Tuesday, March 06, 2012

Super Tuesday Is Here... Who Wins, Who Loses.. And Who's Out.

Welcome to the Most Confusing Election Map EVER !!  It Won't Be Much Clearer After Today... BTW, At What Point Does the Mountainclimber Guy Fall Off the Edge, Like on the Price Is Right???

     Welcome everyone to our second favorite 'Super' day of the year.  Yes, we'd rather watch a football game than a Primary return anytime, but it's part of the game right?  It's not all fun here... It's our short analysis of today's Super Tuesday primary results.  Granted, it's not as 'super' as it used to be, but with 419 (or 437, depending on who you're watching) delegates for the nomination u for grabs, it's a big day towards seeing who has the inside track, who is close, and who is plain fooling themselves...

     Most of the states are pretty well set for different candidates.  Newt Gingrich's 'Everything between North Carolina and Florida' strategy is working according to plan, but everywhere else seems to be a lost cause.  Rick Santorum has totally blown up his Southern strategy, because even Evangelicals will admit when you have to pick between the devout Catholic and the converted Catholic who's been married three times, you pick the devout Catholic.  Hey, at least he's not a heathen Mormon, right?  The flags have been up for Newt for weeks now, and it should become official after today. Newt is toast... If he really wnats to beat Mitt Romney, he needs to get out of the way, and endorse Santorum.  No but's - just get out.

     Speaking of Santorum, he has found a power base in the chasm left behing by Gingrich's fall, but is it enough to win?  No, he needs to win some states in the rust belt, where he just barely lost Michigan, Ohio and his home state of Pennsylvania. That might give him a possibility of doing damage in Delaware, New Jersey, Maryland, New York and Connecticut, but we have our doubts.  We're going to disagree with our local Chairman Bill Pickle's analysis:  Mitt Romney doesn't need to win Ohio, but Rick Santorum does.  It's custom made for him: a hug manufacturing base, with tons of evangelical Christians.  He was up by 10-15 points a week or two ago, and that is long gone.. Although the delegates will be divided close, Santorum needs a 'W', not a 'Close, but...'

   We'd say Ron Paul needs to get out of the race, but he's not in this for wins, but to ferrit up a couple delegates here and there, so he can bring them all to Tampa, and try to get some aspects of his agenda on the platform. We don't see the GOP endorsing ending The Fed or five other dapartments, but knock yourself out, sir.  Ron will win nowhere, but he could pull a second in those vastions of Republicanism: Vermont or Idaho.  At this point, Ron is an amusing footnote to the race. Comic Relief.

    So, what's it like for Mitt Romney today?  It'll be good, although not great, for him today... Kind of a running theme in the campaign at this point, but it's working well enough. Obviously, he will win Virginia over Paul in the head to head primary.  Throw Vermont and Massachusetts - his real 'home state' in there as well.  For some reason, Romney does as well in the West as anywhere, and today will be no different.  Idaho will go slightly his way, and Alaska probably should too. again, not by a ton, but a win is a win...

   So, the two big prizes up for grabs today are Ohio and Tennessee.  In our opinion, and by looking at the polls, Santorum has blown Ohio.  Tennessee is slipping, but he has just enough evangelical support there to hold Romney off. So here is our scorecard....

Ohio, Vermont, Massachusetts, Virginia, Idaho, Alaska.

Tennessee, Oklahoma, North Dakota.


Miss Congeniality, Nicest Personality, Class Clown...

  Now, as far as the big picture, here is what we have... Given the current votes, and the way delegates are now weighted, Romney will obviously win the most delegates, but not by a landslide in any fashion. Gingrich will win about 50 from Georgia, but that's about it.  Paul will have more fingers than delegates - OK, maybe fingers and toes.  Santorum will pull about 140-150, and we see Romney taking about 200-210.  That isn't even half the delegates, and it keeps up our theory that we very well may go to Tampa without a clinched nominee. 

  If Gingrich gets out, then we REALLY have a battle on our hands. It would more interesting to us - a head to head match between the moderate and conservative..  Will it play out that way? Who knows... Gust says we'll see....


No comments: