Monday, February 20, 2012

Michigan and Arizona Tighten Up...

We Might Be Up a While Next Tuesday, Waiting for the Primary Results.... It's That Close!

    It's eight days to go until we hit the next stops on the Road to the Nomination for Republicans.  At first, Arizona and Michigan looked like Mitt Romney safe bets - given the endorsement by John McCain, and that Michigan is where he grew up, while his Dad served two terms as Governor.  Then came the big push by Rick Santorum.  Santorum has held a good lead over Romney in Michigan for a few weeks now, with Romney holding a safe lead in Arizona.  But, it looks like both races may flip-flop by Primary day...

    First, let's talk about Michigan.  While it may be where he grew up, most people identify him more with Massachusetts and Utah than Michigan... Plus, Santorum has an obvious strength in the Rust Belt states.  With it's evangelical base, watch the asswhipping he gives Romney in Ohio...  So to us, a Santorum win in Michigan wouldn't be a surprise, but it's starting to come back.  Romney has trimmed an eight point lead down to three in today's Rasmussen poll.  Why? We're not sure Santorum's old-fashioned views on women in the military and birth control are enamoring him with some of them...

    But in Arizona, Santorum is coming on like gangbusters.  On February 2nd, Romney had an 18 pt lead - 42-24 -over Newt Gingrich!  Santorum was way back at 13%, but in the latest poll, he is only 8 points down, 39-31%... That's catching 21 points in 18 days. Do the math... With eight days left, you never know.  Arizona is not known for their moderation on the issues, so with Romney losing his air of inevitability, he is in trouble. 

   Right now, it could go either of three ways: they split, Romney takes both, or Santorum wins both... If they split,we move on.  Romney losing Michigan is not a death knell. If he lost it to Gingrich or Ron Paul, yeah , that's a problem.  But, if Santorum does take both, then Mitt has a problem.  A big problem... The delegate count will be close, and Santorum will have all the momentum - and we'll be back to the calls for Gingrich to drop out, which isn't happening.

   Eight days left... It may well be the most interesting -and important - overall day of the election so far.  And you thought it all would end in South Carolina!!


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