: Because Allen and Kaine Can't Clean His Litter Box
Hank for Virginia Senate: Sic Semper Felinus !!
Hank the Cat: He's Had His Shots, and Taken Them Too
Hank the Cat: Returning America to that Shining Scratching Post on a Hill.....
Vote for Hank, Because if We're Gonna Have a Bunch of Pussies in DC, Let's Send a REAL ONE!!
Hank the Cat: Who Else Would Piss on Harry Reid's Chair Out of Spite?
Hank the Cat: Yeah, He F**ked Socks..
Vote for Hank: 40 Acres and a Bag of Catnip for Everyone !!
Hank the Cat: Because DC Could Use a Flea Dip..
And if his staff has any brains, they'll call Brian Setzer to play a couple shows for him!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEtbfzMLVWU&ob=av2e
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The First Problem For Republicans Is Which Rock Star Do You Go With - Dave Mustaine or Kid Rock? The Second Problem Is Most Don't Know Either of Them....
Rather than being serious and telling the truth about politics, which only seems to tick people off, we're going to go with our specialty: the goofy side of politics. With today's Michigan and Arizona primaries firmly at front and center, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are sweating out if either of them can clearly claim lead dog status in the GOP Presidential race. When it's tight like this, you pull out the big guns. No, we don't mean Governors, Ex-Presidential candidates or political commentators - we mean ROCK STARS, BABY !!!!
Since Jay-Z, P-Diddy, The Black Eyed Peas and Lady Gaga all seem entrenched in Barack Obama's camp, you have to the second tier - you know, musicians that actually play instruments. No, major country stars won't quite do this time... The GOP needs to get LOUD! Both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum got what they needed, even if they didn't both ask for it...
Just in time for Michigan, Romney was able to coax Eminem - sorry, we're just kidding. Actually, he got Michigan's own Kid Rock (aka Romeo native Bob Ritchie) to both endorse him, and sing his hit , 'Born Free' at a Romney rally in Royal Oak today. Yeah, a while ago, it may have seemed odd for a guy mistaken for Guy Smiley from the Muppet Show to be onstage with a rocker known as much for banging Porn Stars and getting into fights at the Waffle House as for singing, but times change. Our guess is all that listening to Lynyrd Skynyrd and working in Nashville finally converted Kid...
Not to be outdone, and likely not by his own choice, was Rick Santorum's pick as The Man by none other than Dave Mustaine of Megadeth... On the surface, it seems like a match made in Hell, literally. But, Mustaine has long been into politics, and he's much more intelligent and thoughtful than your average mid-80's Heavy Metal guitarist. Back in 1992, he was the first correspondent at MTV's original 'Choose or Lose' coverage of the GOP Convention, so he does have semblance of political knowledge. We know Earl must be torn, knowing that one of his favorite musicians isn't going with Romney, but hey, Mustaine did write the line 'acting like a robot' in Symphony of Destruction. To play on one of his albums, Mitt Sells, But Dave Ain't Buying... Is Rick Santorum all agog over the endorsement? Uhhh, no comment..
Hopefully, this will help those of you who still have to vote in the Primaries. We always advise you to choose wisely. If you still aren't sure, watch these videos, and see if that helps....
www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfpgpf6QVnI&ob=av2n
www.youtube.com/watch?v=glb2U6y-GdU&ob=av2e
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No More Pontificating About Tree Heights, Border Fences, Cars, Satan or High School... Primary Day Is Here at Last!
If it seems like this has been the longest waiting period for a Primary this year, there's good reason - it has been. Thanks to Florida jumping the schedule, and forcing all the other states to go along with it, a nice little gap was left in the season... and Arizona and Michigan were the beneficiaries. All of that jockeying was for not, and now Tuesday's primaries are viewed as make or break for both the Romney and Santorum camps. As for the Gingrich and Paul teams, they haven't snapped in two yet, but they are bent pretty far backwards...
This hasn't been the greatest month for either Romney or Santorum. Romney still perpetually is sticking his foot in his mouth, trying to have himself viewed as the everyman. Yeah, he was born in Michigan, but it hasn't been his home for decades. He needs to face facts: he's doesn't have a ton in common with the average Joe in Ann Arbor or Flint - and he doesn't need to. Instead of coming off as insincere, he should have said 'Look, I'm not like you in every way, but I get where you're coming from. A President shouldn't be just like you - he should be better than you, and I am.' Pretty cocky, yeah. But we appreciate honesty, touched with just a little confidence....
Meanwhile, Rick Santorum has done exactly what he shouldn't have - he is stuck discussing Social Issues. It may be red meat for the Right Wing, but the rest of America is cringing right now.. We laugh a bit when the Conservatives say we always lose when we pick centrists. John McCain and Bob Dole lost because 1) they were old, and 2) they ran into buzzsaws named Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. Go ahead and point to George Bush and Ronald Reagan, but neither was a Conservative. Bush spent like a maniac, and Reagan raised taxes a number of times, and compromised a lot. Both had great faith in God, but neither really let it affect their policies. Santorum is short timing his campaign, but long term it will hurt him. Agree with him or not, most people don't like having morality come from the political lectern....
OK, onto the races - and we'll be brief. Arizona looked like it may go Santorum's way - and we really couldn't figure out why - but Romney seems to have solidified his shrinking lead this week. Romney 43%, Santorum 31%, Gingrich 14%, Paul 12%.
