Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Time For the Florida GOP Primary .... YAWN !!

South Beach and the Other 4 Florida's Make Their Choice Today

     After 10 days of being the sole focus of the Republican Party, and two debates, the voters of Florida will give a clearer picture of who the nominee will be..  Yes, with a 50 delegate, winner take all primary up for grabs, whoever wins today will be the leader for the battle to take on Barack Obama in November...

      OK, that's enough with the buildup... It's pretty obvious that Mitt Romney is going to win Florida today. The real question is by how much?  Polls are showing Romney up by about 15 points over Newt Gingrich.  At first , it looked like Gingrich had taken advantage of his showing in South Carolina, and had actually passed Romney.  But there were a couple factors that turned the tide...

    It appears that undecideds are actually watching the debates, because with each debate, the polls shift much more than they used to.. Gingrich wasn't his usual sharp self, while Romney righted his ship at the podium.  Also, Gingrich's ties to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as a historian (or lobbyist, depending on how you look at it) did not play well in Florida, where foreclosures have killed the statewide economy. Compared to Mitt Romney being a venture capitalist, Gingrich's ties were more palpable and thus viewed as a worse sin...

    While the calls for Rick Santorum to step aside, so Gingrich can take Romney more head-on continue, it may not play out as he hoped. A telling poll is that if Santorum were not in the race, Romney would almost split the vote, still winning 49-33.  It shows us that the voters are really doing their homework, because the is not much difference between the two. In short, Gingrich is in trouble.

    All signs point to a significant Romney win... From here, Gingrich has to find spots other than a Deep South strategy. It's a nice block to begin with, but you need to win across the board.  Santorum is praying (literally) for a Gingrich implosion, then a miracle.  It's pretty doubtful, given that Newt's already fallen twice, then came back.  Ron Paul makes nice window dressing and comic relief, but as far as winning, he is an afterthought.... Mitt starts to roll from here on.

Romney 44%, Gingrich 32%, Santorum 14%, Paul 10%.


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