We Finally Light Up the Tote Board For Who's Where in the GOP Battle
It's a bit ironic today in that after nearly two weeks here in Yankeeville, it's finally sunny yet cool enough for us to get to Belmont Park to watch the horses run.. And now, we have enough polling data to at long last put up some numbers for the odds-on favorites to take the initial primary!
Yes, our bookmaker, Lefty (no, he didn't lose a hand in an accident - he's called Lefty for the direction a certain part of his anatomy points. His eye, Pottybrain!) has been culling through all the data, and here's where we are at. Keep in mind, this is for the Primary only... Once the top two are chosen, we start all over again. There are some risers and dippers, but we think we're in the neighborhood.
Andre Bauer 7-2
Tom Rice 5-1
Jay Jordan 7-1
Chad Prosser 8-1
Katherine Jenerette 14-1
Randal Wallace 15-1
Dick Withington 35-1
Jim Mader 50-1
Renee Culler 50-1
Yeah, we have Andre in the lead right now, because he is the only candidate pulling consistently from both ends of the District. New polling data showed what we thought after the FMU-SC Now first poll: that they overpolled the Grand Strand by about 10 percentage points, and that Tom Rice overpolled and Jay Jordan underpolled. Jordan finally showed us the money, and despite the general consensus that his ads were subpar, the old adage that even a poor ad is better than no ad.
Speaking of ads, the field has seemed to settle a bit, and we think that it may end up very close to these numbers. Though he has risen, we think Jordan may peak at these numbers. Chad Prosser seems to already have peaked, or even dropped a point or two, while Tom Rice is leveling at the 20 percent area. So, although Andre will likely take the first round, it doesn't appear to be a landslide, and the battle for second will be close. Given the rabid enthusiasm Florence Baptist Temple and the FCGOP to a lesser degree have for this race, it may be enough to put Jordan at Number Two if the GOTV effort is strong...
The big surprise to us during the whole race is Randal Wallace being stuck in the pack, and gaining little traction. It appears he's logjammed in a field of candidates with similar resumes, and he just doesn't have the financial backing to break out. Katherine Jenerette has a niche with the military background, and being the leading female candidate, which is why we think she'll pass Wallace, but only good enough to finish in the middle of the pack...
In this huge field, Withington, Mader and Culler are afterthoughts, but we'll give Withington the extra point for having enough cash to buy some radio ads. They've given a couple god ideas - and made the race more interesting at times - but they're in a tough field...
Feel free to trash us and say we don't what the hell we're talking about -especially those that are too close to see clearly. That's always fun. But in 2010, we were 700 miles away, didn't meet a candidate, and called almost every race correctly. Damn you, Trey Gowdy!!!! Now, for us, as for the candidates, it's off to the races!