Ahh, Michigan! This will be the interesting one. It is much better suited to Santorum, thanks to his coddling of the manufacturing industry, and it's conservative base in towns that don't end in 'etroit'... Santorum has a line going across the Rust Belt, and Michigan is the buckle of it. Polls are showing Romney with the slimmest of leads, but we go with trends, and we thinks Santorum pulls off a midnight upset. We'll make an advance call now: come Super Tuesday, Santorum waxes Romney's ass all over Ohio.. Santorum 39%, Romney 38%, Gingrich 13%, Paul 9%.
We're sure the media will make a big story out of Santorum beating Romney in his 'home state', but there will be two more important stories. First, Romney wins the all or nothing Arizona race delegates, and splits the Michigan delegates. So, even though each claims a victory, at the end of the day, Mitt widens his lead a bit. However, these were all states he was supposed to roll in, and Super Tuesday starts a tough run for Mitt. In basketball terms, he's on a road trip that includes games with the Celtics, Heat, Mavericks and Lakers. Splitting them will be a miracle.
In short, barring a Gingrich opt out, we are headed towards a brokered convention in Tampa... There's a long way to it, but that's what we see in the looking glass.
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Well, Rick Santorum took top honors for the cartoons this week, which is generally not a good thing. We try not to talk about social issues much here, and for good reason... No one wants to hear about it, but Rick has no problem with that.. He might learn in the end...
Of course, we're in Knicks country this week, where Linsanity has taken over. Yep, we should look up to a kid who sticks it out, achieves his dream, and wears his faith on his sleeve - or his wrist. However, mayeb we should be a bit of a role model more for his getting an Econ degree from Harvard. After all, kids have more of a chance of getting there than in the NBA....
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"If we move in mass, be it ever so circuitously, we shall attain our object; but if we break into squads, everyone pursuing the path he thinks most direct, we become an easy conquest to those who can now barely hold us in check."
- Thomas Jefferson, 1811.
After our last post, I think this quote seems appropriate... Easily put, together we stand, divided we fall. Be it in the district, nationally, or in your own home, in the end, divisions do just that: divide. It weakens us all, and makes us half as strong...
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It's the Old Dogs vs. the Young Dogs in the Race to Be 7th Congressional District Chairman and Vice-Chairman... But WHERE Is The Beach?
Around here, there is a lot of excitement about having our own congressional district. You'd be too if you were pegged under Jim Clyburn's thumb for the past 20 years - or had him stomping your face in the dirt, you choose the metaphor... While most of the focus is on who is running for the seat (as it should be), there is a certain amount of importance placed on the party seats related to the District. While there has been some speculation on who will be gunning for the unpaid seats, which carry only ad-hoc voting rights, the field seems to be finally taking shape...
First, the bad news. NO, I will not be running for anything. My home, like most in Florence, changed from the 6th to the 7th, but we'll be sitting out the 7th Convention, with the exception of covering it from the blog. As for the 6th, that may be a different story, but we'll see... The field is not set yet, but the are officially 2 candidates for Chair and Vice-Chairman - and they're all from Florence County!
It's a battle of the Old Guard and The Young Guns in both battles... Current 6th District Chair Tom Grimes, who has held District positions for the past 14 years, will make the switch to the 7th District. So far, the only challenger for Grimy is Florence County GOP Treasurer and former County Council candidate Elijah Jones. In the Vice-Chair race, former Florence County GOP Chair Tommy Phillips will be running against former Johnsonville City Councilman and 2010 Mayoral candidate Brad Richardson, who announced yesterday. While there could be others, we have one question first: Is anyone from Horry or Georgetown running????
So far, we haven't heard of anyone running for sure. Perhaps they will pull candidates on the convention floor, but we'd advise against that... All four are criss-crossing the District, lining up endorsements. The original word was that current Horry County Chair Johnnie Bellamy was interested in the gig, but word came from Columbia that she needed to focus on her own county. True or not? Who knows, but it does make sense...
The Vice-Chair hubbub has been pretty quiet. If anyone is running, let us know. The Beach is missing a golden opportunity.. Getting a majority of votes in a one-to-one battle will always favor the beach. Make it a two-to-one, and Horry should breeze to victory. If they choose not to run anyone, that's fine with us!
If the race does end with just the four candidates, it will still be interesting to us... Each have their strengths and weaknesses, but more interesting, it's a rematch of the famous 2008 battle where Phillips and his wife, Executive Committeeperson Shelby Phillips, were wiped out completely. Tom Grimes ,myself and another who shall remain anonymous were the only ones to vote for them. That was my famous 'coup' post, which started a firestorm of threats to Tom and me, where 'they'd get our jobs'... It was all pretty interesting, and we've forgiven the threats.
Where the Tommy's strength is their knowledge and experience, Jones and Richardson are workers, who will have the backing of the old Pee Dee Republicans, who are now most of the leadership in Florence County. Richardson already has a Facebook page up, and it's a good example of their enthusiasm - and their use of bad judgement and overzealousness. I'm sure Brad didn't start the page, but he needs to keep an eye on it. Here's an example of why....
I got a message stating that I joined Brad Richardson's page. I like Brad, and he would be a fine Vice-Chair, but I'm sitting this race out. I didn't join the page, so I checked to see how I got on it. Not to my surprise, I see I was ADDED to the list by Stephanie Rawlinson - along with FOUR candidates running for the Congressional seat, four members of Florence County and City government and six elected members or candidates of state government. It's up there to make it appear that this is the base that Brad's built up in 24 hours, which we know is unfortunately not true. Ever see Hugh Leatherman, Andre Bauer and Kris Crawford endorse anyone in an internal party race? We find it pretty impossible, and we know at least one person on that list didn't endorse Brad. Us...
