For once, we didn't actually do that bad with the prognostications. OK, we lost out on picking the Iowa Caucus on a handful or votes in at 300AM. BTW, nice job by that idiot precinct captain who forgot to send in or lost the votes. Luckily, both the Santorum and Romney camps confirmed the vote totals, or we'd still not know who won. Not that it mattered too much. It is just a caucus, not a general election. There is no doubt who won last night... Mitt Romney is in a lot of trouble... The good news for America is that Rick Santorum showed that retail politics still works. Perry spent $359 per vote, Romney $49 per vote. Santorum? How about 73 cents??? We shit you not. You can't do that nationally, but it gives hope for more local candidates...
The whole battle has been Mitt Romney vs ABM (anyone but Mitt)... That being the case, with five other 'real conservatives' going up against Romney, he should have won the caucus pretty handily. That didn't happen. Eight votes. That's it. How tight was it? The margin was 7 times less than those who voted for Herman Cain. It was 40 times less than those who voted 'No Preference'... Romney is perpetually stuck at 25%, so once the extra flies in the race start dropping, Santorum - if he sticks - can easily pass him.
Like most Iowa caucuses, they served their primary purpose of weeding out the wannabes. That's how it goes: Iowa knocks people out, New Hampshire does the opposite of Iowa, and South Carolina rights the GOP ship.... Michele Bachmann is jumping out of the race as we speak, which she should..She was supposed to be flying to South Carolina, but we're assuming her credit card bounced... Her assertion that she is the only one who can beat Obama is ridiculous, and her platform speeches were more like pep rallies. Bon Voyage! Rick Perry is likely to do the same, though he has more money. He's on his way back to Texas, where we assume he'll grab a podium in Austin and announce he's quitting too. Next time, maybe he'll realize he's not running for President of Texas. The US is getting sick of hearing 'How We Do It in Texas'....
Now, it's onto New Hampshire. All six are going (yes, Jon Huntsman is still in the race). It's a no-win situation for Romney. Like a 45 point football favorite, he is expected to win, and big. A ten point win will be considered a loss. Luckily, most of the field is staying, and they will still split the conservative vote. Ron Paul will pull in Independents, who are allowed to vote. Jon Huntsman did very much like Santorum in Iowa. He's set his flag there, but will it be enough? We think Newt Gingrich is on a vendetta at this point, and much like an Al-Qaeda bomber, his job is to be the Bad Cop, and take out Romney... It will cost him votes, but those votes, and those of Perry and Bachmann, will go 75% Santorum's way. We'll find out soon, once the polls start coming out....
For once, New Hampshire will be more interesting than it was the last time around. Mitt Romney has a real fight on it's hands. South Carolina will give the race more guidance, and it will knock out a few more candidates - but it will go well past it. Like Santorum said, 'GAME ON'....
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1 comment:
Mike-as we have discussed, SC is Perry's Alamo. If he doesn't do well (and that's well in his campaign's opinion), he's out. So what could be considered well? IMO he's got to finish fourth and ahead of Newt.
Rick and Newt are splitting the roughly the same base with Newt getting the better part of it. If that trend continues here,Perry has no choice but to drop out.
Also, if Huntman makes it to SC he has to keep from getting blown out of the water. I doubt he can but in this election cycle there have been enought twists and turns to give someone whiplash...teg
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