Imagine our surprise when we pulled this picture up to use that it came from Earl's Blog! The check is in the mail.... To no one's surprise, as we get closer to the Iowa Caucuses, the race is getting closer and closer. Once again, the leader is slipping in the polls, and every candidate's hot air balloons are running out of helium, with maybe one slight exception.
Yeah, it's tight. So tight, that we don't expect a clear winner. According to the latest Real Clear Politics poll, Newt Gingrich is still in front - but barely. Newtie is getting 20.3% of the vote, with Ron Paul steadily climbing at 19.3%, and Mitt Romney close behind at 18.3%. Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum are below 10%, with Jon Huntsman nowhere to be found. That happens when you stop visiting. All his eggs are in New Hampshire.....
Doesn't get much closer than that, does it? So, why is Paul making a run? That's easy: he's a Libertarian, so if you're a Right Winger in conservative Iowa, you can't do much better than Paul. We always thought it odd that Michele Bachmann was attacking Newt Gingrich to get the conservative vote, when Paul has been her main competition all along. Of course, trying to get a Ron Paul supporter to switch sides is like getting a Gamecock Fan to root for Clemson....
Iowa is tailor made for Paul, as opposed to the rest of the United States. See 2008, under the heading of 'Huckabee'... They's loves their Christian Conservatives up there, and the more conservative , the better. If Paul can't win in Iowa, he can't win anywhere. Honestly, he probably won't win anywhere else. South Carolina is a possibility, but we pick winners, and Paul isn't it. But, you take the primaries and caucuses one at a time, and Paul is in good shape for Round One...
Is Newt fatigue setting in? Maybe. In terms you might not agree with, Gingrich appears to have been working up his woodie slowly - right up until he got into the room with the prostitute, and promptly shot his wad. Call it Premature Election... In a HUGE surprise, Romney is stuck at 18-20% since 2008. Not enough to get elected, but still maybe to last until the also rans drop out, and he is left as the best choice left. Not exciting, but it may work...
In the end, it appears that it will be a wash, with all three equalizing each other, and then, it's onto New Hampshire, where Huntsman gets into the fray... There is still 13 days to go, so Paul could uptrend further to claim a more clear win by maybe 5 points or so. Not a mandate at all, but a win is a win. For now, it's pretty fuzzy..
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