It's classic Stephanie. She's like a bull in a china shop. Rather than doing it slowly, and honestly accumulating supporters, she goes half-cocked, and makes it look like everyone in South Carolina has endorsed Brad. Yeah, we're going to hear a pile on anonymous criticism for this. We're used to it. If Elijah and Brad win, we're fine. They're both good Republicans. But, if you look at this objectively, the tactic is dishonest. Then again, if anyone from Horry gets in, it may all be irrelevant....
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Confederacy President Inaugurated... This Time For Good!
Like we said last week, the posts were going to pick up a bit now that Spring came... Welcome to the next segment of our Civil War Rewind series, where we note battles and other events of significance from the Battle Between the States - 150 years from when they occurred...
Today, we have a moment that not a lot of people know about. On February 22, 1862, Jefferson Davis was inaugurated as President of the Confederate States of America. Wait, that was 1861, right? Yeah.. No, wait - 1862? Confused? Well, so were we. Time to clarify, because Davis' new title was actually shorter by one word....
Davis was originally named President on February 18, 1861.. But , he was technically named Provisional President of the CSA. Like many leaders - like baseball managers - are named on an interim basis. Davis was no different, and it's not surprising. many of the eventual states that seceeded hadn't even done so. We suppose they were leaving the door open for someone else, just in case....
After a year, and with things going seemingly well, the former US Senator from Mississippi was officially sworn in as President of the Confederate States of America - Provisional tag removed! And that's what happened, exactly 150 years ago today...
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What Would I Do With a Gun Rack On a Chevy Volt??!!! I Don't Own A Gun, Much Less Enough to Necessitate an Entire Rack ....
After taking a month or so off, Newt Gingrich finally got to say something witty again. With gas prices taking off like a Skyrocket (31 cents in 4 weeks here), people are wondering what the US can do to lower gas prices. Of course, lowering demand would be sweet, but it's tough to NOT drive to work. So, higher fuel economy is another option.. Newt's answer? 'You can't put a gun rack on a Chevy Volt'....
This is America, and if you tell someone you can't do something - by God, they'll do it. Sure enough, there's a guy on YouTube who showed that you CAN put one on.. While Wayne may not need a gun rack on the Mirthmobile, we guess some guys do. However, it would be a LONG walk into the woods...
Here's the link to the video. It's only had about 1450 hits, which means that EVERY Volt owner on Earth has watched the video to learn the modification. I do have one question: Is it me, or is this Earl wearing a bad wig???? You be the judge.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=zK0ieX9mHr4
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Census Bureau Study Shows That 2/3 of the Richest 15 Counties Are All In the DC Area... Where's All the Money Coming From??
No, we don't always expect you to go, 'Wow, I never realized that! Thanks, Mike.' Hey, we can't always dazzle you with nuggets of freshly mined information. Sometimes, we have to settle for numbers that make you say 'That's No Surprise'... But maybe you are stunned a bit. Because, while you may think that the richest counties in the US would be in Beverly Hills, South Florida, Palo Alto or Vail, they're not - they are almost ALL around our nation's capital...
Yessiree Bob, ten of the fifteen counties are from suburban Maryland and Virginia. In case you were wondering, neither is particularly better than the other: both have five counties, although Virginia's were slightly higher, including Number One Loudoun County, which averaged an obscene $116,000 per person - $15k more than any other county, and more than double the national average...
The remaining five were three from New Jersey, Nassau County, NY and Douglas County, CO - the only state west of the Appalachians... Each pretty much has a reason: the NJ and NY counties are pretty much Manhattan commuters, and Douglas is a wealthy Denver suburb. As for the other ten, it's pretty obvious - overblown government salaries. Federal jobs pay about 25% higher than their private sector equivalent counterparts. They cause the local governments to try and keep up salarywise, and that raises property taxes, which raises the cost of living, and therefore, ALL workers in the area need to get paid more. Yeah, it snowballs a bit...
So, if you want a pay raise, it's easy - move to DC! Just like every dumb government agency, they'll pay more for anything... Here's the link to the article, telling you the good news. The bad news is it costs an assload of cash to live there..
http://money.msn.com/family-money/the-richest-counties-in-america
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Hollywood Is Supposed to Be So Liberal, But The Oscar's Selection Committee Sure Isn't..
As far as we know, we haven't seen a single movie nominated for an Academy Award this year... Not even 'Bridemaids', which should have been right up our alley. We went from being pretty busy to pretty unemployed about as fast as a Lamborghini can do 0-to-60-to zero.. So no, we're not film experts, but we did find the numbers about the people who cast votes for the awards: They're Old White Guys - just like the GOP! Here's the facts..
94% are White
77% are Male
86% are over age 50.....
And yet, there seem to be so few Republicans in Hollywood.. California GOP, you obviously are not doing your work. There are dozens of potential recruits right in your neighborhood for the taking... Just get an Oscar pass on Sunday, and get to work! Then again, these numbers are even worse than the GOP. This isn't the GOP - it's the Rotary Club!
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This is the Pee Dee, and Take It From Us.. If You Ain't Born Here, Don't Bother Claiming to Be OF Here!
For starters, yes - Chesterfield County is missing. Take it up with the SC Sierra Club. Then again, Chesterfield counts themselves as a Midlands county. Depends on which situation is better for them. Can't blame 'em, because it ain't easy up in Cheraw...
Onto the topic. We've been listening to Uncle Bill Pickle's new radio show. So far, he's had two candidates for the 7th Congressional District seat so far. Both are from Horry County, and the interesting thing is watching both try to lay some type of claim to the Pee Dee. So far, we have one that hasn't lived here since high school, and the other one has never lived here - but has relatives in the Pee Dee. It's making us laugh to see candidates try to play connect the dots...
Yeah, it makes life a lot easier when you have a personal connection to a candidate - well, it's easier for them. However, you and I and they all know that the Pee Dee and Grand Strand are two distinctly different areas, with different priorities, strengths and weaknesses. Being on city or county council at the beach is not the same. The Pee Dee doesn't have major tourism, an Atlanta Braves minor league team, two biker rallies, or many of the seasonal and service industries that chug the Myrtle Beach engine. Meanwhile, Horry County lacks the agricultural, manufacturing and transportation strengths that keep our area running. It's two different beasts...
Though we share the same media markets, there is a distinct difference between the two, and a good reason why one area is worried about the other one gaining the representation of the seat. So far, the Grand Strand has all the candidates, while the Pee Dee's eggs are all in Jay Jordan's basket - at least from the Republican side. They may be playing it smarter, because the Grand Strand's vote is being split from all directions. This will help Jordan a lot in the first run in June. However, he has his work cut out in a runoff, if he does get that far...
People in the Pee Dee are funny. There is a special place if you were born here - and if you weren't, it doesn't matter how long you have been here - you're not local... Everyone knows it. It's slowly changing, but the small society of Old Pee Dee money and heritage is still pretty strong. Not being here or leaving here kinda throws that out the window. Try as they might, the Horry and Georgetown candidates can pump up their Pee Dee cred - but it deflates when put under the microscope. Trust us - after 15 years here, we've earned respect - but not the love!
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We Might Be Up a While Next Tuesday, Waiting for the Primary Results.... It's That Close!
It's eight days to go until we hit the next stops on the Road to the Nomination for Republicans. At first, Arizona and Michigan looked like Mitt Romney safe bets - given the endorsement by John McCain, and that Michigan is where he grew up, while his Dad served two terms as Governor. Then came the big push by Rick Santorum. Santorum has held a good lead over Romney in Michigan for a few weeks now, with Romney holding a safe lead in Arizona. But, it looks like both races may flip-flop by Primary day...
First, let's talk about Michigan. While it may be where he grew up, most people identify him more with Massachusetts and Utah than Michigan... Plus, Santorum has an obvious strength in the Rust Belt states. With it's evangelical base, watch the asswhipping he gives Romney in Ohio... So to us, a Santorum win in Michigan wouldn't be a surprise, but it's starting to come back. Romney has trimmed an eight point lead down to three in today's Rasmussen poll. Why? We're not sure Santorum's old-fashioned views on women in the military and birth control are enamoring him with some of them...
But in Arizona, Santorum is coming on like gangbusters. On February 2nd, Romney had an 18 pt lead - 42-24 -over Newt Gingrich! Santorum was way back at 13%, but in the latest poll, he is only 8 points down, 39-31%... That's catching 21 points in 18 days. Do the math... With eight days left, you never know. Arizona is not known for their moderation on the issues, so with Romney losing his air of inevitability, he is in trouble.
Right now, it could go either of three ways: they split, Romney takes both, or Santorum wins both... If they split,we move on. Romney losing Michigan is not a death knell. If he lost it to Gingrich or Ron Paul, yeah , that's a problem. But, if Santorum does take both, then Mitt has a problem. A big problem... The delegate count will be close, and Santorum will have all the momentum - and we'll be back to the calls for Gingrich to drop out, which isn't happening.
Eight days left... It may well be the most interesting -and important - overall day of the election so far. And you thought it all would end in South Carolina!!
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If This Is What Both Parties Have On the Agenda For The Rest of the Year, Then We're in Big Trouble...
Well, the big news on the Hill this week was the House passing the Payroll Tax extension, which keeps the 2% cut intact for another ten months... This was a lose/lose situation for Republicans. You vote for it, you just jacked up the deficit $93 Billion, and defunded the already teetering Social Security fund. You vote against it, and you just raised taxes 2 points on 160 million voters - good luck getting elected! In short, the GOP got owned on this one. Mark it a loss, and move on...
Now, the bigger concern we have.... According to every Sunday morning show we're watching, this will be the ONLY major legislation will come out of Washington this year. That's it... Nothing. Not even a budget.. Of course, that's par for the course lately. The Senate hasn't voted on a budget in three years. Getting the House, the Senate and the Executive Office to agree on anything has been almost impossible, and this year will be no different..
Yeah, it's an election year, and it's common for less to get done in that year. Let's reflect on that for just a second... Congress gets voted on every two years, and they spend 50% of it NOT working together. Gives you an idea of WHY we don't get anywhere. Someday, they'll all realize if they just forgot whether they had an 'R' or a 'D' in front of their name, and just did what was best for America, they'd ALL get re-elceted... No, we're not waiting on that either.
Our advice to everyone in DC is this: get back to work! We'll start at the top.. President Obama may be feeling comfortable with the economy seemingly going in the right direction, and is all set to put the country on cruise control. That's a bad move. 8.3% unemployment is nothing to be proud of - no President has been re-elected with the rate that high since The Great Depression. Our post about the unemployment rate and re-election shouldn't give him solace, because that history hasn't been written yet. What matters is the six months before the election, and if Obama takes a vacation to just campaign, it will hurt him. You get paid to lead, not campaign. Leading takes care of the rest...
