Unemployment Rate Dips to 8.6% ... We'll Drink to That!
Once again, we are the salmon swimming against the stream... While America was stuck in the economic tank, we managed to stay employed. Now that we lost our job, America finally seems to be making a recovery. Personally, we can only hope, for our own sake, that America hits the skids once more...
The big question right now is whether the .4% sudden drop in the jobless rate is a true sign that we have turned the corner. The answer is: we don't know yet, but we're not quite convinced. All you can do is read the numbers....
Here's the good news: there were nearly 600,000 less unemployed in November, 2011 than in October. Yep, good news indeed. Not totally good, though... Only 278,000 found new jobs - mostly through retail jobs for the Christmas season. More than 300,000 quit searching for work last month. Yes, non-work seekers DO NOT count towards the unemployment rate. So, it wasn't as good as it might look on the surface...
We're figuring that December will be pretty similar. Retail numbers for Black Friday and Cyber Monday were very good, so most of the temporary hires will stay on through return season and New Years. The real question is how many will stay. Often in an economic turnaround, retailers will keep some of the temps on, and unemployemnt stays the same. So, the real test will be January, and into February. If it holds at 8.6% or drops, then we might finally be getting somewhere. Businesess are still waiting for all the indicators to be there, and they're not. But maybe soon....
Politically, it's reason for Obama to smile, but there isn't any reason to take credit, nor to think that this will win him re-election in 2012... There is a historical unemployment rate that wins or loses elections, and Obama is nowhere near it yet.. But if it drops another point by next November, it may be enough. WAAAAAAAYYYYY to early to tell. We'll see.
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1 comment:
I'm guessing it's just holiday help.
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