Erection 2008: McCain is Going Down...

OUCH !! I Don't Like It Either, John.....





Here at SC6, we pull no punches. We call things as we see them in the hopes that the GOP will actually listen to an honest moron like myself. Sometimes I am the Pied Piper of Hope , but tonight, I seem to be the Angel of Death , or at least the Harbinger of Doom for the GOP next month. I'm looking into my crystal ball, and I see John McCain almost definitely losing.

Like we have said time and time again, the national vote means NOTHING in the General Election - much to Bobby's aggravation - so when you see McCain is a point of two behind nationally, pay no attention to it. The Electoral College is what matters. So the state-by-state tally is what counts. McCain is losing big time....

According to 270toWin.com , they calculate their predictions based on a 5pt or more lead to call a state. By that standard, they have Barack Obama leading by a count to 250 to 163. That means Obama only needs 20 more electoral votes to win. The states still remaining do not bode real well for McCain either. These are the ones listed as Swing States (within 5 pts.): Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Ohio, Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri , Colorado and Nevada. Ten states, and all Obama has to win is one or two of them.

I'm a big numbers guy. What is the statictical probablility of an Obama win right now? How about 99%.....There are 22 possible ways Obama can win. McCain only has ten, and there has NEVER been a poll that has shown McCain winning an Electoral Election.. Yeah, a while back, none of this mattered, but when you are within 30 days of the election, they are very important. What we have right now is Obama is on mile 495 of the Daytona 500, chugging along at 198 MPH, and McCain is a lap or two two down, not stalling, but not gaining any ground....

John Kerry got 251 votes, and Obama has picked up New Mexico and Iowa since then. Everyone talks about Ohio and Florida, but Obama has don eit by adding a couple little ones. The key state to watch is Missouri. They have gone on the side of the winner in every one of the last TEN elections. Obama has turned a 5 pt. deficit into a 1 pt. lead in the last three weeks. Why? It's a little thing that rhymes with Ball Street Shmailout.

None of this really has been McCain's fault. He's been tagged as a Bush third termer, the financial sector hit the shitter right as we hit the home stretch. It's all an amalgamation of bad luck for McCain. People are really mad at Washington, and the GOP is the party that holds the White House. It all plays out badly for McCain..

So, what do I think the numbers will be? Obama will take New Hampshire, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Minnesota and Missouri. Most of the Electoral Maps have a clear geographical trend, and I see Obama winning the Northeast, Midwest and West Coast - and that's where the votes are. Obama wins 319-219. It won't even be all that close....

I know, i'm ticking off a lot of my political allies, but if you want a biased GOP cheerleader, my advice is to read The Palmetto Scoop. My time is unpaid for, so I get to tell you the truth - and I think y'all appreciate it. I hope I'm wrong, and you never know - I did get the Gamecock game wrong today......... but I'm much better at politics.

.