Congress really had better not do nothing.... they do that already, and what little they do doesn't go anywhere. When your approval rating is pegged at 10%, standing pat is a bad idea. It probably won't work, but they need to continue to send legislation to Obama's desk - legislation that will pass - and force him to make decisions. Some of it won't be easy, and some may include letting upper class tax cuts go away. Some of it BETTER include cutting spending.... Letting Obama dictate the lack of an agenda isn't the right move.
It's simple. We voted everyone in DC to represent us, and doing nothing is essentially taxation without representation.. There's too much work to be done, by all of us. An empty to do list - an agendaless year - is not what we expect from DC.
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"In reality there is perhaps no one of our natural passions so hard to subdue as pride. Disguise it, struggle with it, beat it down, stifle it, mortify it as much as one pleases, it is still alive, and will now and then peek out and show itself."
- Benjamin Franklin, 1771.
Now, what Franklin is talking about isn't pride in what you do or are, but pride in being able to admit you're not always right. There's a word at the heart of what Ben's saying: Compromise. Pride is an ugly thing. We like to think we are always right, but sometimes, we aren't. Recognizing that, and being able to find mutual common ground is actually better than staunchness - maybe even if you're right. Stalemate's net result is nothing, and there are too many problems for nothing to occur...
Same goes with Bernadette Valez... There's plenty to be proud of, but it'd be a shame if nothing happened.
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Happy Sunday, it's time for our usual posts, where we note the best political cartoons of the week.... Our first winner is a common topic - Mitt Romney courting the conservative GOP. Not original, but as the primaries move along, it becomes more and more important - and it did include Cupid for Valentine's Day. We're not sure we'd have her as our Valentine anyway - her trunk is a bit junky..
While we don't discuss social issues much at all, we did find this one interesting. Seeing how 98% of Catholic women do use birth control, against the teachings of The Church, there is a bit of truth to this one..
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Hey Junior, WTF Is Up With the Mountain Man Look?
After a couple weeks of no sports since the Super Bowl (no, we don't watch the NBA, and since the Islanders suck, hockey is a lost cause), we have at least something to watch again. Yeah, we may have been Yankee-bred, but we do like NASCAR. When I was a kid, I was the only kid in New York who could tell you who Richard Petty, David Pearson and Cal Yarborough were... Little did I know I'd actually work for one of them.
Well, NASCAR is back this weekend. The big race isn't until next Sunday, but we do have qualifying for the Daytona 500 today. We don't follow much of the pre-race goings on, but we did note the arrival of Danica Patrick to NASCAR (can she race as good as she looks?), and the bizarre appearance of Dale Earnhardt Jr...
Yeah, we've Dale Jr. pull off the beard thing before, but not as crazy as this... he looks like he spent the winter up in the North Carolina mountains, and decided to turn of the moonshine still, come down, and race again.. Either that, or he's found a side hobby as a Civil War re-enactor, and is prepping for the 150th anniversary of Antietam in September..
Chicks do dig the beard thing. Even we've gone back with the facial hair, but the mountain man, Old Guy from 'Treasure of the Sierra Madre' look doesn't get you that far. Hope he enjoys picking breakfast, lunch and dinner out of that thing!
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"The Grecians and Romans were strongly possessed of the spirit of liberty but not the principle, for at the time they were determined not to be slaves themselves, they employed their power to enslave the rest of mankind."
- Thomas Paine, The American Crisis, 1788.
That's a nice little history lesson there. We Americans have never had a problem with being free (mostly!), but when we become virtual slaves to our government, we lose our freedoms yet again. We aren't there yet, but it's slowly sliding that way.. Another thing we haven't gotten yet is cutiepie Jessica Cauffiel - but we're working on something like that as well!
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Picking Winners, Leveling the Playing Field... How Propping Up and Supporting Clean Energy Is Backfiring on Obama's Game Plan.
Unintended consequences. It's a interesting term, isn't it? We all do things with certain expectations, but in reality the end game is much different that what we planned. We are all pretty familiar with Barack Obama trying to push clean, renewable energy sources. Sure, there are abject failures like Solyndra, but that probably wasn't much of a surprise. Solar home energy requires a huge initial investment. However, their electric car initiative is creating a totally different consequence - one that flies right in the face of his tax credo of every paying their fair share...
Above you see the Chevy Volt. Pay no attention to our post from yesterday when it comes to this car. Overall, GM is doing well, but the Volt is a loser with a capital L... The electric car, which also can run on gas, is a financial nightmare. It costs about $40,000, which puts the car out of many potential customers reach. The reason GM is making money,and not on the Volt, is the Chevy Cruze.. It costs less than half of the Volt, and gets a hefty 38-40 MPG. For the average driver, a Volt owner would have to drive it for approximately 20 YEARS to break even with driving a Cruze. Yeah, there's saving the environment, but what about saving people's pocketbooks??
One trick the government uses to promote sales is tax deductions. The Prius used to get a $2500 credit when it came out. Well, fully electric car like the Volt gets a whopping $10,000 credit. Yeah, it helps, but if you're in the 15% tax bracket, your actual savings is only $1500... So, the question is "Who can afford to drive a Volt?". The answer is environmental idealists. Rich environmental idealists.....
The numbers back it up. It's not just a theory.. According to a recent study, the average salary of a Volt buyer is $170,000 per year. Let that sink in for a second.. OK, now let's reflect on the policy. No, I don't think it was done intentionally, but the fact is that taxpayers are giving $10,000 tax credits away to some pretty well-off people. In the time of promising to 'level the playing field', Barack Obama has a plan that flies directly in the face of it...
