Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Pennsylvania Recap: Hillary's Last Dance.


Hillary Is Still THAT FAR Behind........
Tie for parting thoughts on Pennsylvania. First, I was pretty close - alot closer than I usually am. I thought Clinton would win by 12, so ten pts isn't a bad call. Now, should Hillary fans be getting excited, and Obama rooters get worried? Nope.
I had to explain it all to Charles at work. He's 24, he's black, and he LOVES Obama. There was no way Clinton was going to lose Pennsylvania. It is a tailor made state for her. How? Let's count the ways.. Pennsylvania is:
Old
90% White
Union
Her Dad Was Born There.
Obama Isn't the Right Fit.
Despite all of this, Obama still managed to cut about 15 points off od her lead, and it looks like she'll only get a net gain of about 9-10 delegates. That is way too little ground to make up. The way the Dems award delegates makes it almost impossible for Clinton to catch up. If there were winner take all primaries - like the General Election, and the way the GOP does it - she might have some chance. But they don't, and the sand is about out of the hour glass for Hillary.
The primaries are not like Boxing, where you can get your butt kicked for 11 rounds, then deck your opponent with one mighty swing at the very end. It's more like Horse Racing. If you're 10 lengths behind at the final pole, you're going to lose - no matter how fast you're running at the end. Yeah, it'll go to the convention, and Clinton will try to show that she wins the big states to attract delegates, but she has no more gift states for her, like Pennsylvania was. Each will be a dogfight, and Obama has shown that he can close almost any gap by primary day.
Enjoy the win, Hillary. It's probably going to be your last one.......
.

5 comments:

tallahassee florida moye said...

she is toast

west_rhino said...

Pennsylvania jus don't like black folk. The AME church started over a charismatic black preacher that was leading a mostly white congregation in Philadelphia, but the black folk had to stay up in the balcony. This didn't site well wiht the preacher OR with one of hte founding fathers, Witherspoon, I think; who encouraged him to split off and lead a black church.

Race is still a reason some folks won't vote for Obama. They won't vote for McCain either so the Nader sponge will gobble some of the disaffected that would pull the big D lever. It won't help that a loose cannon like Bill could well be a bigger asset to McCain, campaigning for Obama than he is for Obama.

Call it quid pro quo Bill still has the feckless aura of a sore loser that might sabotage Obama's chances to say, you should have nominated Hillary. That's my read on the situation.

bobby said...

is that Hillary doing her version of the Subway $5. foot long commercial???

Mike Reino said...

Either that, or she just saw the Pam Anderson/Tommy Lee tape, and is judging Tommy's junk.

west_rhino said...

Mike, Jimmy might have someone reading your blog or the Clinton scorched earth tactics may be something a few more folks are reading between the lines.