Thank God, it's finally over ! All the talk, the debates, the polling and the unrealistic expectations are finished. In just a few hours, the Iowa Caucuses will take place.... We will at long last have a winner, and the rest of America will gte their chance.
Really, in the whole political scheme of things, Iowa is small potatoes. There will be over 2000 delegates awarded in the Primary/Caucus season. Iowa will give out 20 of them... Winning Iowa will not make or break any campaign - well, maybe one or two. It'll be just a small notch in the belt, but it does give the winning campaign a little cache'. Need an example? Who won the Nebraska primary in 2008. We rest our case....
So, who will win it? We believe in a couple things... The media always is a few days behind whatever is happening, and secondly, you go with the mover. Close to 40% of those planning to vote say they are not solid in their selection, though only 7% say they are undecided. A bit contradictory, but there is as much fluidity as any caucus ever.. To us, that is Rick Santorum. Call it luck, call it no one else being left, or call it brilliant strategy, but Santorum's timing is perfect. If he has people at the caucuses aggressively pushing for him tonight, he can take it - barely.
Mitt Romney has a good organization, as does Ron Paul, but both have maxed out, and Romney really still has not moved as the Tea Party/ Christian Conservatives seem to lack the monogamy in their politics as they preach in their lives otherwise. Just an observation.. Overall, it will be as tight as they say it will. Basically, it's a three way tie in the low to mid 20's for all three. For number four, Rick Perry has better organization that Newt Gingrich, and his people will deliver a decent 4th place. Michele Bachmann will be in serious trouble after a 6th place finish - just six months after winning the Straw Poll. She talked the talk, but there have been no solid plans that made anyone see her as a solid candidate...
Santorum 24%, Romney 23%, Paul 22%, Perry 13%, Gingrich 9%, Bachmann 7%, Huntsman 2%...
Yeah, it'll be a wash, where even the winner only gets five delegates. they usually say there are only three tickets from Iowa, but don't be surprised if all seven stay in for now.... So, where do they go from here? It'll sound strange, but Santorum, Romney and Paul should visit New Hampshire for a day or two, then get to South Carolina ASAP... Romney has it locked up, with Paul a pretty decent second. Santorum could sneak in third, but who's looking for third place finishes? As usual, The Palmetto State will be a major player in determining the GOP candidate.... as it should be.
What about the rest? Perry and Gingrich need to go to New Hampshire. Gingrich got close to Romney when he peaked, so to hold serve on second is a big deal for him. Perry has the cash and organization to possibly steal a second, which for him would be a big deal. Bachmann also needs to go to South Carolina, which she fully intends to do. I'm still getting e-mails daily from her, so even though everyone else sees the writing on the wall, she's still in denial. Jon Huntsman has put all his chits in New Hampshire. He's running a pretty distant 4th, and we're pretty sure it ends there....
We'll see how it goes, but it all starts tonight. Let's get it on !
.
No comments:
Post a Comment