In all honesty, the Volt needs to go the route of the Edsel, unless it can be produced for about 25% less than it is now. We complain that Washington has a habit of trying to pick winners. That's not true... Washington has a long habit of picking LOSERS, and that's the problem. The electric car tax credit was done with the best of intentions, we're sure. However, the benefits are going to people who don't need them - the exact people Obama rails against on a daily basis. He wants 1 million of these cars on the road, which is about $10 billion in tax credits. If voters knew the facts of this error, they'd freak.. We're sure they know, but they aren't talking. The best laid plans , right????
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Add Lipstick to the List of Things That Have Dangerous Trace Elements
We've said it a million times that Joe Jackson (not Michael's dad) wrote a prescient song in the old days called 'Everything Gives You Cancer'.. It seems every day, we get more kooky examples of how just about anything you use or eat will have something not good for you. Lipstick has just joined that list.... Bigtime.
Yep, over 400 different brands of ladies lipstick have been fund to contain traces of lead in them. We were a little concerned about secondhand lead exposure, but then we realized two things: first, we haven't been lucky enough to kiss many women on the lips lately. Secondly, we quit playing in that 70's Glam Rock cover band years ago, so we don't wear lipstick all that often anymore. OK, sometimes we dressed up like Buffalo Bill for the occasional 'Silence of the Lambs' party...
Today, we even read that organic baby formula has found traces of arsenic in it. Apparently, organic formula is made from brown rice, not milk, and brown rice naturally maintains arsenic during growth. Again, neither of these items will kill you, your wife or kid anytime soon. Lots of things have little bits of plenty of bad things - even in nature. Yes, even God makes bad things. Joe Jackson was right..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oDAkmfoAgA
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The Union Gets It's First Major Win at Fort Donelson ....
Welcome to the tenth installment of our Civil War rewind series, where we note important events in The War Between the States in chronological order, 150 years after they happened.. Things will pick up a bit here, as winters generally were not the time for fighting, but for training and keeping warm...
Up to this point, the war had not been going very well for the North. The Union army had been routed at Manassas, and they decided to train, and train, and train.. Out West, there had been a few smaller skirmishes, but by late winter, they were ready to go - and go they did. While the states in the East were pretty much decidedly Union or Confederate, the Western states often stayed on the fence...
Kentucky was the most important of those border states. Oddly, it was the birthplace to both Abraham Lincoln and Jefferson Davis, which I suppose would make it up for grabs. It officially went with the Union, but the South held out hope that victories by their army would sway them. Keeping a firm stronghold on their forts in Northern Tennessee were paramount to this plan, and Union General Ulysses S. Grant went right after them.
From day one, Grant was a fighter. Once it got even close to being warm, Grant attacked the installations along the rivers in the area. On February 6, 1862, Grant quickly took Fort Henry along the Tennessee River, and he set his sights on the main barracks at Fort Donelson, along the nearby Cumberland River, now known as Lake Barkley. Grant had predicted Donelson would fall by the 8th, but events quickly didn't go his way.. It got cold and snowy, and his reinforcements were late, so it wasn't until the 14th that Grant made his assault on Donelson... Let's go to the map for a second..
If Grant thought taking Donelson was easy, he had another thing coming. As you can see from above, the battery had cannons pointing right down the river from all angles, so any attack via water would be tough. Grant found out quickly...
The ironclads tried to pummel the Confederate troops into submission before sending in the troops, but Naval Ofc. Andrew Foote made little progress. Grant was planning a troop attack from the south with Gen.'s Charles Smith, Lew Wallace and John McClernand (going west to east), but the South struck first.. Confederate Gen. John Floyd, who only took over Donelson a week earlier, sent Gideon Pillow from their left flank, and landed a hard blow to McClernand's troops, pushing them back. Then, something stupid and another thing smart happened....
After winning the day, and with McClernand's troops scrambling, Pillow inexplicably pulled his troops back to the fort. Grant knew that Floyd had overloaded his troops to the left, so he counterpunched back to their right, where they were barely covered... It worked. Charles Smith took most of the earthworks, and was only stopped by nightfall.
Overnight, Floyd and Pillow decided that the only thing to do was surrender. Gen. Nathan Beford Forrest, who organized and trained his own cavalry, who incensed, but left later on that evening. Still, there were 13,000 troops left and Gen. Simon Buckner was left in charge to surrender. Buckner went to West Point with Grant, and assumed he could get good terms from his old friend, but he was wrong... Grant replied 'There will be no terms but unconditional and complete surrender. I propose to move immediately upon your works.' Buckner gave in.
Yes, the North had their first real victory, and the word was that the Grant's initials stood for 'Unconditional Surrender'. Tennessee almost in entirety would fall city by city to the North, and Kentucky was lost for good. Still, the North would step on it's own toes, as Grant soon would be relieved of duty by Union Commander H.W. Halleck out of sheer jealousy... In short order, Grant would return, and Halleck was retired out West.
Though it seemingly would start out well, 1862 would be the South's year, as an unlucky shot would bring a desk general out from behind his desk, into the field - and history. That's how it went, 150 years ago this week...
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7th District Candidate Renee' Culler ... Along With Her 'Campaign Staff'
Our comeback tour continued on last night, as we made it to the Kingstree Moose Lodge for Williamsburg County GOP's monthly meeting. It was pretty well attended, with about 50 guests, and the pot roast and rice w/gravy was deelish! More importantly, it was a stark contrast for me from Monday's meeting in Flotown..
