Sunday, January 22, 2012

Gingrich Newters South Carolina ...

We Go Inside the Numbers, And See If This Is a Trend Or a Hiccup..

    Like we said, it's gonna be a long race... Yesterday, South Carolina gave Mitt Romney a gigantic bitchslap, and handed Newt Gingrich a convincing win in it's GOP Primary.  How dramatic was the comeback?  On Monday, Romney led 30-22.... It ended with Gingrich winning 40-28.  So, Romney did lose a couple voters, but essentially Gingrich got all the undecideds, nearly doubling his output..

   How did it happen? Mainly, Gingrich kicked the crap out of Romney in the two debates, but there are a few stats from the voters that make us wonder what they were thinking.  In short, SC was set up for Gingrich to win, much like New Hampshire was made for Romney...  Before we get critical, let's go over the good points.  What made us happiest is that endorsements essentially don't mean squat... Personally, we don't care who Nikki Haley, Curtis Loftis or any of our local Senators or Reps voted.  We make up our own minds, and it appears they did.  Good for you!

    What did they say? A few things, and not all made sense... The telling stat was that 48% now viewed Gingrich as the most electable.  How so? Much has been made of the debates this week, and that's the point.  No longer is policy or platform the key to electability - it's the ability to stand behind the podium, next to Barack Obama, and tear him to shreds in a debate.  Yeah, Gingrich threw red meat to the voters here by attacking the media, but you can't accuse the media of bias in a General Election debate. Still Gingrich can debate better than Romney..

    Electability is a good point, but we found a couple things confusing.  For starters, voters viewed Gingrich as the 'True Conservative', with Romney dead last in that category, when the truth is Gingrich has plenty of moderate legislation and votes in his closet.  However, it's not what you are, it's what you are viewed to be.  Strangest of all was Gingrich's strength with Evangelicals.  Again, he thumped Romney and even Santorum, who earlier got the endorsement of a coalition of a national group earlier this week.  It's seems a bit hypocritical for devout religious people to vote for a guy who's been married three times, and admitted to adultery, but they see it as foregiveness... If they were looking for the most Christian-like candidate, any of the other three would be better, but they looked past that, and patted themselves on the back for being so forgiving.. How do we know this? Only 2% of voters said Gingrich had the best moral character...

      No matter the thought process, the best part is that voters thought for themselves, and ignored the white noise of all the ads, endorsements and chicken bog speeches.  It's on to Florida now, and it will not be as easy for Gingrich there..  Northern Florida is a lot like South Carolina, but Southern Florida is New York South, where Romney will do better. Rick Santorum even has a shot to do well, but with the delegates being awarded all to the winner, both he and Ron Paul may skip it...  As we know, then days is a lot of time, so we'll just wait and see what happens.


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Mike-the media was making a loud point on Newt's lack of money Saturday night. Then came Sunday and in less than 24hrs, Newt's campaign reported a massive influx (supposedly) exceeding 1 million dollars. Now there are e-mails going coming in about another million dollar money bomb for one day this week. If Newt's campaign can raise 2 million between now and the end of the week to flood the Florida airwaves (and yes its a big if)Romney could have trouble.

Watch the debates tonight and Thursday specifically watch the crowd reaction. If the crowd in Florida reacts to Newt like they did in SC, Romney may be headed for trouble. Newt has timing and momentum on his side now, the question is can he make the absolute most out of it? He must otherwise he finishes 2nd to Romney (and it could be a poor 2nd at that). Oh what a fun 8days it is going to be...teg