Barack Thumps Hillary in Carolina, But Can He Go All the Way?
We've got our first asskicking in the Primaries in 2008... Barack Obama got out the vote here, and easily took South Carolina. No surprise there. When you get 80% of the black vote, and they're 50% of the total voters, you're just about there. But the big question now is can Obama do it nationwide?
To figure this one out, we have to look closer at today's numbers. We know the dominance Obama has in the minority vote, but he needs others to vote for him to not be another Al Sharpton or Jesse Jackson. He has some definite positive signs for the future. Of those who voted under the age of 30, he got 50% of the vote, irregardless of race. Obama undoubtedly has the youth of America inspired. He doesn't get viewed as a black guy. His ability to cut across those gender and racial lines will give him a bright future in four years for sure. If Clinton does beat Obama this year, and she loses the November election, Obama will be almost nominated in 2012 by acclaimation.
But back to 2008... I honestly don't know. There are good signs for Obama to keep rolling along and win the nomination. He won in 97% white Iowa, but he got only 25% of the white vote here in South Carolina. The Clinton's have pushed this into a block vote partially based on race, and that could hurt Obama in the end. But my gut tells me that this guy is taking America by storm..... There were nearly 100K more votes cast in the Dems primary than in the GOP primary. These things don't happen in SC. I had two friends vote in today's Primary, and I'm sure they voted for Obama.
I've vacillated back and forth on this for a month now, but I've got a feeling that Obama has the juice to win the nomination this year. I'm wrong a lot, so don't take it to the bank. If I am wrong, Barack shouldn't worry - 2012 could very well be his year....
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4 comments:
Yeah, but can he carry the Mo all the way to the fall? Probably not.
Media fads last 4-6 weeks with these candidates. Huckabee had his time in the limelight after Iowa, and now, he'd have to force them to cover him at gunpoint.
Give him time, and I think he's done.
But Saturday probably gave him enough momentum to ensure the Democratic race is long and probably divisive.
It may well turn out that the real winner of the South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary was not Obama, but the GOP.
Concur with Earl, and the GOP wins nationally with outraged Clinton at all costs games being played out.
I still have this gut feeling that Hill tanked SC on purpose to play a race card, Carvill's smiling too much, like he just drew into a straight flush (and he's not playing against Bill or Hill, so doesn't have to fold to keep his job.)
I agree with Earl and West
I agree that the gutter route may have been intentional by the Clinton Gang, whether it backfires remains to be seen.
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