I guess I can't blame Florence, but since they were freed from being in the 6th District, they have NO interest in their old district. I was proud to say there was plenty of Clyburn bashing in Kingstree last night. It felt like old times for me.. I did my best to be entertaining , yet brief. All the details regarding the 6th District Convention were reviewed (April 14 from 9-1, at Lake Marion High in Santee), and Williamsburg seems well-prepared to have a full slate of delegates at the convention...
Moye Graham also spoke to ask for his selection as a delegate to the National Convention for the District, as he did in 2008. It's not an easy or cheap endeavor, and Moye has served well in it. He deserves another trip... But, not all chatter was about the 6th.
The main speaker of the night was Renee' Culler, who is running for the US House of Representatives for the new 7th Congressional district. A native of Carver's Bay, Culler graduated from Pleasant Hill High in Georgetown County, and switched her plans from Law School to Chemistry and earned a BS from the University of South Carolina. She has worked in the field, specializing in dealing with EPA compliance. Culler says this gives her a real world experience in recognizing which government regulations have stifled business and hurt our economy.
Moye Graham and Renee Culler pose for yours truly....
As far as her stance on the issues, she is pretty comparable to most of the field: she is Pro-Life, Pro-Family, Pro Second Amendment, is for the FairTax and identifies herself as a Tea Party supporter. One issue that she did advocate is for the exploration of oil on the Atlantic shelf off the South Carolina coast. Culler sees it as an economic and national security issue, given the insecurity in the Middle East. Whether sun-loving people or the tourism industry in the Palmetto State agree remains to be seen...
Renee Culler does have her work cut out for her. She has no political experience, which makes it tough in a field of well-oiled politicians with lots of endorsements. But, she has a few things going for her. She is one of only two female candidates, and with Mande Wilkes being pregnant, she could possibly be the only viable one there. Also, for her, the family is an asset, not a liability. Her husband, Tony, and their four daughters, aged 7 to 15, make campaigning a family affair. The girls stunned me. They watched the entire meeting, were patient and attentive, and worked like good soldiers , passing out as many flyers as guests would take. The best part was one of the younger ones asking for a hug before I left. That was classic....
Culler's campaign is very reminiscent of my first run - an outsider with a dream, and a plan. These generally don't have a fairy tale ending, but she's working hard, and maybe she'll catch fire and stun some people. Time will tell. To learn more about Renee Culler and her campaign, listen to Bill Pickle's radio show on WJMX 970 AM, and 97.9 FM next week (Thursday, we think) at 900am. Or if you're busy then, go to her Facebook page Culler For Congress, or her website at http://www.cullerforcongress.com/
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Two Years After Being Bailed Out, GM Posts It's Largest Profit Ever...
Yep, the word came out yesterday that General Motors is pretty much back, leaner and meaner than ever.. The automaker recorded profits of $7.6 Billion, the biggest profit they have ever had. Only two years ago, GM was on the verge on bankruptcy, when they were bailed out. While we don't advocate the government jumping in at every turn, the fact is that if done right, a bailout can work....
To us, the key to whether a company should be assisted is first, if there are limited numbers of large firms in that industry, second, if the industry as a whole is shown to be profitable, and third, if the company in question can adjust it's business model to show it can be profitable as well... Banks and carmakers have long histories of being able to make a buck, so they were worth betting on, with established customers...
There's no doubt the more important part of GM's recovery was reshuffling their business model, and it's worked. Unions haven't been jumping for joy the past few years, but they're getting a nice little bonus now for their concessions: profit sharing bonuses to the tune of $7000 EACH.... Sweet, and that's how it should be, with every employee having a vested interest in their company's success...
Hopefully, the Obama Administration has learned a thing or two with GM... Gimmicks like Cash For Clunkers doesn't work. Allowing America's manufacturers to make themselves profitabe again does. Sometimes, it takes a little cash to tide them over, but if it's a good loan, it's a winner for everyone. The business stays open and thrives. They pay back the loan with interest, and taxpayers actually MAKE MONEY back. It's not picking winners like Solyndra - it's righting the ships that lost their way, and bringing them back.
GM will never be the giant they used to be, but that's good in a way. Detroit's bubble blew up 2 decades ago. However, they can be better now that they're not bolted down by so many union restriction. That's the point: if it can be saved, save it. In hindsight, the bank and auto bailouts worked. All the major corporations are still here, they're making profits, and soon, many will increase their payrolls. It will eventually allow Americans to be less dependent on their government, and all the social programs can be shrunk. It'll take time.. We're only on Step Two.
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Barack Obama Hits the Road To Celebrate Boeing's Big Contract.... By Visiting Where the Union Members Are.
Another day, another little slap in the face for South Carolina... President Obama is on the West Coast this week, doing the political two-step that candidates do: That is, he's stopping at all the ordinary people spots in the day, touting he's working for the little man, then going out at night to private residences at $35,000 per plate fundraisers. Such is the nature of the beast, and no - you can NEVER raise enough money...
The good news is that the economy is showing signs of a steady pick up, and one of them was Boeing's announcing that they just received the largest jet order in history from Lion Air - approximately 232 jets. Yowza! While we're sure this is excellent news for Charleston's 787 Dreamliner Plant, it seems to us that Obama took a bit of opportunity to make some peace with us, and instead, stuck his thumb in the Palmetto State's eye...
Yeah, he was on the coast, and the announcement was made right before he got there... But, these things are usually set up well in advance, so we're thinking the whole thing was timed that way. Maybe we are too suspicious, but it sure looks that way....
It really would have been a nice olive branch after the whole Boeing SC - NLRB debacle for Obama to pit stop in Chucktown, and mend some fences. No, it would never get SC to turn for Obama in November, but if he's planning on winning in November, he's still gotta work with us. So far, it's not happening. Instead, he hopskotched straight to Washington State and thanked them. Doing nothing would have been a better move...
