The Speaker's Leaving Too Many Spots Blank For The Nomination..
We're 2 days away from the Florida Primary, and although things are not crystal clear, they are starting to clarify a bit. No, we don't see anyone in the GOP wrapping up the nomination anytime soon. Newt Gingrich is running a close second to Mitt Romney, which is nothing to be embarrassed about. But second place is the first loser, and there is no Miss Congeniality in presidential races.. Candidates often try to minimize their weaknesses, and Gingrich has a major problem on his hands - his organization.
Mitt Romney's strength is that he has a nationwide organization, while Gingrich put all his marbles in South Carolina. It paid off well here, but to win, you need a lot more than South Carolina. It's a national race, and Gingrich simply has not put together a national team...and it may be too late.
It's all numbers. According to numerous sources, Gingrich has failed to qualify to be on the ballot all over the place. There are over 2000 delegates up for grabs, and you need about 1100 to win. Gingrich is giving up on 544 of those contested delegates. Simply put, Newt has no shot at almost 25% of the delegates. He's giving Romney half of what he needs to get the nomination. He'd have to win more than 2/3 of the remaining ones left to win, and with most of them being awarded proportionally by votes, that is almost impossible. Winning a winner take all state like Florida would cut about 10% of that off, but it's starting to look doubtful. If he loses Florida, then he is theoretically almost 600 delegates down. Game On? Nope. More like Game Over....
It all still has to play out, but organizationally, Newt Gingrich is behind the 8-ball... He's far from dead. If he can find that fire he caught in the SC debates, he could come back. Votes count more than money or commercials, but it takes an organization to get on the ballot, and Gingrich missed the boat when he lost his gang last Summer... It's gonna be a tough climb.