Thursday, January 19, 2012

The South Carolina Primary Becomes a Battle ...

Two Days to Go, And The Race Is Like a Mosh Pit.... With One or More of the Candidates Waiting to Unexpectedly Get Kicked Square in the Face.

     Flux... That's the best term we can think of to describe what's going on in South Carolina right now.  Normally, with 48 hours to go, things are a bit more organized, with the campaigns having done all they can, and just focused on voter turnout.  Not the case at all here.  We haven't seen a race where there are so many variables left to decide a race.  Sure, there are plenty of races that are within the margin of error, but we have no less than FIVE issues that potentially could turn the Primary result on Saturday.... and none of them include the stupid weather.  Here they are:

Santorum Won Iowa?
    Suddenly, we are hearing that Rick Santorum may have actually won Iowa - but they're calling his 34 vote lead, with 8 missing counties (Nice Job, morons!) a TIE????  While we doubt it will bump Santorum any, the cache that Mitt Romney had of two wins, and possibly going 3-0, is suddenly a possible 1-1-1.  Not quite the mandate now, is it.  Romney's inevitability is gone...

Perry's Out
      Rick Perry is boring us with his dropout speech as we write this.  No, 4.4% is usually not make or break, but Perry is endorsing Newt Gingrich.  Will they all go to him? We doubt it.. South Carolinians are not blind sheep - they make up their own minds.  The vote will split, but Perry being out does hurt Mitt Romney even more....

One More Debate
     Tonight, the SRLC has the final South Carolina debate.  Mitt Romney gets another chance to set people straight on his finances, taxes and business practices, and Newt Gingrich has one last opportunity to show himself at his best.  Rick Santorum is trailing pretty far off, and Ron Paul has been pretty quiet as well.  Both need to impress in the worst way, or this will quickly become a two-man race. If it does, Gingrich gains again....

Gingrich's Wife on ABC
     Welcome to Mitt Romney's best hope... It's not good when you're depending on your opponent's ex-wife to drop an Atom Bomb on him, but Romney's done about as well as he can here.  We're hearing that she will say he wanted them to become swingers (uhhhh, no thanks, Newt).  Thta might get some of the Ron Paul voters to switch, but the big issue on whatever comes out is what the voters actually think about the charges.  If she comes off as an angry jilted ex-wife, it may do nothing, or galvanize Newt's support.  We're not so sure about that....

Undecided Voters
     Like Iowa and New Hampshire, South Carolina has a ton of undecideds.  I have my lab rat voters in reserve, both of whom voted for Obama in 2008, but are going Republican in 2012.  One seems set on Gingrich. The other is still undecided, but views Mitt Romney as an elitist prick - unofficially.  Roughly one-third of the voters are still deciding, but Gingrich seems to be gaining... But it all could end fast (see previous variable).

    So, who are we picking?  Well, we're not guessing just yet.  Why?  Because 24 hours is a long time when it comes to races like this.  We'll get a much better idea of how it'll play out tomorrow, and we'll tell you then!  It's a messy pit in there right now..... better stay out unless you have a sturdy pair of Doc Martens on!


No comments: