Saturday, August 23, 2008

McCain Expects to Lose 15 Points This Week ??


If Team McCain Is Right, He's Gonna Need a Hug This Week....
In the auto business, we have a saying - Underpromise and Overdeliver. In other words, set the bar low, and then exceed it afterwards. I had a customer's transmission come in 2 days early, but did I tell him that? Nope. I'll wait til everything plays out, and give him a nice surprise at the end. John McCain's team is doing the same thing, but I'm not sure it's a positive.
In a memo sent out by McCain strategy director Sarah Simmons, they are sure that their neck and neck battle will quickly dissipate this week, with McCain expected to fall behind Barack Obama by a smuch as 15 points. Talk about setting the bar low........
In what the GOP sees as a 'Perfect Storm' of bad events, the following will take place: Obama chooses Joe Biden as VP, which is good for 5 points, then the Democratic Convention starts, culminating in Obama's historic acceptance speech, which is on the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther king Jr.'s 'I Have a Dream' speech. Then the mainstream media will then have an orgasmic crush of Obama Love for the following few days, which will turn the tide with voters. Soon afterwards, the GOP Headquarters will crumble into rubble, George Bush and Dick Cheney will be dragged into the streets and tarred and feathered, and God himself will emerge from the Capitol and anoint the Democratic Party as 'God's Party'. Okay, MAYBE I exaggerated after the Obama Love comment, but you never know........
So far, Chapter One of Simmons' premonition has come true, but we all knew Obama was picking a VP. The rest remains to be seen. They correlate the scenario similar to Bill Clinton's 16 point jack after his 1992 nomination. There are differences though, mainly that Clinton was running against an incumbent, and Obama doesn;t have that luxury. Try as they might, their attempts to tie McCain as a Bush clone is an extreme stretch, and their recent low blows on McCain's houses has nothing to do with the campaign - it's just an attempt to make Obama look like an everyman, but no one in DC is an everyman. Mr. Smith is dead......
Still, the McCain team's bleak outlook on the next week is really distressing. Sure, you try to foresee the bad news coming, but do you predict the sky is going to fall, just so when a hailstorm hits, it doesn't seem so bad? C'mon guys...
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4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Bart and Brett Maverick don't need to worry, Hillary is going to f' over Barack Hussein Obama Junior worse than her fellow travellers ever did Senator McCain in the Hanoi Hilton.

The press will find some poll that shows a "bump", but, as abortion rights are on the donkey's platform, it will be aborted.

Thoroughbred 401k said...

You are correct already, Anon. The Obama camp is saying this am that NBC has a poll saying the support number for Obama by ex-Hillarites is now 70%. Joe Biden really does carry some clout..

Anonymous said...

I have been interviewed this week by Clear Channel, CBS News NYC, The NY Times, The State and the Charlotte Observer. Wanting a Delegate point of view. All the questions and surveys that they offer is misleading and pointed left. I have been asked by three of them if I could be interviewed on the convention floor in St. Paul and only under the conditions that any question that is asked I give my opinion and not one that is manafactured for them. The polls are close but McCain wins in the end.

earlcapps said...

Mike - Hillary Clinton supporters are mostly hardcore Democrats, so I would have a hard time seeing a majority swing over to support McCain.

The polling never showed more than about 25% of Clinton supporters willing to support McCain. When you consider this, to see 70% of her supporters backing Obama really isn't all that surprising. The convention is forcing the rest who were still wavering to make up their minds.

But I'll bet the 20-25% will pretty much stick with McCain in the end.