Making speeches at certain times and places for political effect goes back as far as there have been candidates.. Abraham Lincoln was a master at it. Barack Obama tries to do the same, but he's not saving a split Union. He's making enemies of people with valid concerns - and he's raising a lot more cash than Lincoln did. Every location and word of every speech is planned for maximum effect. It basically says for him what he can't outright say - but some of us get it. So much for Olive Branches....
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You Might Think a Specific Number Will Determine a Win or Loss, But Our Research Shows It's Not the Number, But the Direction Of It...
If you know anything about us by now, it's that we are numbers guys. Nothing will convince us of anything more than to back it up with statistics, all relative to the argument your making. Two posts ago, we talked about how the economy is moving in the right direction finally, and that was bad news for the Republicans. Still, 8.3% unemployment would be the highest rate during a presidential election since the Great Depression. So, that's when the question came to us: what is the point that determines whether an incumbent candidate or party wins or loses? It started out with one question, but in the end, we got a different answer altogether...
Like Newton having an apple plop onto his head, welcome to what we think is probably the most important and groundbreaking post of the nearly 3400 we've written... Seriously, we think we have a winner here. We decided to check on unemployment rates in election years, to determine what they actually were just previous to Election Day, and if there was a break even point between winning and losing. Then we decided for kicks, we'd check and see if there was a trend going up to it. Thanks to the St. Louis Fed, we got every month from 1948 to 2010 listed. We couldn't have done it without you....
Not to bore you, but we'll go through the process step by step.. We took the unemployment rates from October of every election year (October because they come out right before Election Day). We then compared that to the unemployment rates from April of the same year. Why April? Because ordinary people don't pay attention to data on the day they come out. No, they have a delay, and their opinions are slower and more delayed. Simply put, they don't get more or less excited about the economy until much later...They just notice that things are better or worse than six months or a year ago. Then we noted whether the incumbent candidate or party won in November. Here is the data:
Year Unempl. Rate Change Win/Loss
1948 3.7% -.2 win
1952 3.0 +.1 loss
1956 3.9 -.1 win
1960 6.1 +.9 loss
1964 5.1 -.2 win
1968 3.4 -.1 loss
1972 5.6 -.1 win
1976 7.7 no change loss
1980 7.5 +.6 loss
1984 7.4 -.3 win
1988 5.3 -.1 win
1992 7.4 no change loss
1996 5.2 -.4 win
2000 3.9 +.1 loss
2004 5.5 -.1 win
2008 6.5 +1.5 loss
OK, there are the numbers... The first thing you might think is that there would historically be a point where the American public thinks the economy stinks, and therefore would vote for the other party. Well, there is, to a small degree... That number would be 6%. If you are a Republican, right now you are very, very excited. Don't be.. Yes, 6% is a pretty good number to shoot for, but it is far from foolproof. At 6% or less unemployment, the incumbent candidate or party went 7-3. At 6% or above, they went 1-5, with the only win being Ronald Reagan in 1984. In fact, the chances were better at over 7% (1-3) than at between 6% and 7% (0-2).... Pretty solid data, but we have more concrete numbers that will scare the crap out of Republicans.
When we said two posts ago that voters don't change things if they think the country is going in the right direction economically, we just thought it was a feeling, but we had no data to back it up. The St. Louis Fed data backs that up - completely... Rather than look at the rate, look at the 6 month change in the rate, and how the election turned out. In the years that unemployment dropped in the 6 months previous to the election, the incumbent party or candidate went an amazing 8-1. If the rate was unchanged or went up, they went a combined 0-7.... Stunned? You should be, and we sure were. The only loss was 1968, and that makes sense. LBJ declines to run, Bobby Kennedy gets assassinated, Vietnam is tearing the country apart, and the Democrats are left with their third string candidate. Even a 3.4% unemployment rate couldn't save them, as it couldn't in 1952 or 2000...
You can't underestimate the effect of a trending economy, even small ones. Most of these declines or advances are small - only three are .6% or higher, but they explain the election much more than the overall rate does. Look at 1976, '80, '84 and '92. Ford had 7.7, Carter 7.5, Reagan 7.4 and Bush 41 was at 7.4%.. Yeah three of the four lost, but Reagan's was viewed as a highpoint in America. Why? Because at it's peak, he had a 10.8% unemployment rate to deal with. If the overall rate were important, then Al Gore should have landslided into office at 3.9%, nearly HALF Reagan's rate, and 25% lower than Bush 41's election...
Republicans like to compare 2012 to 1980, but in truth, 1984 may be a more correct comparison. Both dealt with bad recessions early in their first terms, and approached their re-elections with improving numbers. For Obama to get unemployment down another .9%, and avoid being re-elected with the worst rate in over 70 years would be tough, so we may hit a new high - or low... Time will tell..
Now, before all Republicans jump off a cliff, here is their one thing to hold onto: it's only February. The data goes from April to October, so if the economy stalls again later this year, the numbers may reflect a zero change or slight overall increase, and thus an Obama loss is possible. No, we don't advocate throwing the economy down the crapper to vote in a Republican - we like all Americans to have a job, including us.
So, you can throw out the stats about the Redskins winning or losing the game before Election Day, gas prices, or how South Carolina always picks the GOP nominee - that one has already gone down the toilet. Keep an eye on the unemployment rate. To most of us, it's all that really matters. It's the economy, stupid.. And remember - every tenth of a point counts!
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