Saturday, June 28, 2008

Erection 2008: Will the Presidency Be Decided By a Spoiler ?

They're Both Smiling Now, But Will McCain or Obama be Blindsided By a Third Party Candidate ????

We might say this every four years, but it's more correct this year. 2008 will be a turning point election year. For the first time since 1976, we will have an election that doesn't have a Bush or Clinton somewhere on the ticket - at least I think so, but that may change, and I may be correcting myself as I write this. It's about time. This county needs to move on a bit, and change it's course to a point.

When you have such a turning point election, there is the possibililty of a third party candidate coming in and changing the outcome. John Anderson in 1980, Ross Perot in 1992, and Ralph Nader in 2000 all played a part in who won. Could 2008 have a similar outcome? Well, it depends on the candidates running.

Back in 1992, George Bush was finishing his first term, and with the economy being sluggish, there was a bit of 'Reagan fatigue' settling in. For whatever reason, Ross Perot caught traction, and picked off enough of the center to tilt the '92 election for Bill Clinton - despite Clinton only getting 43% of the vote. Can it happen again? Not from the vantage point of fatigue of the major candidates. There is no incumbent, and as much as the Democrats try to call a McCain win as a third Bush term, the truth is change is coming , no matter who wins.....

That being said, what about the actual third party candidates? Is there another Perot in our midst? I doubt it, but let's review......

Ralph Nader - Independent.

Remember Pearl Jam's first album? Remember how different it sounded, and the juice it had on it's release? Everyone was wearing flannel shirts and Doc Martens, and growing out their hair and doing heroin.... Okay, maybe not heroin. Now, remember the third album? Me neither. Well, Nader is on his third run, and the shtick is getting old. I listen to POTUS 08 24/7 in my car, and even there, Nader isn't getting any airplay. He won't get the 3-5% that might kill an Obama victory, and the Dems have finally figured that out. So, the left will likely close it's ranks on the left - especially with a flaming liberal like Obama on the top of the ticket. Nader, 1% or less....

Bob Barr - Libertarian.

This could be interesting. Why? Not because the Libertarian Party suddenly has clicked with the voters. But, because Barr was a longtime Republican, and he essentially hijacked the party convention - which happens to the Liberatrians alot. No, there isn't a true Libertarian at the top of the ticket, but that may be good for them - and bad for John McCain.

It's true, McCain does have a little bit of a problem with the right wing of the GOP. So, will those hardline conservatives that we hear so much about evacuate the party and go with Barr? Maybe a few. The thing about the GOP , as opposed to the Dems, is that they have always known the effects of voting of leaving the party, so a mass exodus of 15-20% of all Republicans voting for Barr and costing McCain the 7-10% of the overall vote that would absolutely kill a McCain win is very unlikely. But, this is a very close election. I don't believe the polls giving Obama a 12-15 point lead at all. We're at the 3-5 point gap that a Libertarian candidate could still swing the election. A Libertarian has never won more than 1%, but Barr might up that significantly. Barr 1-3%.....

It's still a toss-up, so a third party can swing a very tight election. However, this year, both sides and the voters all know the consequences of throwing away their vote on Nader or Barr - and it IS throwing your vote away.... 2008 may not be very close in the end, as it really is a referendum on Barack Obama's readiness and ability to lead this year. So, I'm guessing Barr and Nader will not affect the election.

My brain is hurting from all the thoughful commentary.... I'm going to work on my next post - The effect of the economy on Strip Clubs..That's more in my wheelhouse anyway. Write what you know, right???



down on graham slough in a thunder storm mg said...

what about the dude from NYC

Mike Reino said...

I think Bloomberg is sitting this one out. Obama and McCain are okay in is view, and Obama is raising enough money to make him bot do it.

Bloomberg is a smart businessman - smarter than Mitt Romney. He's not going to risk $400 million of his own money to run and possibly lose.

west_rhino said...

PUMA looks intersting... VVVEG

google "party unity my A.."